Ohio State might be 3-0 but it kinda feels like the real season begins tomorrow as the Buckeyes head to South Bend to take on No. 9 Notre Dame in a primetime showdown.
After two uneven performances against Indiana and Youngstown State, Ryan Day's squad throttled Western Kentucky 63-10 last Saturday, giving fans a lot of confidence the Buckeyes can go on the road and swipe a W from the equally unbeaten Irish.
Storylines run rampant in this one as Ohio State's resurgent defense looks to pass a real test both through the air and on the ground. Meanwhile, first-year starting quarterback Kyle McCord hopes to show he's ready for primetime against an Irish defense ranked No. 4 in pass defense featuring a pair of sturdy cornerbacks.
For thoughts on those topics and more, I brought in some big dogs - elite deputy editor Dan Hope, Buckeye savant Ramzy Nasrallah and number-cruncher Matt Gutridge join the 11W Roundtable.
Ohio State’s pass defense faced a legit attack last weekend and largely shut it down but obviously Sam Hartman’s experience and talent pose an even bigger test. Will the Buckeyes limit big plays knowing that was such an Achilles heel last season? Any particular personnel weakness in coverage that has you concerned? Can the defensive line get pressure without a blitz? Ultimately, what kind of day will Hartman have through the air?
Dan: Ohio State’s defense has been one of the best in the country at limiting plays so far this season, so I’m reasonably confident the Buckeyes will do so for the most part against Notre Dame, though I won’t be surprised if the Fighting Irish hit a deep ball or two off of play action given that this is the first offense Ohio State is facing this season that is dangerous both passing and running the ball.
The Buckeyes don’t have any obvious holes in coverage right now, so there isn't any particular weakness I expect to be exposed, though Notre Dame is more capable of exposing them than anyone Ohio State has played so far. Ohio State's defensive line showed it could put consistent pressure on a passing attack last week, so I don't think the Buckeyes need to over-rely on the blitz, though Notre Dame’s offensive line is certainly much stouter than Western Kentucky’s. Overall, I'm expecting Sam Hartman to throw for about 225-250 yards and two touchdowns – more than anyone else has had against Ohio State this year, but nothing exorbitant.
Ramzy: Sam Hartman has been playing college football since the Grover Cleveland administration and has exactly three ranked wins to show for it, all against middling, mediocre-ass ACC programs that grifted their way into polls by beating church league teams in non-conference home games. The last and only time he participated in an ESPN College Gameday game his team lost 37-13 at home, albeit in an empty stadium. He's a serviceable quarterback in large part because he's had almost seven million snaps of experience. Imagine if he was bad at this despite starting games since 2018.
That would make him Phil Jurkovec, ironically. Phil started for Notre Dame as a freshman while Hartman started at Wake. He's now busy being bad at Pitt. Hartman is better than Jurkovec. They're both old quarterbacks who should be selling insurance at this point in their lives. This will be the first truly electric college football environment he's ever played in, and if you're thinking "winning at Doak against a Florida State team that lost three straight has to count for something" then stop and say that back to yourself slowly. He's never seen anything like what he'll see on Saturday night, and he'll be playing a home game.
Matt: Will the Buckeyes limit big plays against Notre Dame? I want to say yes, but Hartman’s decades-long experience in college football, combined with Ryan Day’s and Jim Knowles’ history against ranked opponents, will likely enable Hartman to make multiple big plays through the air.
For those who like random facts and stats, Ryan Day has faced 22 ranked opponents. In those games, quarterbacks on the other sideline have passed for 200+ yards 16 times and over 300 yards eight times.
Last year, Ohio State faced four ranked opponents with Jim Knowles in the booth. Three of the four teams had quarterbacks eclipse 250 passing yards and connect on long touchdown passes.
Georgia’s Stetson Bennett threw for 398 yards and had a back-breaking 76-yard touchdown, Penn State’s Sean Clifford went for 371 yards and had a 58-yard touchdown and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy threw for 263 and a 75-yard touchdown pass.
