Ohio State Football Forum

Ohio State Football Forum

Ohio State football fan talk.

Alabama Pass Defense: A Look at the Numbers

0 HS
Ahh Saturday's picture
December 18, 2014 at 2:49pm
16 Comments

Much is being made in the build up to the Sugar Bowl about the need for the Buckeyes to contain Amari Cooper and what is supposed to be a newly potent Crimson Tide passing attack under Lane Kiffin. While keeping up with Cooper will indeed be a challenging task for the Buckeye secondary, it is interesting how little is being said about the challenge facing what is frankly a mediocre Bama secondary. If my choice of adjectives seems a bit harsh to apply to a team overflowing with four and five star recruits, the numbers are on my side.

First, and likely related to their overall struggle, is the fact that Alabama is not very good at getting to the quarterback. They are 57th in total sacks averaging just 2.2/game, and if you think that's a result of teams not throwing or limited offensive possessions, their rank actually drops to 69th in sack percentage, getting sacks on just 5.86% of opponent drop backs. By comparison OSU has faced 8 teams better at getting after the QB this season. And where do the Buckeyes rank on theses lists? 12th and 11th respectively. Since a comfortable quarterback throws less interceptions it is not that surprising to see that Alabama ranks only 79th in the country in interceptions, averaging .9 per game. Where are the Buckeyes on that list? Number six picking tha ball off 1.6 times per game.

An area of pass defense where Alabama and OSU appear to be closer --in fact Alabama has a close edge in this category-- is opponent completion percentage where Bama comes in ranked 20th with the Buckeyes behind at 26th, 54.07% compared to 54.63. Pretty close, I'd say. However, if we look at what happens once those completions are made, a gap opens up, and it is not one in Alabama's favor. In yards/completion the Buckeyes rank 10th allowing 10.6 yards a catch whereas Alabama drops to 56th at 11.9 yards a catch. While that still might not seem like much, when extrapolated over an entire game we can see what it means: the Buckeyes give up only 184.0 yards per game while Bama gives up 223.9, nearly a full 40 more yards a game, making the teams 11th and 57th respectively in that category.

Of course we all know that there are lies, damn lies, and statistics, and numbers can be bent to bolster most arguments. A little digging has shown that Bama has faced more offenses that rank in the top 30 in passer rating than the Buckeyes, 4-2, and maybe their competition has been a bit stronger, but what that digging has also uncovered is that their pass defense might actually be getting worse at the end of the season, having surrendered an average of 316.3 ypg in their last three games and 6 touchdowns compared to just one interception, and that is a stretch that includes the 58th and 90th ranked passing offenses in FBS as well as FCS Western Carolina.

What does it all mean? Well, for one thing it means that I like the Buckeyes' chances at moving the ball a lot more than the paid punditry does. But in the big picture it shows me a vulnerability that the Buckeyes can attack. Cardale Jones might not be the most experienced QB, but in his one game he has already faced a team statistically superior to Alabama in almost every one of the categories I've covered.

 

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

View 16 Comments