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Comparing 2014 vs 2015-20+yd plays

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JohnnyKozmo's picture
October 6, 2015 at 10:31am
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Posted this in the Skull Session, but figured it would get lost, and would be better discussed in it's own thread:

So took a few minutes and went through the play by play portion of the box scores for the first 5 games of 2014 and 2015 and counted the # of 20+ yard plays by the offense, and totaled up the yardages for comparison:

-2014-31 (Navy-4, VT-7, KSU-5, Cinci-5, MD-10).  Average of those 31 plays was 31.5 yards.  The Maryland game had the most 20+ plays (10) and the most yardage (261), but the highest average was the the Kent St game with a 38.2 average on the five 20+ yard plays.

-2015-30 (VT-10, Haw-2, NIU-2, WMU-6, Indy-10).  Average of those 30 plays was 34.9 yards.  The VT and Indy games tied with the most (10), with the Indy game having more yards (380) than the VT game (370), thus the higher average of 38.0 per 20+ yard play.  

Some other interesting takes.  There have been 9 40+ yard plays this year, versus just 6 this time last year.  While the total # of 20+ yard plays is almost identical, the range between the totals by game somewhat supports my theory of this offense living and dying by the big play.  There have been 2 games of only two 20+ yard plays this year (Haw and NIU) and 2 games of ten 20+ yard plays (VT and Indy).  In 2014, the lowest total was 4, with two 5s, a 7 and a 10.  The Maryland game last year featured 10 such plays, with the range being from 20-35 yards, by far the lowest range of any of the 3 games with ten 20+ yard plays.  

Anyone can spin statistics how they want, but to me, I've been saying (and not in a negative way) that Cardale is the high risk, high reward option.  The big plays have been bigger than in 2014.  However, the offense has also shown a propensity to be streaky, which is the down side of living by the big play.  Based on these statistics alone, the JT led offense was a little more consistent in getting big plays, but they weren't always as big.  

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