Based on those numbers, I will be more surprised if Hartman doesn’t throw for over 250 yards and connect on a long touchdown pass.
While Hartman has more game experience than some NFL quarterbacks, Ohio State’s Kyle McCord will be making just his fifth collegiate start against an Irish squad giving up only 126.8 passing yards per game. Will McCord prove up to the task against what is currently the nation’s No. 4 ranked pass defense? His favorite target – aka the most talented player in college football – was making just his second career start last year against Notre Dame and notched five grabs for 56 yards. Will Marvin prove to be a difference maker on Saturday? Is there a non-Marvin pass catcher you think steps up to have a big day like Emeka Egbuka did in leading the Buckeyes with 9-for-90 with a touchdown last year against the Irish?
Matt: Who has Notre Dame played? Navy, Tennessee State, NC State and Central Michigan. Not the most pass-prolific teams in the NCAA.
In the season-opener, McCord looked for Julian Fleming and Cade Stover. With that said, I’ll lean on Egbuka to have another big game against the Fighting Irish. His nine catches last year are the most receptions for any Buckeye in the seven previous games against Notre Dame.
Dan: Making Kyle McCord the outright starter before last week's game against Western Kentucky was important, as I believe that allowed him to get into a rhythm that he can build off of this week. The passing lanes won't be as open as they were a week ago, but I think McCord will prove capable of making enough plays for Ohio State to win as long as he gets some help from the defense and the running game.
Marvin Harrison Jr. was still developing into the player he is now when the season began last year, so I fully expect him to make a bigger impact against Notre Dame this season. The best team Notre Dame has faced this season was led by a tight end in receiving (N.C. State tight end Juice Vereen), so I won't be surprised if Cade Stover ends up making a notable impact as a pass-catcher in South Bend.
Ramzy: Last year's Notre Dame game is pretty useless to compare to the rematch for a number of reasons, most notably that Ohio State's offense was built around Jaxon Smith-Njigba and both he and Julian Fleming had to leave the game early, forcing every other receiver into a game of musical chairs. McCord has been getting through his progressions well, especially after the 1st quarter when he's warmed up and aligned to the rhythm of the game. The threat of Marvin over the top is ominous for every secondary in the game when Ohio State's play callers aren't committed to playing with their food. I think the underneath stuff and TreVeyon Henderson as a pre-snap option to receive passes are more than enough to keep the "nation's No.4 ranked pass defense" on their heels. Nice one, Chris. Notre Dame has played Navy, two paychecks and an NC State team averaging nearly one passing touchdown per game. The Irish secondary is well-rested.
While whether Ohio State can keep Hartman in check is a huge storyline, games are usually won or lost in the trenches where the Buckeyes could have their hands full in trying to slow down an Irish run game averaging 5.9 a pop. Leading Notre Dame’s ground assault is tailback Audric Estime who enters the contest ranked No. 2 in the country with 130.3 rushing yards per game on a nation’s 12th-best 8.3 yards per attempt. Can the defensive line disrupt the run game’s timing, make plays and keep the linebackers clean? When the dust settles, what’s a roughly-right stat line we should expect for Estime?
Ramzy: I'm now mad I just said last year's ND game was useless to compare to the rematch because last year Estime had nine carries for 21 yards against weaker defense. I think he'll be good for 17 carries and 65 yards, which is better than the 2.5 ypc the Buckeyes have allowed thus far against a slightly better bad schedule (98 vs 119). The Irish will be throwing more than they run.
Matt: How often has Ohio State faced an opposing team’s running back that enters the contest averaging over 100 yards per game and the Buckeyes shut his ass down? Too many times for me to remember and that’s saying something. The only thing that concerns me with Estime's ability to have a big game is the Hartman factor.
The majority of the time Ohio State has faced a talented running back; he was on a team that was one-dimensional on the offensive side of the ball. Think Wisconsin. If Notre Dame finds success in the air, it will open up lanes for the hard-running Estime.
This is the game I’m hoping Knowles’ defense steps up for. I want to believe the Silver Bullets are back. This is the “show me” game to prove Knowles learned from the two losses last year. If the Silver Bullets are locked and loaded, Estime will finish under 100 yards tomorrow night.
