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Mailbag/Remy's Research: 2018 NFL Draft

Matt Gutridge's picture
April 26, 2018 at 6:05am
15 Comments

 

Research

11W Mailbag: Tackling your questions about the Buckeyes and the NFL Draft. 

Which of the 3 DE’s that will be drafted do you think will have the best NFL career and why? ~ SoulPatrol32

Prediction questions like this are tough. As we've seen in the past, great college careers don't necessarily dictate great NFL careers. Success at the next level is influenced by many factors. A few are how the player will be used by his new team, where the player falls on the depth chart and injuries/trades.

Without knowing which teams will draft Jalyn Holmes, Sam Hubbard and Tyquan Lewis, I will give it a stab. 

COMPARING THE ENDS
PLAYER TFL SACKS
LEWIS 37.0 23.5
HUBBARD 30.0 17.0
HOLMES 15.0 5.0

I think that the safe bet is to go with Lewis. He put up consistent numbers over the past three seasons and wreaked havoc on opposing offensive lines. The knock on Lewis is that his tackles for loss numbers have gone down the past two seasons and he isn't always disciplined.

Jalyn Holmes has long arms and is fairly quick for a DE, but that didn't translate to eye-popping numbers with the Buckeyes. NFL coaches will probably see him as a 3rd or 4th round project pick and hope their coaching and schemes will make the difference.

Sam Hubbard is the wild card. Will he stay at defensive end his entire career? He played safety in high school (Moeller) and was eventually moved to the defensive line at Ohio State. Is there a chance an NFL team will move him to outside linebacker? Probably not, but Hubbard is an athlete with size and speed. It will be interesting to see where and how he plays at the next level. 

To answer your question, if by best career you mean most consistent, I will go with Lewis. If by best you mean biggest impact/most headlines, I will take Hubbard.


Morning, Remy.  I'll keep my questions relatively simple...maybe!

  1. What is the trend of overall OSU draft picks going back to the beginning of the draft?  (I'm thinking some fancy graph)
  2. Which position has OSU drafted most over the years? ~ GoBucks10

GoBucks10, let's tackle the second question first. There are two ways to answer this query: position the player was listed during his final season at Ohio State and the position he was drafted at by the NFL.

The numbers if we go by the NFL Draft listed position:

Ohio State NFL Draft Selections By Position (1936-2017)
POS 1R TOTAL   HIGHEST DRAFTED PLAYER YEAR TEAM ROUND OVERALL
LB 12 60   TOM COUSINEAU 1979 BILLS 1 1
DB 9 45   JIM McDONALD 1938 EAGLES 1 2
WR 8 43   TERRY GLENN 1996 PATRIOTS 1 7
RB 11 41   HOPALONG CASSADY 1956 LIONS 1 3
T 5 34   CHRIS WARD 1978 JETS 1 4
G 1 26   KURT SCHUMACHER 1975 SAINTS 1 12
C 1 20   NICK MANGOLD 2006 JETS 1 29
B 0 20   BOB BRUGGE 1948 BEARS 6 44
DE 5 19   JOEY BOSA 2016 CHARGERS 1 3
OT 7 17   ORLANDO PACE 1997 RAMS 1 1
CB 8 16   SHAWN SPRINGS 1997 SEAHAWKS 1 3
QB 2 16   ART SCHLICHTER 1982 COLTS 1 4
OG 2 13   JOHN HICKS 1974 GIANTS 1 3
DT 2 12   DAN WILKINSON 1994 BENGALS 1 1
FB 2 10   BOB FERGUSON 1962 STEELERS 1 5
TE 1 10   RICKEY DUDLEY 1996 RAIDERS 1 9
E 0 5   DEAN DUGGER 1955 EAGLES 4 46
OE 0 5   CHUCK BRYANT 1962 CARDINALS 3 34
SS 1 4   DONTE WHITNER 2006 BILLS 1 8
K 0 4   MIKE NUGENT 2005 JETS 2 47
P 0 4   TOM SKLADANY 1977 BROWNS 2 46
SAF 0 3   VONN BELL 2016 SAINTS 2 61
OLB 0 2   MARCUS FREEMAN 2009 BEARS 5 154
S 0 2   RICK SEIFERT 1973 JETS 8 194
FS 0 1   KURT COLEMAN 2010 EAGLES 7 244
ILB 0 1   STEVE TOVAR 1993 BENGALS 3 59
NT 0 1   PETE CUSICK 1975 PATRIOTS 3 66
T/G 0 1   SCOTT DANNELLEY 1976 BENGALS 17 482
                 
TOTAL 77 435     AVG   2.8 56.1

Important Notes:

  • The position listed by the NFL is the position listed in the table above. I did not combine any positions. A player drafted at OLB was not moved to LB.
  • The reason for not combining positions is because players drafted at B (back) and E (end) could have played running back, quarterback, defensive back, defensive end, tight end or wide receiver at the next level. It is easier, and more accurate, to stay with the position listed by the player's name by the NFL than to research the position the player ended up playing.

