Ohio State has won all of its games between the gridiron lines, but how is the team trending with Vegas' lines? Let's dive into some of the trends that the Buckeyes are currently riding.
Remember, past results do not guarantee future success.
Alabama vs. Ohio State (Ohio State +8.0, O/U 75.5)
| CATEGORY | RECORD |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 4–3 |
| LAST 10 | 5–5 |
| LAST 20 | 13–7 |
| LAST 30 | 16–14 |
| STREAK | WON 1 |
This season, Ohio State is undefeated on the football field and is one game above .500 against the spread. Alabama also has a perfect record and is beating the spread an impressive 67 percent of the time.
With closer inspection, both teams are 2–2 against the spread against ranked teams this season. The Crimson Tide did not defeat the spread against Florida in the SEC title game nor Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl.
Day Spread
Ryan Day has a stellar 23–1 record over his first 24 games. Against the Vegas line, he is 15–9 (.625). When facing ranked opponents, Day's record is 9–1 straight-up – but falls to 5–5 against the spread.
Looking a little closer, Day has covered the over in four of the last five games.
| CATEGORY | RECORD |
|---|---|
| LAST 5 | 3–2 |
| LAST 10 | 6–4 |
| LAST 20 | 12–8 |
| STREAK | WON 1 |
Bowl Spread
Starting with the 1998 Sugar Bowl against Florida State, the Buckeyes are 12–11 against the spread in bowl games, including 14 under and nine over total scores. The near 50/50 split continues as Ohio State is 6–4 against the spread in the last 10 bowls. Even with all of this parity, there is an apparent trend .
Since the Sugar Bowl against the Seminoles, the outcome on the field has matched the against the spread result 12 of 13 times. In fact, since the 2009 Fiesta Bowl against Texas, this trend has hit in six consecutive Ohio State bowl games. If you think Ohio State will lose to Alabama, that suggests you might want to go with the Tide and the points.
If you think the Buckeyes will cover the spread, the smart money might be to bet for the Columbus kids straight-up. Of the eight bowl games Ohio State has covered as an underdog since the '98 Sugar Bowl, the Buckeyes have won the game outright seven times.
Ohio State has won eight of the last nine against Vegas' line when spotted points.
Over/Under 75.5
| CATEGORY | RECORD |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 4–2–1 |
| LAST 10 | 5–4–1 |
| LAST 20 | 10–9–1 |
| LAST 30 | 16–13–1 |
| STREAK | OVER 1 |
In the total points scored category, Ohio State has been leaning toward the over in recent games. Starting with Rutgers on Nov. 7, the Buckeyes have hit the over in four of the last five played.
This season, the Buckeyes are scoring 43 points and allowing 22 points per game for an average total of 65. The Crimson Tide is putting up 48 and giving up 19 points for a total of 67. If these averages hold, the total should be under.
Something to ponder. Heading into this year's Sugar Bowl, Ohio State had held its opponents under 20 points in each of its last two games and Clemson had held its opponents under 20 points in each of its last three games. When the final whistle blew, the teams combined for 77 points. Well above the O/U of 65.5.
Underdog, Super Dog!
| CATEGORY | RECORD |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 1–0 |
| LAST 10 | 8–2 |
| LAST 20 | 16–4 |
| LAST 30 | 21–9 |
| BOWLS | 7–4 |
| STREAKS | LOST 1 |
Last Ten
Vegas gave 7.5 points to Ohio State last week and the Buckeyes defeated Clemson by 21. The program has been an underdog super power. Ohio State is 8–2 over the last ten against Vegas' line when spotted points. What is more amazing is that when the Buckeyes covered the spread, they also won all eight games straight up.
Starting on Jan. 2, 2012, the Buckeyes over/under has been five over and five under. However there has been a recent alternating pattern. Beginning with the 2015 Sugar Bowl the Buckeyes' over/under results have been: over, under, over, under, over... if the pattern continues, the smart play might be under.