Dan: Estimé has rushed for at least 95 yards in all of Notre Dame’s first four games, so keeping him under 100 yards would be a win for the Buckeyes. That said, Ohio State has held all of its first three opponents under 100 yards. That will be harder to do if Notre Dame runs the ball 33 times like all of Ohio State's first three opponents did, but I think the Buckeyes will keep Estimé from taking over the game and be the first defense to hold him under 5.5 yards per carry since September 2022. Ohio State’s interior defensive line has been disruptive all year, and Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers have been consistent playmakers.
One could argue Ryan Day overthought his offensive game plans against Michigan the last two years and Jim Knowles was too aggressive in Ohio State’s back-to-back losses to Michigan and Georgia to end last season. Of course, Day bounced back against Georgia, deploying an assertive, fast-paced attack that led to 41 points versus the eventual national champs. What kind of offensive and defensive game plans do you expect from these two on Saturday, in a huge road test? Should lessons learned from the recent losses apply to this game? If so, how?
Dan: I think Day and Knowles both learned lessons from the losses to end last year, and I'd expect them to apply those lessons to their game plans this week. Day seems to know that he needs to be aggressive offensively in big games, and Marcus Freeman's comments about being too conservative last year should reinforce that need for Day. Knowles has spoken repeatedly about learning from the way last year ended and adjusting his scheme to allow fewer big plays this season, and it's worked so far, so I'd expect that to continue to be a point of emphasis this week.
Ramzy: If Day brings his lucid, evil game plan to South Bend while Knowles informs his defense it's perfectly okay to allow six yards on 3rd & 12 instead of treating the situation with do-or-die aggressiveness, then Notre Dame is in for a disappointing evening. I expect the Buckeyes to come out attacking and exploiting their unfair advantages to assert command and take the crowd's temperature down early. Defensively, I think they're ready for the opposite of last year's rock fight, especially after facing Western Kentucky last weekend. Day's worst enemy is Day. The good news is Marcus Freeman isn't in his head.
Matt: In the previous 12 games against ranked opponents played outside of Columbus, Day has been open to putting the ball in the air. In this scenario, the Buckeyes are averaging 24 completions on 36 attempts for 331 yards.
Will a quarterback with fewer starts than digits on his throwing hand make Day a little gun-shy? Maybe, but that’s not how Day has attacked ranked opponents in road games. However, Day will also take what the defense is giving him.
In the 2020 conference title game against Northwestern, Ohio State finished with only 114 passing yards. Why? Because the Wildcats let Trey Sermon rush for an Ohio State single-game record 331 rushing yards. How will Freeman’s defense scheme for tomorrow’s game? Even with Day’s track record of having a stellar passing attack, I’ll expect the Fighting Irish defense to try and take away the run and make McCord beat them through the air.
The coaches are getting paid millions of dollars to learn from their mistakes. This guy, who is making 2,600 times less than Ryan Day’s and 633 times less than Jim Knowles’ annual salary, has no business telling them what they should have learned.
After a strong showing last weekend Ohio State is a 3.5-point favorite heading into South Bend. Do the Buckeyes cover? Give us your final score and MVP.
Matt: My crystal ball has been extremely murky this year, but here goes: Ohio State 35, Notre Dame 20. Tommy Eichenberg gets the MVP for helping the Silver Bullets limit Estime and the Fighting Irish’s run game.
Dan: I wouldn't confidently bet on the Buckeyes to cover since I believe this will be a one-score game that's decided in the fourth quarter, but I'm predicting a 31-24 win for Ohio State. The best players are expected to step up in the biggest games, so I expect Marvin Harrison Jr. to lead the way for the Buckeyes with 100+ receiving yards and a couple of touchdown catches.
Ramzy: Ohio State 42, Notre Dame 24. Confident Kyle McCord goes for over 300 yards again, distributing the ball to eight different receivers as the Buckeyes play to their strength to win the surest way.
