Welcome (back) to the F/+ Ratings vs. AP Poll ‘analysis’. This is my third season comparing Football Outsiders’ F/+ Ratings, a statistical analytics approach to rating college football teams, to the highly erratic and sometimes suspect AP Poll, as well as the CFP Committee rankings when they hit the street later in the season
For those who are new to this, F/+ is an advanced analytics rating of each FBS team. It combines two separate indices created by really smart guys, who understand football and math: Bill Connelly’s S&P+ and Brian Fremeau’s FEI. If you don’t like advanced stats, or you’re unwilling to believe that a team which lost head-to-head or has multiple losses can be good, then this will probably drive you crazy...if you let it. I like advanced analytics, because these guys look at every snap, down-and-distance, etc., and ignore garbage time and clock kills at the end of halves. They completely remove the human bias which can skew the polls. I also really appreciate their analysis because of this:
A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.
The first six weeks of F/+ ratings are only slightly better than the AP Poll, because of preseason latency. They use a lot of preseason data (assumptions) combined with recruiting rankings, and try to avoid large weekly shifts by only adding data a week at a time. The preseason bias will be gone by week six and it’s all in-season stats after that. So without further ado, here are their Top 40 ratings after Week One followed by some of my thoughts.
Observations from Week 1 data
1) Top 10. There really isn't much to say about the ratings this week. There isn’t enough statistical data in the S&P+ and FEI ratings for me to put a whole lot of credence in them…yet. I will say this, however, Bill Connelly went 61% against the spread last week using his S&P+ ratings. That’s pretty damn good working against Vegas. There are a few notable outliers in the F/+ Top 10 as compared to the AP Poll: FSU at #3 (AP #10), LSU at #7 (AP #12), Stanford at #8 (AP #14), PSU at #9 (AP #4), and UW at #13 (AP #7). These should sort themselves out over the next 3-4 weeks.
2) All the rest. The F/+ stayed relatively stable this week, despite some interesting game results. In the F/+ Top 40, NC State and Northwestern suffered the single biggest drop (five places) followed by Texas, which dropped three after losing to Maryland. Memphis enjoyed the largest F/+ gain moving up five places, followed by WSU, Miss State, and Memphis, which all jumped four spots.
Of note, IU dropped eight places following their loss to #2 Ohio State. This says a lot with only one game of stats to go off of. It means that IU looked really bad in that loss, contrary to what many OSU fans may think. In S&P+ alone, the Hoosiers lost seven places. This is unusual and speaks volumes for what the Buckeyes did to IU from a pure efficiency standpoint.
3) Things to watch. This year’s Week One F/+ looks very different from last season. Although Bama was #1 this time in 2016, their raw F/+ percentage was 74.10%. This year the Tide sits at 54.10%. I’m not sure why the large disparity. It could be returning talent, recruiting, or any number of factors. But they were never lower than 62% in 2016, and that was in Week Three.
Another factor I like to look at is offensive/defensive balance. OSU is currently the most balanced team in the S&P+ ratings: #8 on offense and # 7 on defense. The only other team ranked in the Top 10 on both sides of the ball is FSU. I can’t see that lasting through the season with their starting QB injured.
Top 25 Match-ups
Unlike previous seasons where we don’t have much to get excited about in Week Two, 2017 has brought us three, very interesting, quality, AP Top 25 match-ups.
Auburn (AP 13, F/+ 10) at. Clemson (AP 3, F/+ 4). This should be an exciting game, and I’m really interested to see how both teams play. Some are calling for Auburn to win the SEC West, and we know all to well what 2016 Clemson was capable of. Vegas set the line at Clemson -5.0 points. S&P+ says Clemson -1.5. I’m going with Clemson to win outright in Death Valley, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if Auburn pulled the upset.
UGA (AP 15, F/+ 14) at ND (AP 24, F/+ 17). According to the AP this looks like a win for the Dawgs. Vegas and S&P+ disagree. The line is currently ND -4.0, and S&P+ has ND -1.7 points. When was the last time a ranked SEC team played a true away game north of the Mason-Dixon line? LSU at Wisconsin? And this game is actually in South Bend, not Lambeau or Soldier Field. This should be a very close game, but I’m going with the Irish by a field goal, possibly in OT.
tOSU (AP 2, F/+ 2) vs. OU (AP 5, F/+ 5). Your game of the week. The bookies have the Buckeyes by a TD. S&P+ says the game is closer to OSU -3 points. I honestly believe this is going to be an instant classic, and I wish I were going. In 1977 the #4 Buckeyes and #3 Sooners met for the first time in their storied histories. My parents, both graduates of Nebraska, attended the game. It had one of the wildest finishes in history and was labeled the Game of the Century. You all know the story. Woody vs. Barry. After erasing a 20-0 deficit with a 28 point comeback, the Buckeyes fumbled the ball with 90 seconds left in the game (no OT in ’77). The Sooners cashed in on the turnover with a TD, went for two and the tie but failed to convert. Then the unthinkable happened. OU successfully recovered the ensuing onside kick (fumbled by a player who ironically played shortstop on the OSU baseball team), put themselves in FG range, and Uve Von (effing) Schamann kicked the winning FG. I predict a back and forth game in which Coach Meyer is ultimately going to have to trust Das Boot to kick the winning FG. The Buckeyes will forever be able to put Van Schamann’s ghost to rest.
For anyone interested in seeing a complete breakdown of Vegas spread, S&P+, & F/+ projections, Bill Connelly has an awesome weekly article with a link to the mother of all spreadsheets.
Programming note: I’ll be off the grid all next week. If anyone would like to take up the torch, be my guest. I’ll return with another edition after the Army game in Week Three.
