After last night’s loss to Maryland, I thought I’d take a look at where the Buckeyes, our past opponents, and our next 6 opponents (through February 1st) are rated in five rating services: Kenpom (KP), Massey (M), Sagarin (S), Bart Torvik (BT), and NET.  Of course, each of these services rate teams according to their own algorithms, so I don’t think it’s necessary to get caught up in the individual numbers.  It is more important, in my opinion, to pay attention to the relative strengths of the teams in each of the services.  I think this will give us an idea of how well the Buckeyes should do (wins and losses) in the next 6 games.

Through January 7th games, OSU is rated #4 (KP), #19 (M), #16 (S), #6 (BT), and #14 (NET).

Wins are:

(n) Kentucky (11-3) - #15 (KP), #28 (M), #12 (S), #29 (BT), and #27 (NET)

Villanova (11-3) - #20 (KP), #14 (M), #17 (S), #31 (BT), and #19 (NET)

Penn State (12-3) - #27 (KP), #18 (M), #25 (S), #24 (BT), and #24 (NET)

Cincinnati (8-6) - #57 (KP), #88 (M), #61 (S), #58 (BT), and #85 (NET)

@North Carolina (8-6) - #59 (KP), #71 (M), #55 (S), #97 (BT), and #103 (NET)

Kent State (12-3) - #94 (KP), #85 (M), #94 (S), #108 (BT), and #80 (NET)

And 5 cupcakes.

Losses are:

@Maryland (13-2) - #7 (KP), #8 (M), #7 (S), #15 (BT), and #12 (NET)

(n) West Virginia (12-2) - #13 (KP), #9 (M), #8 (S), #9 (BT), and #11 (NET)

Wisconsin (9-5) - #21 (KP), #32 (M), #24 (S), #21 (BT), and #26 (NET)

@Minnesota (8-6) - #39 (KP), #47 (M), #35 (S), #22 (BT), and #40 (NET)

Frankly, I was surprised at how much these services like Wisconsin, despite their 9-5 record.

Next 6: 

@Indiana (11-3) - #42 (KP), #33 (M), #46 (S), #41 (BT), and #44 (NET)

Nebraska (7-8) - #137 (KP), #131 (M), #111 (S), #138 (BT), and #150 (NET)

@Penn State (12-3) - #27 (KP), #18 (M), #25 (S), #24 (BT), and #24 (NET)

Minnesota (8-6) - #39 (KP), #47 (M), #35 (S), #22 (BT), and #40 (NET)

@Northwestern (5-8) - #105 (KP), #166 (M), #125 (S), #102 (BT), and #161 (NET)

Indiana (11-3) - #42 (KP), #33 (M), #46 (S), #41 (BT), and #44 (NET)

I believe OSU should win a minimum of 4 games out of the next six:  Nebraska, Minnesota, and Indiana at home, and at Northwestern.  To date, Nebraska (0-3), Minnesota (0-4), and Indiana (0-2) are winless on the road, and Northwestern is just not a good team and has a losing record at home.  OSU's relative ratings in each of the services are much stronger than the ratings for these 4 teams.

That leaves the two other road games.  I believe we’ll lose at Penn State (at 9-0, they are tough at home, and they play good defense), but I think the Buckeyes have a great chance at stealing the win at Indiana.  They are 9-1 at home, but according to Kenpom, Indiana is #59 in adjusted defensive efficiency.  Just for comparison, the adjusted defensive efficiency for West Virginia is #4, Maryland is #8, Wisconsin is #19, Kentucky is #26, and Penn State is #36.  OSU’s adjusted defensive efficiency is #6.  I think OSU can score on Indiana and keep them from scoring.

Anyway, barring further injury/illness, my expectation is a 5-1 record over the next three weeks.  This will allow OSU to build some momentum going into Ann Arbor on February 4th.