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Championship Odds, Heisman Odds, and Conference Odds 4 Weeks into the Season

+2 HS
Spartan13's picture
September 28, 2022 at 10:11pm

The other thread talking about OSU/UGA/Bama lines made me want to make a thread about these odds being 1/3 of the way through the season. Here are the most notable numbers from each category. 

National Championship(Vegas insider consensus averages the top casinos)-Important to consider this isnt only based on who is best but who is most likely to make the playoffs, win a semifinal, and win the championship. 

  • #1 Bama(+184 consensus)-I know a lot of people are down on Bama after the Texas game but they still have a top 5 defense and a heisman winner at QB. The schedule is interesting because they dont really play any elite teams but they have @Arkansas, A&M, @Tennessee all in a row these next 3 weeks. After that its a cakewalk. But if they make the SEC championship game 12-0 they are in the playoff. 
  • #2 UGA(+198 consensus)-Right behind Bama, they looked dominant the first couple game but we will see if that holds up. They will be untested outside of the Tennessee game. I think they appear better than they are based on style of play. Teams that cant matchup physically will have no shot of stopping them. But that offense vs OSU/Bama wont be as effective imo
  • #3 OSU(+255 consensus)-People may be surprised by the large gap but I think there are a few things at play. First if OSU slips up against PSU or Michigan we are likely out of the playoff. UGA and Bama can lose any game without a problem. Second OSU would likely to have to play the loser of the SEC championship game in the first round and then the winner in the championship. The path of needing to beat PSU/Michigan, UGA, and then Bama bumps OSU down a bit. 
  • #4 USC/Clemson(+1500)-An absolute massive gap between #3 and #4. 
  • #6 Michigan(+2540)-They are next up before another massive gap. I just dont see a reality where they can beat PSU, OSU, UGA, and Bama. 

Heisman Odds(Vegas Insider)

  • #1 CJ Stroud(+150)-Overwhelming favorite, it would be really hard to see him not win it at this point. His stats are crazy and JSN/Henderson wont be sapping any votes away like some worried about. The schedule sets up well to allow him to pad the stats while also playing in some big time games like @PSU and Michigan. Hasnt had any bad games yet
  • #2 Bryce Young(+350)-A good bit behind CJ but still pretty heavy odds. Has to overcome being a previous winner and a bad game against Texas but his stats are still solid. Winning the SEC over UGA will give him a lot of cred.
  • #3 Caleb Williams(+600)-The last of the "reasonable" bets. Caleb is coming off a clunker against Oregon State and it would take a lot for a sophomore at a west coast school to get more votes than big time names like Stroud/Young. 
  • #4 Hendon Hooker(+1600)-Tennessee QB has put up some crazy numbers in their hot start. They have both Bama and UGA on the schedule and if Hooker can look good while pulling off an upset in either game he would be a very serious threat. 

Conference odds

  • B1G- OSU(-220) Michigan(+550) PSU(+800) Minnesota(+800) Wisconsin(+1800)
    Pretty clear pecking order. OSU is overwhelming with Michigan/PSU as contenders. Then Minnesota is expected to win the West so they will atleast be in the championship game.
  • SEC- Bama(-120) UGA(+110) Tennessee(+1600)
    Nobody else is given a chance outside the top two. Bama a slight favorite which is interesting considering they have the tougher schedule
  • ACC-Clemson(-140) Miami(+650) NC State(+650)
    pretty surprised to see Clemson as big a favorite as this. They already beat Wake so they should be a lock to win the division but it would be hard for me to have to pay extra to get Clemson.
  • Pac12- USC(+160) Utah(+200) Oregon(+375) Washingto(+600)
    Pretty close race with USC the favorite and Oregon seen as a legit contender
  • Big12-Baylor(+325) OU(+325) Texas(+375) OkState(+375)
    This should be an awesome race. OU/Texas are probably the best teams but they both already have an L. Baylor/OkState were there last year. 
  • Mac-Just wanted to mention Toledo is the favorite to win the conference at +300. Would be a nice little boost for a potential #1 seed.

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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