Considering the lack of true national championship contenders, the Big Ten isn't quite as highly regarded as it usually is this time of the year.
Still, the seven schools selected by the tournament selection committee ties a conference record high – set in 1990 and equaled in 2009, 2011, 2013 and, now, 2015. The committee had every B1G team safely in the tournament, even with lackluster resumes from Indiana, Purdue and – to be honest – Ohio State. Unlike last year, no Big Ten squad is among the "first four" and all will avoid the awkward situation of losing in Dayton.
Wisconsin paces the pack, as they demonstrated all year. Still, I believe two other B1G teams are capable of getting past opening weekend.
This week's Big Ten power rankings are presented in the order of which schools I believe are most likely to win the national championship.
1. Wisconsin (No. 1 Seed, West Region)
First Opponent: No. 16 Coastal Carolina
Their path to a return Final Foul trip isn't particularly forgiving, but the Badgers' offensive execution is so flawless, they could even threaten Kentucky's perfect season.
Neither Oregon nor Oklahoma State will slow Wisconsin down in the round of 32. Past that, the level of competition rises significantly. If the seeding holds true, North Carolina would play them in the Sweet 16. The Heels' length could cause problems playing passing lanes, running the Badgers off the three-point line and battling Frank Kaminsky in the low post.
If they can beat North Carolina, Wisconsin could face Ohio State Arizona in the Elite Eight. The Wildcats are KenPom's No. 2 ranked team, and their ability to score in the open court would cause problems for the Badgers' transition defense. Still, the Badgers are so good at controlling pace – Kaminsky in the high or low post – and limiting turnovers that they'd limit the 'Cats' fast break opportunities. Plus, if Brandon Ashley is matched up with Kaminsky, he'd have trouble guarding him down there and Nigel Hayes becomes a significant mismatch problem against the slower-footed Kaleb Tarczewski or someone smaller.
In the Final Four, that's where Wisconsin would run into Kentucky. UK's defensive versatility would allow them to guard UW straight up and I'm not confident the Badgers could even remotely handle Karl Anthony Towns, assuming he avoids foul trouble at the defensive end.
Prediction: Final Four, losing to Kentucky.
2. Michigan State (No. 7 Seed, East Region)
First Opponent: No. 10 Georgia
Sparty is under-seeded, at No. 7 in their region and might be forced to play No. 2 Virginia in a potential round of 32 matchup.
Perhaps it's because of MSU's non-conference performance or – actually, never mind, I have no idea what the committee was on when they came up with this bracket and I will make no attempt to rationalize it. All things considered, Georgia is a fairly friendly first round opponent.
A rematch with the Cavaliers awaits them, in what would assuredly be another close game. Although their OT performance against Wisconsin wasn't particularly inspiring, I think Michigan State is capable of valuing possessions in a contest where they won't get many. Maybe I'm just uneasy about Justin Anderson fitting back into the Cavs' lineup.
Looking ahead, MSU might play Oklahoma in the round of 16. In that case, it's not a clash of styles and both teams would like to run. Give OU the advantage in that case.
Prediction: Sweet 16, losing to Oklahoma.
3. Maryland (No. 4 Seed, Midwest Region)
First Opponent: No. 13 Valparaiso
No team in the country has more experience winning close games than Maryland. To Columbus readers thinking about seeing them at Nationwide Arena: it'll be worth it, assuming you're cool with missing other games on at the same time.
I'm not going to totally discount them losing to Valpo in their opening matchup, considering the Crusaders are No. 31 in KenPom's adjusted defense rankings and the Terps can suffer prolonged scoring droughts.
They probably don't have enough offense to pull the upset, but West Virginia does. That's who the Terps would meet in the next round, and I expect a sizable Mountaineer contingent to help push them towards a win.
Prediction: Round of 32, losing to West Virginia.
4. Ohio State (No. 10, West Region)
First Opponent: No. 7 Virginia Commonwealth
Let me qualify their placement in these rankings before you get skeptical: Ohio State has no shot at beating Arizona in the round of 32. The only fun in that game would be reliving LaQuinton Ross' game-winning shot in 2013.
