Rankings based on who controls their own destiny. Not too many major changes since last week, but Tennessee's loss give's a bit more clarity. We are down to 9 teams with any shot of making the playoffs with 2 weeks to go. Several of these teams play each other and we should see a pretty clear picture emerge.
Total Destiny (>99%):
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- TCU
- Michigan
No surprises or changes here.
Strong Chance (75-95%):
Listed in order
- LSU (94%)
- USC (86%)
- Clemson (78%)
There's a Chance (25-50%):
- Oregon (40%)
- Kansas State (26%)
TCU and Michigan hung on. Michigan I believe could have afforded a loss and still made it if they win next week, but it's moot. TCU has a mere 41% chance of winning out, and Michigan only 28%. Lock in 2 spots for Georgia/B1G Champ, and next in line is TCU with 0 losses. The last spot would likely go to USC if Georgia wins out. If LSU wins out, I expect Georgia and LSU to make it. If TCU slips, which is more likely than not, the pick I said a while back is very much alive - Clemson. I know they are trash but they will have more respect than a 1-loss TCU that scrapes by every week. I could see Ohio State with 1-loss edging out both teams (ND common opponent to Clemson) if they lose in a reasonable fashion. Michigan probably could make a case if they keep it close on the road as well. Clemson is not a lock to win out - they face a South Carolina rival who just came off a shellacking of Tennessee. Are the Gamecocks for real or will they have a letdown game with two important games in back to back weeks?
My personal prediction of what is the most likely to happen - two Big Ten teams make the playoffs! Albeit it will be 2 Big Ten teams from 2025.
- Georgia (13-0)
- Ohio State (13-0)
- Clemson (12-1)
- Michigan (11-1)
- Oregon (11-2)
- USC (11-2)
- Tennessee (10-2)
- Kansas State (11-2)
- TCU (12-1) (loses to Kansas State)
- Penn State (10-2)
