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Is Notre Dame Really a Lock for the CFP?

+1 HS
BuckeyeNut2012's picture
December 1, 2018 at 4:56pm

I'll preface this by saying, I personally don't think they'll be left out at all. But hear me out.


Assuming all the favorites win tonight. Oklahoma is probably in. Alabama and Clemson would be in. But are we so sure Notre Dame is a lock for the playoffs if we hammer Northwestern?

  • 1 less game played this us
  • Same amount of wins
  • 1 less ranked win
  • Two common opponents, we'd have fared much better than they did in those games
    • They only beat Missagain by a TD
    • For a time in the 4th, they were only up by 3 points on Northwestern
  • No conference championship 
  • Last impressions matter
    • Their last impressions to the committee was squeaking by a 6-6 USC team and sitting out a week
    • Ours would be a thrashing of both Missagain and then Northwestern in a title game

The way I see it is that 2018 Notre Dame is just like 2014 FSU who didn't belong in the playoffs at all. They went undefeated and got waxed by Oregon in the semifinals. The committee's job is to place the 4 best teams, not the 4 most deserving teams. Notre Dame may deserve it, but they are not one of the 4 best.

And this doesn't matter too much, but in FiveThirtyEight's CFP predictor, supposing all the favorites win, both Ohio State and Notre Dame have the same chance in the get in the playoff at 64%. It could be possible Notre Dame gets jumped by 2 conference champions in the final rankings. 

Like I said, I don't think it'll happen, but if we win big, does the committee really wanna repeat that mistake and continue to send the message that it's better to sit out on conference championship weekend? 

Just some food for thought. Go Pitt?

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