I ran out of time, but I will create your draft graph. Look for it as a new forum post in the future.


What’s the most drafted Ohio State position group? ~ Fatpants

Fatpants, this is the perfect follow-up question. You're a numbers guy, so I'll give it to you straight:

DRAFT PICKS BY POSITION GROUP
POSITION GROUP TOTAL PICKS 1ST RD PICKS
OFFENSIVE LINE 84* 14
RUNNING BACK** 72 14
LINEBACKER 63 12
SECONDARY 61 17
WR/TE*** 43 10
DEFENSIVE LINE 41 9
QUARTERBACK 29 3
PUNTER 3 0
KICKER 2 0
Average# 56.1 9.9

*Bob Myers is counted once, not twice
**Includes tailbacks and fullbacks
***WR and TE are combined because early players listed at "end" sometimes were receivers.
#Punter and kicker were not included in the average as they do not matter. #puntersandkickersmatter 

  • Does an Ohio State player get drafted by an Ohio team this year?
  • Why does Billy Price seem to be slipping on draft boards? Pec tears aren't really an Earth-shattering type of injury. ~ 703Buckeye

703Buckeye, 
History predicts that Cincinnati and Cleveland will pass on Buckeye players during the 2018 draft. Reid Fragel was the last Buckeye selected by an Ohio NFL team. The Bengals took him in 2013 with the 240th pick in round 7. The last time the Browns dipped into Ohio State's talent pool was back in 2009 with Brian Robiskie. 

Cincinnati has participated in the draft every year since 1968. Over those 50 years, the Bengals have selected a total of 17 Buckeyes. That is an average of one Ohio State player every 2.9 years. However, those numbers are skewed as Cincinnati has only selected two Buckeyes between 1995 and today.

1950 was the first year for the Browns to be involved with the NFL Draft. Over the years, Cleveland has drafted 32 Ohio State players. No other team in the league has drafted more men of the Scarlet and Gray.

However, like Cincinnati, those numbers are misleading. Since 1978, the Browns have selected four Ohio State players. Based on the trends, I would hedge that the Bengals and Browns will go through another draft without taking an Ohio State player. Shame on them.

As far as Billy Price goes, I don't have any extra insight as to why he is apparently falling down the draft board. It is probably based solely on the injury. I would be surprised if it was due to off the field issues.

I met the young man and his dad at the D1 football championships in Canton. They were class acts and I became an instant fan of the unheralded defensive line recruit. I wish him the best during the draft and hope his name is called sooner, rather than later.  


Which Buckeye currently not expected to get drafted will and who takes the flier on him?  ~ NHBuckeye

NHBuckeye, as you are probably aware, J.T. Barrett, TE Marcus Baugh, WR Ejijaah Goins, DT Michael Hill, S Erick Smith, DT Tracy Sprinkle, LB Zach Turnure and LB Chris Worley are the most likely players not to hear their name during the draft.

I will omit Barrett, Buagh and Worley from my choices because they are being given a chance to get selected. Of the players remaining, I will not be surprised if a team takes a chance on Erick Smith or Tracy Sprinkle. Smith is a hard hitter and Sprinkle can add depth to a defensive line. 

I just hope if Sprinkle's name is called, he doesn't celebrate at a certain lounge in Lorain with the initials G&S.


Where did Matt Snell go in the NFL draft as compared to the AFL draft? ~ Lamplighter

Lampligher,
In 1964 the New York Giants selected Snell in the 4th round with the 49th overall pick. The same year, the New York Jets took Snell with the third pick of the 1st round of the AFL Draft.

Snell played on both sides of the ball with the Buckeyes, but was drafted as a running back by both the Jets and Giants. He signed with the Jets and was a contributor in the victory over the Colts in Super Bowl III.

What team is the best fit for JTB IV?  And if so, why pick him over Lagow? ~ McBane

McBane,
Your first question can be viewed from two different angles, as a fan and as the player. As a fan, I would say any team (if there is one) that selects Barrett would be the best fit for him. Being brutally honest, the reports from the scouts and combine results have not been positive for JTB IV. 

The best team from the player's perspective depends on what the player wants. Does he want early playing time or a chance to learn and play later? If I was in Barrett's spot and I wanted to learn the game and wait, I would prefer to go to Green Bay or Seattle. Barrett doesn't have the arm strength or speed of Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, but he would benefit from learning from two of the best passing and scrambling quarterbacks in the league.

And if so, why pick him over Lagow?

I'm not touching that question.   

