TTUN Scandal CCCXXII

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PremierDrum responds to questions on how the final penalties might look if Michigan had already rejected the "minimum framework":

This is a great opportunity to revisit.

Initially, there was a ton of speculation around the idea that "if that's the minimum acceptable, how much worse could it get?" Many aspects of the framework as reported are squarely in line with the prescribed core penalties (i.e. the core penalty for aggravated FTM is a 1-3 year postseason ban). Alteration of records has always been what seemed to catch folks up, as most incorrectly believe that records are only vacated for ineligible student athletes. The COI has broad freedoms in applying punishments that exist within the sanction structure as they see appropriate.

I think - and this is an informed assumption at this point - is that the motivation for UM to have settled within the framework would have been more with timing and less with holding out for less severe sanctions. Had they accepted around the time things were first presented one year ago this week, their punishments could be wrapping up after this season.

While each COI panel is different, there has been a noticeable emphasis in decisions over the past year or so on self-reporting, cooperation, and reaching negotiated agreements. And, as we've seen, vacation of records is a very routine sanction in decisions.

It's interesting to hear Spiro tonight talk about the radical mood shift up north in the last 36 hours or so, a strong "sense of impending doom." He said that today, staffers were given initial coaching on not responding to media requests or commenting publicly once things were released.

I was texting with Intrinsic today on a few topics, and shared with him that my source said this morning that they (UM) were "operating under the assumption that an infractions decision and case summary are imminent" but that they weren't in the notification window yet.

A compliance attorney told me that this week would "be the target" given the ramp up to this season and the impact on UM's staff.

It's unavoidable. They are expecting it any moment.

Their insiders have cued up their red meat greatest hits of Ryan Day's brother, their most public booster is melting down in a seemingly-drunken rage of conspiracy theories and poor grammar, and their golden boy / pariah can't stop defending all the things he "didn't do" on Twitter. They aren't comfortable. They're squirming.

And THE world-famous Ohio State Buckeyes are the defending National Champions.

BlueAnon poked the ~~bear~~ bun:

Last night's posts apparently touched a nerve, so what the hell?

"Nobody we talked to saw this coming. The fact that the NCAA leaked to a couple of Bucknut bloggers tells you everything you need to know about this 'investigation.'" -near future Chris Balas, probably

The sanctions are coming down - very soon - and these people will continue melting down.

They'll make fun of my (gorgeous, I might add) hair, they'll call me a nerd. They'll email me pictures of my house and text me weird things about my family. It won't change their outcome.

Boob Salsa et al will act shocked, and they'll soothe the masses with cries of "OVERREACH!" and promises to fight back. It won't change their outcome.

Uncle T will flail about, pissing wild conspiracy theories into the wind. His delusions could put the Day family and others back into real danger. His "binders" will be as empty as his intellect. It won't change their outcome.

Warde will buy as much time as possible - at least as long as his keycard works - bloviating about "examining options" and "unfair practices." It won't change their outcome.

They'll appeal, and might be granted a temporary stay of enforcement for some sanctions. It won't change their outcome, but it could push their clock back even further.

For our maize and blue counterparts who lurk here at the grownup's table: The sanctions are coming very, very soon.

Strip out every bit of fandom, homerism, and all of our reporting. Factually speaking:

- The charges against the university, former coaches, and the current head coach are serious.

- The university did not self report violations. Not only did they fail to cooperate, multiple staffers - including your current head coach - actively destroyed evidence or otherwise hindered the investigation.

- There is contemporaneous reporting that on the day NCAA enforcement staff notified UM that they would be on campus for interviews, Harbaugh sent his coaches out on the road to recruit.

- They thumbed their noses as the process and publicly ridiculed investigators throughout.

- The NCAA received a full investigative file from a UM whistleblower, giftwrapped and ready to go.

- The scheme, for which enforcement staff received planning documents, refined assets, ticket transactions, and activity logs, impacted the outcome of games.

- Many aspects of "the framework" sit squarely within the core penalties for the aggravated charges UM et al are facing.

- UM added a 13th game to next season, in Germany, against a shitty MAC school?

- You're screwed.

- Go Bucks.

Buckaroo Banzai digs into what happens if Michigan appeals and requests a stay of punishments. Delaying the punishments is as good as theirs, if they want it. Winning the appeal, not so much, in recent years, thanks to an amendment. It's a good read, so I recommend clicking through. A selected quote from a law journal:

"The 2008 amendment removed the word 'inappropriate,' and imposed a standard that allows reversal only if the Committee on Infractions’ penalty is 'excessive such that it constitutes an abuse of discretion.' This legislative change has had a dramatic impact: since February 2008, fifteen of seventeen appealed decisions have been upheld in their entirety by the Infractions Appeals Committee."

The NOA is coming soon...