Is having a first-round bye a disadvantage in the College Football Playoff? Based on two years of data, it doesn’t appear to be a benefit.
After all of the top four seeds lost in the quarterfinals of last year’s College Football Playoff, three of the top four seeds went down in this year’s CFP as No. 2 seed Ohio State lost to No. 10 Miami, No. 3 Georgia lost to No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 4 Texas Tech lost to No. 5 Oregon.
No. 1 seed Indiana became the first team with a first-round bye to win a game in the 12-team playoff with its decisive 38-3 win over Alabama in the Rose Bowl, though even the Hoosiers had a slow start offensively before scoring 38 points in the final three quarters.
Ohio State and Texas Tech both looked rusty as they were shut out in the first half, with the Red Raiders shut out for the entire game in their 23-0 loss to Oregon. Georgia looked like it would join Indiana in quashing the anti-bye narrative when it took a 21-12 lead over Ole Miss into halftime, but the Rebels came back to beat the Bulldogs, 39-34, in the most competitive game of the quarterfinals.
The lack of success for teams that received first-round byes continued this year despite a format change last season that no longer reserved the top four seeds for conference champions. While none of last year’s losses for top-four seeds came as massive surprises – No. 3 seed Boise State and No. 4 seed Arizona State were underdogs for their games against Penn State and Texas, No. 2 seed Georgia was without starting quarterback Carson Beck and No. 1 Oregon lost to eventual national champion Ohio State – this year’s quarterfinal results were more surprising, particularly with Ohio State and Georgia losing.
Those results could lead to an increased push for the CFP to expand to 16 teams, with all of the top eight seeds hosting first-round games on campus and no teams receiving byes.
Ohio State coach Ryan Day and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia both said after the Buckeyes’ 24-14 loss to Miami that they felt they had a good plan entering the game for keeping the team ready to play amid its 25-day layoff between the Big Ten Championship Game and the Cotton Bowl, but they acknowledged that it took them too long to get into a rhythm against the Hurricanes, who outscored Ohio State 14-0 in the first half just nine days after beating Texas A&M in their first-round game.
“We worked really hard during the last three weeks leading up to this game to come out of the gates and win the first quarter, win the first half, be ready to go. I thought we had an excellent plan on that in what we did. I think the guys bought into it. But at the end of the day, we didn't get it done, and that starts with me and goes down from there,” Day said. “So I take responsibility for not getting the guys ready. We spent an inordinate amount of time putting the plan together to get everybody ready to go play in that first half, and we didn't win the first half. So we've got to figure out why that was and learn from it moving forward.”
