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Current Draft Stock of Our Draft Eligible Buckeyes- an Analysis

+14 HS
BuzzardBlaster's picture
March 24, 2019 at 2:23pm

Alright, long long time lurker...this is my first post. A little background...I have been a big NFL draft nut since my college days. Somewhere along the line I decided it would be neat to take player rankings I found on the internet and combine them into a composite draft board in a simple excel spreadsheet. The first year I did this was back in 2000 with about a dozen player rankings combined to get a rough draft board. It was very simple but it was still pretty cool to see how the board shook out against what actually happened on draft day. So I have done something similar every year since- mainly for myself and a small group of friends. I dabbled with posting them on a simple website several years ago and even had them published on a Browns fan site (the OBR) for a year or two back in the early 2000's. Anyway, over time I have developed a pretty good rating system with a few unique metrics and fine tuned and streamlined it to the point where I now currently have 29 different data sources included and can update them fairly easily (I actually used to do this manually back in the day and it took literally hours.)

So, now that we are a month out from draft day,  I thought that I would share what the data currently shows for our draft eligible Buckeyes. Keep in mind that this is a reflection of the talent value where each player falls- actual team needs have no bearing on where the player is ranked in this analysis. This is purely a measure of the player's talent value and my personal opinion has no bearing on them.


Nick Bosa

Projected round: 1st (Top 5)
Overall Rank: #1
Position rank: #1 EDGE
Composite score: 1.28
Deviation score: 1.60
talent value range: Pick #1 - Pick #2
probability #1 overall: 37.88%
probability top 5: 100.00%

According to the analysis, Nick from a talent perspective is one of the top two players in this draft class. A total of 18 ratings have him as the top player in this class - although one has him rated at #4 and another at #5 (the only other players rated as top overall are Quinnen Williams with eight total ratings and Devin White with one.) Due to team needs, he could possibly drop to #3 but at that point he is a steal.

BTW, here are the current #1 overall talent probabilities:

Overall Rk Pos Rk Pos Player College #1 Overall
1 1 EDGE Nick Bosa Ohio State 37.88%
2 1 DL Quinnen Williams Alabama 30.27%
3 2 EDGE Josh Allen Kentucky 16.47%
4 2 DL Ed Oliver Houston 7.41%
5 1 LB Devin White LSU 3.86%
7 1 QB Dwayne Haskins Ohio State 2.60%
13 2 QB Kyler Murray Oklahoma 1.52%

[Remember- this is not a measure of where a player  will get drafted as the analysis does not factor in team needs in any way- it purely measures talent level. But it does give a good idea of how far teams may reach to draft specific players to fill their needs i.e. Kyler Murray at #13 overall and 1.52% #1 overall talent probability.]


Dwayne Haskins

projected round: 1st (Top 10)
Overall Rank: #7
position rank: #1 QB
composite score: 10.00
deviation score: 8.93
talent value range: Pick #4 - Pick # 14
Probability #1 overall: 2.60%
PROBABILITY Top 5: 11.87%
PROBABILITY top 10: 70.21%
PROBABILITY top 32: 100.00%

Dwayne is the clearly rated overall #1 QB talent in this class with one site rating him as the #3 overall player. His deviation at 8.93 (which is a measure of variation of the data) does show that there is a fair amount of uncertainty on his talent level- one rater has him at 50th(!) best player in this draft class. He has an outside shot at ending up the most talented player in this class at 2.60%. He should easily be drafted within the first 10 picks and has a legitimate chance to be the #1 overall selection.



Dre'Mont Jones

projected round: 2nd
overall rank: #40
position rank: #7 DL
composite score: 43.94
deviation score: 13.64
talent value range: Pick #36 - Pick #51
probability TOP 10: 0.00%
PROBABILITY top 32: 5.24%

Prior to the combine, Dre'Mont was rated as the 36th overall player with a 27.11% Top 32 probability (Feb 23rd.), so his stock has dropped pretty significantly due to his combine performance. I am a little surprised he did not work out at pro day because he may have been able to stabilize his stock. However, he is still easily a top 64 player and is expected to be a 2nd round pick.



