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Statistic: Total Possible Yards vs Actual Yards Gained - Buckeyes, Hawkeyes, Wolverines

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Buckeye_Wizard's picture
10/27/22 at 11:14a in the OSU Football Forum
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Thought I would share a stat that I look at when trying to decide if a team is "dominating" or not. For my own curiosity, I calculate the following for teams I wish to evaluate:

Actual Yards Gained/Total Possible Yards.

Actual yards is easy to understand, it is the actual yards gained by the offense. 

Total Possible Yards is found by adding the distance from the starting field position to the goal line for every offensive possession.  That is, if your offense starts the first three drives on your own 20 yard line, each drive has a maximum potential of 80 yards to gain.  In total, the most your offense can gain is 240 yards in these three drives.

I call this ratio the "Potency" factor. It demonstrates, as a percentage, how "potent" your offense is against the opposing defense. 

For example, in 2020 during the Alabama/Ole Miss game, Alabama's offense gained 723 actual yards versus a potential total yards of 764 yards. This would mean the "potency" factor for Alabama's offense against Ole Miss was 723/764 = 94.6%.  It is really difficult to defeat a team when they have gained 94.6% of the potential yards possible.  Alabama scored touchdowns on 9 out of 11 drives in this game and won the game 63-48. 

Okay, so what does this mean for this season and how does it relate to the title of this post?  Good questions.

Let's take a look at Ohio State vs. Michigan State:

  • Ohio State: 11 drives, 896 yards possible, 614 actual yards gained
  • Potency Factor: 614/896 = 68.5%
  • Michigan State: 11 drives, 799 yards possible, 202 actual yards gained
  • Potency Factor: 202/799 = 25.3%

I believe it is easy to see why the Buckeyes won this game 49-20.

So let's look at Ohio State vs. Iowa:

  • Ohio State: 14 drives, 732 yards possible, 360 actual yards gained
  • Potency Factor: 360/732 = 49.2%
  • Iowa: 15 drives, 1106 yards possible, 188 actual yards gained
  • Potency Factor: 188/1106 = 17.0%

Again, it is easy to see why the Buckeyes won this game.

What about the team up north and Iowa? (a common opponent)

  • Michigan: 9 drives, 644 yards possible, 327 actual yards gained
  • Potency Factor: 327/644 = 50.8%
  • Iowa: 9 drives, 642 yards possible, 281 actual yards gained
  • Potency Factor: 281/642 = 43.8%

If you didn't watch this game, the score was 20-7 in the fourth quarter with Iowa inside Michigan's 10 yard line. As is a common occurrence this season, things didn't work out for Iowa and the final score ended 27-14.

For fun, here is Michigan vs. Penn State:

  • Michigan: 10 drives, 690 yards possible, 563 actual yards gained
  • Potency Factor: 563/690 = 81.6%
  • Penn State: 8 drives, 614 yards possible, 268 actual yards gained
  • Potency Factor: 268/614 = 43.7%

Again, I believe it is easy to see why Michigan won this game easily 41-17.

I understand that this statistic, like other statistics, has its faults. It is not perfect. However, I find it enjoyable to compare common opponents to determine how a possible matchup between your offense/defense may turn out against their offense/defense.

Enjoy.

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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