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Looking at the Rest of the Season

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BuckeyeBen7.7's picture
January 10, 2018 at 2:07pm
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The Buckeyes currently stand at 13-4 overall. One could argue that they could be 15-2 after losing some late leads against Butler and Clemson in back to back games. That aside, the Bucks are also currently 4-0 in Big Ten play, only a half game back from Purdue for first place. Ken Pom currently has them ranked at 33, which to my knowledge is the highest the Buckeyes have been ranked all year. By all indications, this is an up and coming team that has the potential to accomplish much more than a vast majority of us thought (except Dan Dakich. I don't know what he saw back in November, but that statement isn't looking as crazy as it used to). So after the big, eye opening win against Sparty on Sunday that nobody saw coming except for the BasketBucks themselves, I thought it would be a great time to take a look ahead to see what the rest of the season might hold and just how far this team could go.

For this forum post's purpose, we're not gonna assume that the Buckeyes will play like they did against Sparty every night. While it's plausible they play like that at times, saying they'll play like that consistently is jumping the gun. However, they've also proved themselves a bit, and shown that they've grown from the team they were just a month ago. I think that assuming they will typically play at a level somewhere between Iowa and MSU is safe and smart. So that's what we'll use below. I am also assuming that the opponents will play at a level similar to what they are playing now. 

SCHEDULE:

Thu. Jan 11 - Maryland: Maryland had the potential to make some noise in the Big Ten, but the loss of Justin Jackson really hurts. This is a bit of a trap game for the Bucks after the big win, but being at home, I think they get the W.

Sun. Jan 14 - @ Rutgers: Rutgers is Rutgers, enough said.

Wed. Jan 17 - @ Northwestern: Another team that was picked to finish in the top of the conference this year, Northwestern has not played well against any decent team all year. They have several large losses. The Bucks haven't played well in Chicago of late, but they should get this win.

Sat. Jan 20 - Neutral vs Minnesota: A preseason top 25 team, Minnesota has lost two of their best players, Amir Coffey and Reggie Lynch to injury and suspension respectively. They've had some uninspiring wins and bad losses of late, and the Buckeyes should be able to pull out a victory in Madison Square Garden.

Mon. Jan 22 - Nebraska: Nebraska has played several good teams close (Kansas and Purdue), but has yet to secure anything close to being considered a quality win, a problem for most Big Ten teams. They also have 6 losses. It's at home and this should give the Buckeyes another W.

Thu. Jan 25 - Penn State: PSU might be better at basketball than they used to be, but that's not saying much. Buckeye W.

Tue. Jan 30 - Indiana: Indiana has some ugly losses this season. Not only did they lose to Indiana St. and Fort Wayne, but they got blown out by them. They did play Duke close, but I feel like that was more of an anomaly than it wasn't. The loss of De'Ron Davis (9.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg) doesn't help matters. Bucks win.

Sun. Feb 4 - Illinois: It's getting hard to decide which team is worse. Illinois football or Illinois basketball? Probably the football team, but that won't stop the basketball team from getting whipped in Columbus.

Wed. Feb 7 - @ #5 Purdue: Easily the biggest game left on the schedule. We'll learn a lot more about this team after this game. Purdue has not lost since their underwhelming performance in the Bahamas, and they've looked the part of a top 10 team since. It would be hard to pick the Buckeyes if it was in Columbus, but with the game being in West Layayette, I don't see the Bucks pulling this one off. They'll keep it within 10 or so, but Purdue will get the victory.

Sat. Feb 10 - Iowa: The Hawkeyes are not playing good basketball right now, plain and simple. And after beating them on the road, there is little reason to assume the Bucks won't win in Columbus.

Thu. Feb 15 - @ Penn State: Same as the earlier Penn State game. It will be closer than it was in Columbus, but there isn't much to suggest they'll be able to beat the Bucks.

Sun. Feb 18 - @ Michigan: Outside of Purdue, this is the toughest test remaining. Michigan is playing well of late, having rattled off 7 straight wins after falling in Columbus. Purdue ended that streak the other night in Ann Arbor, but barely. Purdue needed a tie-breaking free throw with 4 seconds left to pull out the 1 point win. OSU has the ability to win this game, but it will be tough. That being said, gun to my head, I'd say Michigan gets revenge in a game that goes down to the wire. SIDE NOTE: A gun to my head is the only way I'd EVER pick Michigan over the Buckeyes.

Tue. Feb 20 - Rutgers: .... Lol

Fri. Feb 23 - @ Indiana: Assembly Hall is never an easy place to play, and it will be Senior Night in Bloomington. By seasons end, I could see Indiana being a trendy pick to pull off the upset. However, we're not prognosticating if they'll improve; we're using teams right now as our reference. It might be close, but this means a Buckeye victory.

As you can see, the schedule lines up favorably for the Buckeyes. They only play MSU and Purdue once, and play a majority of the bad teams twice. If the season plays out as I detailed above (12-2), the Buckeyes would finish the regular season at 25-6 and 16-2 in conference. I wouldn't be surprised if they win at Michigan, and they have the ability to beat Purdue. However, they could also very easily lose a game that they shouldn't, especially one of the road games. The chance of an unpredicted win and an unpredicted loss cancel each other out. At 16-2, the Buckeyes would most likely finish as a 2 or 3 seed in the Big Ten Tournament depending on how Purdue and MSU finish their seasons. This means not playing until Friday, which is a huge advantage. They should be able to get 1 win in the tournament. They could also win the whole thing. We'll say they win 1 then lose the second, that way we don't over estimate them. That would put the Buckeyes at 26-7 on the year. They would have no bad losses, and a 2-3 quality wins. Personally, I think this would get us a minimum of a 7 seed, and as high as a 4 seed. I'm not Joe Lunardi, so giving a wide range is the only was I can be sure of anything. A 4-7 seed means that the Buckeyes will be in a position where they could make a run. It also means the team they play in the opening round will be good enough to beat them. Who knows what happens. It's called March Madness for a reason. SIDE NOTE: This will not stop me from taking the Buckeyes all the way. Not saying I will, but I'm also not saying I won't.

All in all, this Buckeye team has a legit chance to make the tournament. Not just as a lowly 10 or 11 seed, but as a favorite to win their first game. This team could also fall on their face and miss the tournament completely. They're not that good yet. They could also win out. They've shown they can play well enough to beat just about anybody. Either way, I think that they make the tournament and this is much more than we all expected. We can be proud of this team. Go Bucks!

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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