The opening matchup with VCU is a different story. Tempo-wise, the Rams aren't as quick as they usually are. Still, that style of game will play in Ohio State's favor. Towards the end of the season, in particular, the Buckeyes were dreadful in their half-court offensive execution. They're still struggling to find ways to get D'Angelo Russell going off ball and it's nearly impossible for him to get clean looks when he's the primary ball-handler in half-court sets – other teams are forcing the ball out of his hands.
In transition, he's much more successful creating for himself and others. VCU's size won't be a problem, so OSU can go small and try to spread the floor. By that I mean, teammates can just watch Russell attempt pull-up three-pointers while flying to the wings. There will be no Briante Weber, the Rams' best perimeter defender, to stop him from doing so.
Ohio State played three games against teams that play a similar style of intense defensive pressure. Shaka Smart, through Billy Donovan, is an ancillary member of the "Rick Pitino coaching tree." The Buckeyes lost to Pitino's Louisville squad – but played well in the second half – and beat his direct descendant, Richard Pitino and Minnesota, twice. OSU won't be overwhelmed in this matchup, assuming the Shannon Scott from the Big Ten Tournament shows up, rather than the one who played the Cardinals in December.
I asked Thad Matta if those games will help them prepare for VCU's "havoc" defense:
"We haven't come across a ton of teams that play that way. There's not a whole lot of them out there. [Against Dayton] they didn't do a ton of that. I think, with a senior guard [Scott] and D'Angelo, hopefully we're a tough team to press and trap."
Prediction: Round of 32, losing to Arizona.
5. Purdue (No. 9 seed, Midwest Region)
First Opponent: No. 8 Cincinnati
I would have the Boilermakers higher on this list, but getting out of the round of 64 is no guarantee.
Purdue – UC will be an ugly game to watch and extremely physical inside. My recommendation is to tune in for the final five minutes, as it should be close. I'll give Purdue the edge in what will be an even frontcourt matchup because of their guard play. Rapheal Davis struggled in the Big Ten Tournament but he'll frustrate the Bearcats and Jon Octeus will have some opportunities to score in transition.
The Boilers' backcourt is nowhere near good enough to slow down Kentucky. They can mitigate Kentucky's size on the interior because of A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas, but there will be no answer for UK's perimeter size.
Prediction: Round of 32, losing to Kentucky.
6. Iowa (No. 7 Seed, South Region)
First Opponent: No. 10 Davidson
Last year, around this time, the Hawkeyes imploded and still somehow made the tournament before losing to Tennessee in Dayton. Playing a weak schedule, Iowa won six in a row and lost to Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament.
I just don't think this is a particularly good matchup for Iowa. Both teams like to play up tempo, and Davidson is simply much better at executing offensively in a free-flowing game. Statistically, the Wildcats are similar to juggernauts such as Gonzaga, Iowa State and BYU.
Prediction: Round of 64, losing to Davidson.
7. Indiana (No. 10 Seed, Midwest Region)
First Opponent: No. 7 Wichita State
The Hoosiers' opening game is a microcosm of how poorly the committee seeded teams this year.
Indiana was a disaster at the end of the regular season, despite its offensive talent. IU should have backed into the tournament and played in one of the "First Four" games in Dayton, but the Hoosiers are, instead, on the 10-seed line and ranked ahead of Ohio State:
Committee had Indiana ahead of Ohio State. RT @slmandel: Here is the committee's official 1-68 list. pic.twitter.com/wvXlrOJi5a
— Troy Machir (@TroyMachir) March 15, 2015
Wichita State, meanwhile, is under-seeded and KenPom's No. 14 overall team. They were eliminated early in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament but the Shockers still have a wealth of March experience. I think all Ohio State fans remember these names: Fred Van Vleet, Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton. They're still on Wichita State's squad and could help them knock off Kansas in the next round.
Prediction: Round of 64, losing to Wichita State.
