Bovada Drops Ohio State from 10-1 to 18-1 to Win National Championship

By 11W Staff on August 19, 2014 at 10:32a
41 Comments

That didn't take long.

Within hours of news emerging that Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller had re-injured his throwing shoulder, sportsbooks dropped Ohio State's odds to win both the Big Ten and national championship.

If the awkward throw injures the shoulder of Heisman Trophy candidate Braxton Miller, then Ohio State’s odds to win the college football national championship would plunge from 10-1 to 18-1.

[...]

Another sportsbook quickly adjusted their lines, moving the Buckeyes to 20-1. Online sportsbook 5Dimes also dropped their odds to win the Big Ten behind both Wisconsin and Michigan State at 3-1.

Miller's Heisman Trophy odds also dipped to 13-1, well behind Jameis Winston at Florida State and Marus Mariota at Oregon.

The Buckeyes open against Navy and that line has been taken off the board at some shops and the line had dipped at 5Dimes to -16.5 for OSU from an open of -19.5. Watch for Ohio State odds to change pending his medical updates today.

While Ohio State without Braxton Miller is still a very good football team, Urban Meyer will probably need his senior quarterback to make a run at a title.

41 Comments

Comments

dubjayfootball90's picture

Well, I put 50 on tOSU back in April... Still holding out hope!!!

You can feed a bobcat all the chili it wants. That don't mean it's going to crap out diamonds.

+4 HS
Baroclinicity's picture

I guess the smart money buys in now, right?

When you're holding a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

+10 HS
741's picture

The smart money waits until we struggle against Navy with the backup QB and the odds rise to 35-1.

+1 HS
blocko330's picture

Hey at least the AP already came out -- we'd probably be #15+ if this had happened a week or two ago.

“Things may come to those who wait, but only the things left by those who hustle.”

- TruthTeller

+1 HS
Buckeyeneer's picture

I said the same thing below. Sorry I didn't see your comment before hand. +1

"Because the rules won't let you go for three." - Woody Hayes

THE Ohio State University

Baroclinicity's picture

I'd rather be 15 right now.  Take some pressure off of us.

When you're holding a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

sivaDavis's picture

That's fine. Just means I'll be winning more money when they win the Natty.

"I've had smarter people around me all my life, but I haven't run into one yet that can outwork me. And if they can't outwork you, then smarts aren't going to do them much good." - Woody Hayes

+2 HS
Hovenaut's picture

Scratching my head at 5Dimes...behind Wisconsin to win the B1G?

#notseeingit

I am not very smart, but I recognize that I am not very smart.

+4 HS
Sleepy's picture

Just look at the B1G West, and you'll definitely see it.

avail31678's picture

This.  They couldn't have an easier path to Indy.

+1 HS
Hovenaut's picture

I'm liking Iowa myself - they host the Badgers on Nov 22nd, I think that will determine who goes.

I am not very smart, but I recognize that I am not very smart.

+2 HS
avail31678's picture

...I think that will determine who goes whether Kirk wins his 14th B1G Coach of the Year award.

Fixed that.

Seriously, though, you're right - Iowa has an easy path also.  I just see Iowa slipping up somewhere else being more likely

+2 HS
brandonbauer87's picture

Sounds like the time to buy. $50 for a $900 payout sounds like a deal. 

OrangeDot3083's picture

One man does not make the team, he is unquestionably important to the team but not all encompassing.  I still have faith that the Big Ten and National Championship are within reach…

And yes I would at least drop $50 on those odds.

apack614's picture

Whatever

"If we worked half as hard as our band, we'd be champions." - Woody Hayes

+3 HS
buckeyecountry's picture

Let's show them Ohio's here and win as many games as we can and I think we will be undefeated heading into Happy Valley.

jamesrbrown322's picture

I'd love to know what OSU's odds were in 2002...

Never count out a team with this much talent.

"Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts." - Winston Churchill

+2 HS
Fowle13's picture

Those odds don't mean shit it's reality that makes all the difference. Prayers your way Braxton and let's do work Jon Thomas 

Bloombergl's picture

May they be doubters.  Let's go bucks.  What were the odds when we won the championship with a freshman RB, smart and serviceable QB and a stellar D?  Very long.

