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How Will Ohio State Get to 20+ Scholarships in '17?

+5 HS
buckeye phi's picture
July 6, 2016 at 10:03am
96 Comments

Stumbled upon this over at 247sports.com.  Steve Helwagon took a question on the subject - but the brief discussion really only brought up more questions than answers. 

A search (of the admittedly quick variety) did not reveal a recent in depth analysis.  So, what better place to kick the topic around than right here? 

The NCAA does not allow it's FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision) teams to have more than 85 scholarshp players on their rosters once the season begins.  How will the Buckeyes take more than twenty recruits in this cycle and be under the scholarship limit by the deadline in 2017? 

Ohio State will lose only six seniors from it's present roster next year.  And at last count, the Buckeyes were only one scholarship shy of the limit heading in to the 2016 season.  Yet the commonly held expectation is that the 2017 class will be (slightly) more than twenty players strong.  That seems like a pretty big gap - at least, on the surface. 

So, the beginning number on the way to 21-plus - is only seven.

The first thing that pops in to the minds of most college football junkies when this sort of topic comes up is early departures to the NFL.  Since fall camp hasn't even started yet - and so much is unknown - perhaps it would be best to divide this group up a bit. 

Naturally, the first category in this group should be made up of juniors and rs sophomores who are returning starters and therefore, somewhat more likely to enter next spring's draft than other players. 

But on a team that's returning so few starters, only a handful of players fit that description -  Raekwon McMillan, Tyquan Lewis, Gareon Conley and JT Barrett.  Even some of these players will need to have big seasons in order to merit an early departure. 

The "magic number" is now up from seven to eleven - maybe.

By the way, it has been suggested Billy Price will follow Pat Elflein's lead and play center in his final year of eligibility (in '17).  That would almost certainly enhance his value at the next level - but if it looks like he could be an early-round pick in '17 without making the move, nobody could blame him for leaving.  He will have been in the program four years by then.  It's something to consider. 

The next category is players who could reasonably be thought of as early entrants to the NFL - assuming they play as well as expected in their relatively new roles as starters. 

Leading this category is Curtis Samuel.  It would be shocking to many followers of the program if he does not have the kind of season that could earn him early-round draft status. 

The Buckeyes' last two starting tight ends were drafted in consecutive years.  But both Jeff Heuerman (in '15) and Nick Vannett (in '16) waited until after their senior seasons to enter the draft.  It'll be interesting to see what happens at the end of this season with junior, Marcus Baugh. 

It seems everyone who is close to the situation believes Sam Hubbard is primed for a huge year at defensive end.  He's a rs sophomore - so it's not inconceivable he could answer if the NFL calls.  

As improbable as it may seem right now, let's say two of the three in that category leave early.  Even then, the magic number is now no higher than thirteen

The last category under the general heading of potential early departures is pretty much every other projected starter who will be draft eligible in '17. 

While it certainly seems unlikely at this point that either would be candidates to leave early, both projected starters at outside linebacker (Dante Booker and Chris Worley) will be eligible for next year's draft.  If either of them just completely "blows up" this season (which is certainly possible) an early departure can not be completely ruled out. 

The same could be said of the projected starter at field corner, rs sophomore, Marshon Lattimore.  Malik Hooker, a likely starter at safety, is also a rs sophomore, for that matter.  

The other (more-or-less) projected starter at safety, Damon Webb is a rs junior - as are both likely starters at defensive tackle, Michael Hill and Tracy Sprinkle.  Another rs junior, Jamarco Jones, only recently won the starting job at left tackle (during spring practice).  Incidentally, wide receiver, Noah Brown, will be draft eligible in '17, too.

If one or two players emerge from that category and head off to the NFL in '17 (which may really be stretching it) - realistically, the magic number has still only risen to fourteen or possibly fifteen. 

A side note here:  Of course, there are a number of other players on the roster who will be draft-eligible in '17 - but for the purposes of this discussion, only players who are currently 100% healthy and projected to start were included. 

There are only a couple of other ways additional scholarships could become available.  Historically, the program has lost a player or two to medical hardship over the course of a given year.  Considering the violent nature of the sport - while that is a regrettable consequence - it is something that should be taken in to account, regardless. 

The magic number is now probably no higher than fifteen or sixteen - seventeen, tops. 

The only remaing way to add to the total is transfers (or the extremely rare instance of a kid who simply quits).  Even the most grizzled old followers of the program may be hard-pressed to remember when there were more than a few in a single year. 

Unless this is an unprecedented year in that regard, the magic number would now have to be floating somewhere between seventeen and twenty - and that estimate is almost certainly on the high side. 

Remember, those numbers are assuming several players who did not start last year will be declaring for the NFL draft at the end of this season.  Not a terribly realistic scenario.  None of the Buckeyes who entered the draft early this year did so without having been a starter for two seasons - or, at least the better part of two seasons. 

Also, this estimate does not take in to account players who could get hurt this season - forcing them to delay their entry in to the draft for another year - and using up their final year of eligibility (as well as another year on scholarship) in the process.

So, while the eventual total would seem unlikely to get very much higher than what's being projected here - it could easily end up being much lower.  Based on these considerations, it's hard to imagine there will be more than twenty scholarships available in 2017.  In fact, it appears twenty may actually be pushing it quite a bit. 

Yet, one consistently hears higher numbers tossed around.  A class of as many as twenty-three players has been discussed.  While that may sound outrageous under the circumstances, an estimate under twenty-one is rarely seen.  No matter what - there seems to be at least a bit of a discrepancy - 

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