Last 20
Peeling back some more layers, the straight-up record takes a bit of a hit when Ohio State is the underdog. Starting with the Penn State game on Oct. 25, 2008, the Buckeyes are 12–8 without the points. However, they are an incredible 16–4 against the spread, including wins in 12 of the last 14 as the dog.
 |
 |
|
| AGAINST THE SPREAD | ||
| 4–3 | 2020 | 8–4 |
| 5–5 | LAST 10 | 7–3 |
| 13–7 | LAST 20 | 13–7 |
| 16–14 | LAST 30 | 16–14 |
| WON 1 | STREAKING | LOST 2 |
| OVER/UNDER | ||
| 4–2–1 | 2020 | 7–5 |
| 5–4–1 | LAST 10 | 5–5 |
| 10–9–1 | LAST 20 | 11–9 |
| 16–13–1 | LAST 30 | 18–12 |
| OVER 1 | STREAKING | UNDER 1 |
| UNDERDOG ATS / FAVORITE ATS | ||
| 1–0 | 2020 | 8–4 |
| 8–2 | LAST 10 | 7–3 |
| 16–4 | LAST 20 | 13–7 |
| 21–9 | LAST 30 | 16–14 |
| WON 1 | STREAKING | LOST 2 |
| BOWL GAMES ATS | ||
| 2–3 | LAST 5 | 1–3–1 |
| 5–5 | LAST 10 | 4–5–1 |
| 13–7 | LAST 20 | 9–10–1 |
| WON 1 | STREAKING | LOST 1 |
Looking for an over/under edge? 12 of the last 20 games in which the Buckeyes were underdogs have gone the way of under, but that includes seven straight at the beginning of this scenario. In the last seven games, over has been the correct play five times with the Buckeyes as the underdog.
Head-To-Head
Against the spread Alabama is four games above .500 and Ohio State is one game.
Over its last 10 games, the Crimson Tide wins 70 percent of the time against the spread while the Buckeyes are at 50 percent.
The programs are tied 13–7 when comparing the last 20 games against the line. Looking at the current streak, the Crimson Tide has not covered in back-to-back games and the Scarlet and Gray did so against Clemson.
Over and Under
Both teams' games have gone over more often than under this season. However, those numbers change in games between ranked opponents. As noted above, betting under would have been the winning play in seven out of the last nine games Ohio State has faced a ranked opponent.
Against Each Other
For this category, let's focus on how Ohio State and Alabama have fared when facing each other in bowl games over the last 10 years. The sample size is extremely small. Ohio State defeated the Tide and covered spread in the 2015 Sugar Bowl.
Over was the correct call six years ago as the schools combined for 77 points in a contest Vegas put the total point line at 57.5.
Past CFP Championship Game Past Results
| YEAR | WINNER | LOSER | ATS | TOTAL | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | OHIO STATE, 42 | OREGON, 20 | UNDERDOG +6.0 | 72.5 | UNDER |
| 2016 | ALABAMA, 45 | CLEMSON, 40 | UNDERDOG +6.5 | 50.5 | OVER |
| 2017 | CLEMSON, 35 | ALABAMA, 31 | UNDERDOG +6.5 | 51.0 | OVER |
| 2018 | ALABAMA, 26 | GEORGIA, 23 | PUSH +3.0 | 50.5 | UNDER |
| 2019 | CLEMSON, 44 | ALABAMA, 16 | UNDERDOG +5.0 | 57.5 | OVER |
| 2020 | LSU, 42 | CLEMSON, 25 | FAVORITE +4.5 | 66.5 | OVER |
Three Trends
- Four times underdogs have been spotted 5.0 or more points. All four times this has occurred, the underdogs have been the correct play. Perhaps more impressive is the underdog has won straight-up 75 percent of the time.
- No matter the size of the point spread, the favored team has covered only once. Last year, LSU (-4.5) defeated Clemson by 17 points last year.
- If you like patterns, the over/under the championship game is currently showing an A, B, B cadence. If the pattern holds, under should be the play in Monday's game.
If past results hold, winning plays appear to be Ohio State (+8.0), OSU straight up and the under.
On The Money?
Against Clemson, the Eleven Warriors community believed in the Buckeyes. An impressive 71.2 percent of the votes selected Ohio State to cover the spread. However, only 33.2 percent correctly picked the Buckeyes to cover and for the final score to be over 65.5 points.
It's time to put your money where your mouth is. We have $100 to burn. The bets with the three highest votes is the parlay we will play.