BucksfanXC's picture

Do they know something we don't? I don't think we've heard the final word on Braxton yet.

“Any time you give a man something he doesn't earn, you cheapen him. Our kids earn what they get, and that includes respect.”  - Woody

Zimmy07's picture

I really hope JT lights up Navy for 8 TD's.  Miller is awesome, but he's just one man.  OSU is still very dangerous.

GordonGee4Ever's picture

I wonder what Barrett's Heisman odds are....I bet $100 can buy me pizza for life

All roads lead back to Columbus

+2 HS
Shangheyed's picture

A Red Shirt Frosh did it at FSU just last year....

Buckeyeneer's picture

I know this sucks, but am I the only one who thought, "Good thing the AP top 25 already came out."

"Because the rules won't let you go for three." - Woody Hayes

THE Ohio State University

Myc24's picture

Gambling, hooray! 

"Because I couldn't go for three!"  - Wayne Woodrow Hayes

hit_the_couch's picture

It would be great if tOSU got back to the smash mouth D we're used to seeing, especially back in the early '00s when offensive production wasn't great.

And then I told her...i'm no weatherman, but tonight's forecast is calling for several inches!

ZeroDimension's picture

If you subscribe to the easy path to the title, I like Wisconsin.  They wont be as 'beaten' up as say an OSU/MSU/Michigan or makes it to the title game.    No disrespect to Nebraska or Iowa, but lets face it, even a down Michigan team is a pick'em versus those two teams.

I think OSU without Braxton Miller is now on the same level as the best teams in the BIG, not below but at the same level.  Now if, Braxton can not play at all(which is my assumption above), other teams might breath a sigh of relief now, but if someone like JT Barret starts improving and the O-line starts gelling, and a running back other than Rod Smith emerges... You have a new 'Oh CRAP' moment.. because you have 3 more years of that same unit running at you... And I literaly mean running at you.

The thing Braxton brings that I don't thing people appreciate enough is the 'Oh Crap' moment every defender has when they see him start to run.  With Pryor, I always knew you would get a highlight 20-40 yard run.  With Braxton, he legit can take it to the house at any moment(this is hyperbole, but its almost like a combo of Denard and Pryor).  No other player in college football strikes that level of fear into a team.   He is ridiculously understated.  If his passing was better he would be impossible to defend.

Rooting for Braxton.  I was just telling my buddy, how many times at Ohio State(or any other school) do you see a legit superstar who has stayed out of the media limelight as much as Braxton has.  I don't know him personally, so maybe he is a jerk behind the scenes, but his public persona seems to be 'perfect', if there is such a thing.   I kept telling some of my game watch buddies, I know Braxton has some issues in the passing game, but once he is gone, I have a feeling that is when people will really appreciate who is was.

With all that said, I would hate to run a 70% Braxton out onto the field, not really fair to him.  I was never a huge storm klein fan, but we never really saw a healthy storm klein play, he deserved more credit for filling in that gap than I ever gave him.   I just would not want to see something like with Braxton.

I am hoping my over reaction to the energy, means Braxton is fine, and we will just be developing some good reps for JT for next year at the beginning of the season.

I really hope this does not become like my Keith Byars injury( Ill never forget the day, someone came into my ECON class, and told us the news).  Awful day, awful day.  ... meta tarsal ... fifth... uhhh...

One Shoe

ThermalShock's picture

I still believe that we can make a solid run towards the NCG.  If memory serves me correct, didn't an unknown redshirt freshman win the Heisman and lead his team to a National Championship last year?  I have solid faith in the coaching staff and the multitude of weapons we have.  We'll be just fine.

Buckeye Chuck's picture

Winston wasn't unknown; he had been a major, major recruit, and sat in 2012 behind the first QB taken in the 2013 draft.

I'm OK with folks showing optimism because that's what being a fan is all about. But my own expectations, should Miller not be able to play this season, are fairly low.

The most "loud mouth, disrespect" poster on 11W.

jkrk's picture

Winston wasn't unknown; he had been dodged a major, major recruit rape scandal, and sat in 2012 ran through Publix behind the first QB crab legs taken in the 2013 draft by a Heisman trophy winner.

Fixed.