Parris Campbell

projected round: 2nd
overall rank: #60
position rank: #8 WR
composite score: 59.88
deviation score: 12.70
talent value range: Pick #52 - Pick #66
probability top 32: 0.41%
PROBABILITY top 64: 88.61%
PROBABILITY top 102: 100.00%

Parris' draft stock has skyrocketed since his outstanding combine performance. He has jumped from #70 (Feb 23rd) and 20.40% top 64 talent probability. Some of the raters have been late to the party so it is likely he will continue his ascent within this analysis. Reading the tea leaves, it appears he now has an outside shot at a 1st round selection. However, he should definitely be drafted by late round 2.



Michael Jordan

projected round: 3rd to 4th
overall rank: #91
position rank: #3 OG
composite score: 100.13
deviation score: 35.09
talent value range: Pick #81 - Pick #118
probability top 64: 1.02%
PROBABILITY top 102: 67.23%
PROBABILITY top 254: 100.00%

Michael's draft stock has stayed relatively steady. His deviation score is very high at 35.09 and there is a significant lack of consensus as to where his talent truly lies- he has ratings anywhere from the 51st best player all the way to 266th best player within the data set. He will definitely be drafted but it is difficult to pin down exactly where due to the high amount of rating variation. Currently, he is most likely to be selected in the 3rd-4th round area.



Terry McLaurin

projected round: 3rd to 4th
overall rank: #101
position rank: #13 WR
composite score: 110.69
deviation score: 16.96
talent value range: Pick #101- Pick #119
probability TOP  64: 0.43%
PROBABILITY TOP 254: 100.00%

Terry has also seen a good increase in his draft stock since the combine jumping from #111 overall rank (Feb 23rd) and increasing his Top 102 talent probability from 1.04%. Many of the draft raters have been resistant to move him up drastically even though the draft rumors indicate that he may be moving into 2nd round range with one site stating that a team may be eyeing him in the 1st round. His top ranking within the data set is currently 62. I expect to see some additional upward movement in his stock but at this point the analysis is showing a 3rd round selection at best.


Kendall Sheffield

projected round: 4th
overall rank: #125
position rank: #16 CB
composite score: 134.93
deviation score: 42.36
talent value range: Pick #112 - Pick #157
probability TOP 64: 0.80%
PROBABILITY TOP 254: 100.00%

Kendall's draft stock has dropped since the combine from 113th overall player most likely due to his combine injury. His deviation of 42.36 is very high and there is very wide range of ratings within the data set from a high of 60 all the way to 359(!) best player. However, the analysis shows him solidly in the 4th round talent range. He is probably very underrated at this point.



Isaiah Prince

Projected round: 4th to 5th
overall rank: #134
position rank: #14 OT
composite score: 144.47
deviation score: 33.28
talent value range: Pick #126 - Pick #162
Probability TOP 64: 0.04%
PROBABILITY TOP 254: 100.00%

Isaiah's draft stock has stayed relatively steady. He has a pretty wide spread in ratings within the data from #82 all the way to #303 which leads to the high deviation score. Currently, he is looking like a 4th to 5th round selection and it appears he definitely will be drafted.




Mike Weber

projected round: 4th to 5th
overall rank: #136
position rank: #12 RB
composite score: 146.00
deviation score: 19.65
talent value range: Pick #134 - Pick #156
probability top 64: 0.04%
PROBABILITY top 102: 5.28%
PROBABILITY top 254: 100.00%

Mike's draft stock has improved slightly since the combine jumping from #139 overall (Feb 23rd). His lower deviation score suggests that most pundits have him rated fairly closely. He is currently rated anywhere from #87 to #237. He is also looking like a 4th to 5th round selection at this point. He definitely will be drafted.



Johnnie Dixon

projected round: PFA
overall rank: #298
position rank: #42 WR
composite score: 273.30
deviation score: 23.65
talent value range: Pick #256 - Pick #290

Johnnie has seen a nice bump in his stock from 344th best player (Feb 23rd) and 0% Top 254 Probability. His combine performance seems to have opened some eyes and it would not be surprising to see it continue to improve. At this point, he is looking like a priority free agent according to the analysis but it would not be surprising to see him move into draftable range. Another underrated prospect in my book.


So to summarize, we should expect to see 9-10 Buckeyes drafted with two in the top 10 and 2-4 first round picks possible.

To view the entire data set- see this link: https://bbnfldraft.blogspot.com/

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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