Fair warning, rather long post, but I spent a lot of research on this so I hope you read it!
As it currently stands, Kyle is 39th in NCAA completion percentage at 64.1%. For comparison, under the Day era: C.J. was 4th in 2021 at 71.9% (uh, wow) and 22nd in 2022 at 66.3%; Fields was 4th in 2020 at 70.2% and 12th in 2019 at 67.2%; Haskins was 4th in 2018 at 70%; and J.T. was 22nd in 2017 at 64.7%. At first glance, it may seem like there is a dip in the passing game compared to years past, but when I took a closer look at individual receiving targets and completions, I noticed there is one outlier: Marvin Harrison Jr.
Looking at the 2-5 receiving options on this team, the efficiency from Kyle and the receivers is pretty great. Cade has 23 catches on 30 targets (76.7%), Emeka has 22 catches on 32 targets (69% - nice), Julian has 16 catches on 25 targets (64%), and Carnell has 8 catches on 12 targets (66.7%). However, Marv currently has 31 catches on 59 targets (52.5%). Yes, he's had four or five drops this season - which is not unique to even the best college receivers - but that is still an incredibly low number for what seems to be the consensus best receiver in the nation.
For reference, Marv averages 10 targets a game while the top 10 NCAA total target leaders cumulatively average 10.2 targets a game. However, those 10 target leaders average a 72% completion percentage per target, a whole 20%(!!) higher than Marv. In 2022, the completion percentage per Marv target was 65%. If that number was roughly the same this season, McCord's completion percentage suddenly looks pretty great at 69% (really nice!).
So, what is causing this low number between Kyle and Marvin? They grew up together, played high school ball together, and have been teammates at Ohio State for three years: the chemistry should be off the charts, right? I don't think it is that simple.
First, Marvin's yards per catch metric is up a whole three yards a game from 16 to 19 YPC. They are taking more deep shots this season, a lot of back shoulder "F it, Marv down there somewhere" attempts. Even still, Marv is averaging .4 less yards per target than 2022 (I don't have air yard numbers on his 28 targets that resulted in incompletions) so those deep shots aren't the entire answer.
In my opinion, I have been unimpressed with how Marv has been utilized in the red zone this season. I would venture to guess most fans are unimpressed with the red zone offense, in general, aside from Purdue. He had a nice TD against Maryland's zone coverage from about the 15 yard line, but I think their utilization of him inside 5 yards is questionable. From 2019-2021, Day used the comeback/out route with Olave to perfection because that fit Olave's skill set best. They have tried simplifying the route into a similar concept - a speed out - with Marvin and it frankly has hardly had any success this season or last, with only one touchdown resulting from it in 2022 against Iowa. I would like to see the middle of the end zone utilized with Marv more, or at the least some jump balls in the corner (the back shoulders do not work either, and Marv has pointed up to Kyle multiple times in those instances). Even if the red zone issues get cleaned up, it still does not account for the struggles between the two in between the 20's.
I don't have the tape of every single Marv target compiled into a video, so it is hard to draw any real conclusions about why the two aren't connecting, I can only go off memory and some highlights. As an aside, I have not been entirely impressed with how Marv has tried to fight for the ball this season compared to guys like Odunze, Polk, Nabers, and Burden, but he also has played with a badly sprained ankle the past 2 1/2 games so it is hard to fault him too much.
TL;DR, Marv has an extremely low completion percentage when targeted. What are your thoughts as to why the completion percentage is so low when targeting Marv? Is it a timing issue between McCord and Marv? Is it play calling? Are the coaches optimizing the way Marvin is utilized? Are the coaches and Kyle force-feeding Marvin?