ThermalShock's picture

Thanks for the correction!  Should have said an untested redshirt freshman, not unknown.  

osu78's picture

The thing to remember is a sports book is not trying to predict the odds but set a line that balances bets on both sides. The line represents what bettors think are the odds and moves based on betting patterns. The house makes money on the betting and doesn't care who wins or loses since they are not taking a side on the bet.  If they are skewed to one side of the book then they will get to many bets on one side and thus put their own cash at risk; they adjust the line to bring the betting back into balance.

The Championship is a future bet.  You can imagine the pool of money as all what was bet on all the teams with odds. The house wants to balance the total betting so no matter who wins they still get their cut and payout from all the cash collected. So the odds move to keep that balance.

10 - 1 without Miller no doubt made a lot of people want to bet some other team would win and the book makers would like to add money back into the OSU pool  by offering a larger payout if they win.

smartfootballrankings's picture

Lots of people say this, but it doesn't make it true.  You are confusing a Sports Book with a Betting Exchange.  They are two different entities.  While it's true that some sports books due try to limit exposure by attempting to get nearly equal action, their goal is mostly to maximize profits.  This means having sucker bets out there that the public will eat up and they are happy to cover the other side.

Your method of moving the line does not help once the bets came in.  This just gives the opportunity to attempt to middle, with the book on the hook for cases where they pay out to someone guaranteed.  Sports books will know their lines are not always perfect, and if there is too much money coming in on one side, they'll move the line because the sharp money typically will hit first and indicate where the sports book erred.  The sharps can profit on smaller bets, but the big money comes in later when the lines are closer to true or still even skewed against the public.

The other part you are missing is there is no other side in futures bets like this.  You cannot bet "Ohio State will not win the title" directly.  You can only bet on every single other team, in some amounts, including a Field Bet.  So there is no other side to move the line in this case.  Not that you were even correct in spread bets or money line bets where you can take either side.

osu78's picture

we may be talking about different types of sports books. I was referring to one like they run in Vegas, where in my admittedly limited experience talking with people in that industry, they want to balance their bets so they are covered no matter who wins. They make their money off the top so it's a volume business. The opening line isn't necessarily what they think the score differential or the right line should be but what they think will generate even bets on both sides. If their book gets out of balance they need to move lines to balance it. The might not balance every line but in aggregate they come out even.

Some books may take a position but that's not a smart way to make money in the long run if you can essential eliminate the risk of paying out with your own money and just taking a cut off the top.

As for future bets there is, as you point out, another side, namely all the rest of the teams. As long as the aggregate dollars lost equal the payout less your cut you have  a balanced book.

In short, do you really mean to say a Las Vegas casino puts at risk any significant amount of its own money on a betting line because they think it is a sure thing? 

brbrbuckeye's picture

Lol....these guys are really not understanding how Urban works. Plus Barrett has had a year to learn the playbook.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmVKQlTbwlc

GO BUCKS!!! URBAN RENEWAL!

-1 HS
dwcbuckeye's picture

Never heard of Bovada and could care a less what they think.

If Brax cannot play this year I fully expect JT to be better than Connor Cook.  Time will tell, let's let it play out, but I am cautiously optimistic.

+1 HS
smartfootballrankings's picture

Yeah, only one of the largest books in the world, I'm sure the millions of dollars they put on the line is completely meaningless, LOL HERP DERP.

Buckeye Chuck's picture

One thought that's occurred to me over the years is that the Buckeyes have had pretty good luck with avoiding injuries to quarterbacks, perhaps even unusually good luck. In all my time following the team, I don't think we've ever had a year where the presumed preseason starting quarterback had an injury that knocked him out for all or even most of a season.

That streak was bound to end sooner or later. Of course, until I'm told otherwise I'm going to hold out hope Miller will be able to return this season.

The most "loud mouth, disrespect" poster on 11W.

BuckeyeRef's picture

If you don't gamble on college football games, it doesn't really matter what the sportsbooks think...

OSU still needs to go out and play 12 games and then we'll see where things end up....no funerals!

Go Bucks!!!!

nickel beer's picture

Terrible news, and terrible news for Miller.  Really feel very disappointed for him.  But, this is Ohio State.  We play to rock the house everytime.  2012 happened, and it will again when there's heart. 

Well, I stand up next to a mountain ... and I chop it down with the edge of my hand.