Nope

What would the Browns' roster look like today if the franchise drafted the best available Buckeye over the last number of years instead of their usual plan of abusing meth while drafting? ~ OSU_ALUM_05

BROWNS 1ST PICK AND HIGHEST DRAFTED BUCKEYE AVAILABLE
YEAR BUCKEYE AVAILABLE   BROWNS' PICK
1999 DAVID BOSTON   TIM COUCH
2000 AHMED PLUMMER   COURTNEY BROWN
2001 NATE CLEMENTS   GERARD WARREN
2002 LeCHARLES BENTLEY   WILLIAM GREEN
2003 MIKE DOSS   JEFF FAINE
2004 WILL SMITH   KELLEN WINSLOW
2005 MIKE NUGENT*   BRAYLON EDWARDS
2006 BOBBY CARPENTER   KAMERION WIMBLEY
2007 ANTHONY GONZALEZ   JOE THOMAS
2008** LARRY GRANT   BEAU BELL
2009 BEANIE WELLS   ALEX MACK
2010 THADDEUS GIBSON   JOE HADEN
2011 CAMERON HEYWARD   PHILLIP TAYLOR
2012 MIKE ADAMS   TRENT RICHARDSON
2013 JOHNATHAN HANKINS   BARKEVIOUS MINGO
2014 RYAN SHAZIER   JUSTIN GILBERT
2015 DEVIN SMITH   DANNY SHELTON
2016 TAYLOR DECKER*   COREY COLEMAN
2017 MARSHON LATTIMORE   MYLES GARRETT

*Vonn Bell and Michael Thomas were also available.


Gonna ask this but not because I want it to happen ----- Are there any potential busts in this group of Buckeyes that you can think of? ~ Seattle Linga

Linga?
Seattle Linga?

Way to be a Debbie Downer, Linga. A day in which young men are excited about their future pro careers and you want to know who is going to flame-out and suck at their job. Geesh.

I won't duck your question, so here goes. Damon Webb might be the player that has the most difficult time adjusting his game to the NFL. I will be glad if I'm wrong.


Do the Browns only draft players that suck or do Browns cause the players to suck?  Kind of a chicken or egg thing. ~ NewPhilaFan

Cue the "Why not both?" girl.


Going to keep recent events in the mix, Remy.

How about who was the last active NFL player, who played at OSU under Earle Bruce. I'm thinking it's Tupa, but I'd like to engage your superior research skillz. ~ Hovenaut

Hovenaut, Tupa is a good guess...and it's the correct answer. Tupa retired from the NFL after spending the 2004-05 season on the injured reserve list. He was on an NFL roster for 17 consecutive seasons.

Another Tupa fact, which I'm sure you know, is that he was the first player to convert a two-point conversion in NFL history. He ran in a fake extra-point against the Bengals during the first game of the 1994 season.


How many UFA Buckeyes have ultimately made NFL active rosters? ~ NOLABuckey

Between 1937 through 2017 I was able to find 96 Buckeyes to sign as undrafted free agents. This number is low and I don't believe it to be correct. I used this page from Ohio State to find players not drafted through 2012. I already had the database for the 25 undrafted free agents during Urban Meyers' tenure. 

UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS DURING THE MEYER ERA
YEAR PLAYER POS TEAM
2012 JAKE BALLARD TE PATRIOTS
2012 MICHAEL BREWSTER C JAGUARS
2012 DANE SANZENBACHER WR BENGALS
2013 ZACH BOREN FB/LB TEXANS
2013 GARRETT GOEBEL DL RAMS
2013 TRAVIS HOWARD CB TEXANS
2013 OHRIAN JOHNSON S TEXANS
2013 ETIENNE SABINO LB GIANTS
2013 JAKE STONEBURNER TE PACKERS
2014 C.J. BARNETT S GIANTS
2014 DREW BASIL K FALCONS
2014 COREY BROWN WR PANTHERS
2014 CHRIS FIELDS WR REDSKINS
2014 KENNY GUITON QB BILLS
2014 JORDAN HALL RB STEELERS
2014 MARCUS HALL G COLTS
2014 ANDREW NORWELL G PANTHERS
2015 DARRYL BALDWIN OL RAVENS
2015 STEVE MILLER DE PANTHERS
2015 ROD SMITH RB SEAHAWKS
2016 CHASE FARRIS OL LIONS
2016 TYVIS POWELL S SEAHAWKS
2017 CAM JOHNSTON P EAGLES
2017 COREY SMITH WR BENGALS
2017 DONTRE WILSON RB CHARGERS


Why do the Browns hate drafting buckeyes?  
Seriously.  Why God?  Why?
 ~ FitzBuck

I asked God several times for you, but did not receive an answer. I guess that means your question is even too difficult for the all-knowing and powerful.

However, I did find this on the internet...so it must be true:

God Hates The Browns? The internet says so.

Thank you to everybody who asked a question, without them this piece is not possible. Have fun watching the NFL Draft tonight, even if your team chooses poorly.

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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