I got into an argument in the game thread about this but I wanted to do a quick probability analysis of why it's always correct to foul late in the game.

Okay numbers breakdown. I will estimate the opponents chances of making a 3 at around 25%. The guy shooting the 3 will probably have a better percentage than that but the shot will be more contested than usual so let's go with 25%.

Let's say their FT shooter is better than yours. Say he's 80%. His odds to make both FTs is 64%. Your shooter is 70%. His odds to make both FTs is 49%. So there's only a 15% chance of that happening. And even if it does happen, they have to score a bucket. Let's give that a 50% chance. So that would be 7.5% chance vs a 25% chance.

Let's say there is even enough time for two cycles of FTs for both teams. Then there's a 30% chance of them gaining a point on you from FTs. But they still have to make a bucket after that so it gives them a 15% chance again. Not even close to the 25% of making a three and this is with 2 cycles of free throws each. Plus does someone really have a 50% chance of making a bucket going full court with 6 seconds or less on the clock? I'm being generous there.

Now there is the odds of a turnover or offensive rebound but does that come anywhere close to making up the 10% difference in 2 cycles or the 17.5% chance over one cycle? Offensive rebound odds is like 1% so turnover odds would need to be close to 10% on it's own for even 2 cycles.

Now there's the argument of "it's risky to take the foul in the half court, they could recognize that and draw a foul." I don't have the numbers to back that up, but I feel if you're worried about fouling, you're a lot more likely to foul a 3 point shooter trying to do a hard contest then taking a foul when they're dribbling. When I see 3 FTs at the end of the game to tie, it's usually a foul that game on a shot contest. You need to practice and execute giving a foul and know to back off if you see them trying to go in a haphazard shooting motion to draw a foul. Refs are also pretty good at not giving FTs unless it was a legitimate shooting motion.

So there's really no reason not to foul in these scenarios. This isn't rocket science. The best coaches always foul. Very disappointed Holtmann didn't last night, big mistake and I hope he doesn't do it again.