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Breaking down the hype machine. Over/Under game.

HotSauceCommittee's picture
July 30, 2014 at 1:55pm
8 Comments

A few weeks ago I created a forum topic about the 10 things I want to see from our Buckeyes this season. Today I thought it would be fun to address the team and the preseason hype surround OSU.

1. We all remember the hype surrounding OSU's John Simon-led 2012 defensive line. While they played well, if not great at times, we can all admit they did not completely live up to the hype. Still breaks my heart to see Simon hobbling out of the tunnel unable to play against TSUN, but I digress. Will the Bosa-Spence-Washington-Bennett line live up to the national and local hype of being the best DL in college football?

My response: Under. No, they will not. They will play great and be a top 10 line, but challenges in the secondary will downplay their production.

2. Will Braxton become the ball distributor he wants to be (claims he wants to be)? How many wide outs/H-backs/TEs finish with impact seasons on offense because of this? Over / Under 5? (Impact can be defined as solid number catches, yards, TDs or big play ability)

My response: Over. Wilson, Heuerman, Devon Smith, Samual, Corey Smith and lesser known playmaker will step up.

3. Urban has stated on numerous occasions that freshman will play and make an impact this season. How many true freshman will make a palpable impact this season? Over/ Under 3?

My response: Under. I believe we have the talent and on a lesser Big 10 team these kids may get the playing time, but I am not sure who gets beat out for that to happen. Contributions yes, palpable impacts no.

4. I think my main man Zeke Elliot is going to have a terrific first season as lead tailback. That being said, I do not think he will carry the rock as much as Carlos did last season. Over / Under 3. How many OSU rushers finish with 250 plus yards this season?

My response: Over. I am going to say Zeke leads the charge, but Dunn, Samual and Wilson all finish with above 250.

5. A question I am most intrigued by - With improvements expected at both LB and in the Secondary, will OSU's defense be able to shut the door on opposing offenses? How many times during the past two seasons would the offense put up 40, the game seemed like a blowout, but the score would reflect 40-27 or 38-24.This should lead to greater margins of victory and an improved national perception. Over / Under on six 30 point victories this season?

My response: Under. With Indiana, Minnesota and a few other typical lesser Big 10 teams putting together competant offenses I see this number in the ballpark of 3 - Kent State, Rutgers (welcome to the Big kid) and Illinois. I would love to see Penn State be a repeater on this list.

mh277907's picture

The thing that worries me about number 1 is that I believe all of those guys have missed time due to injury (Bosa was banged up, not sure if he missed time)? With Spence missing a few games due to suspension and with the loss of Jamal Marcus, I am a little worried about depth. I think we will see some young guys getting a lot of game reps. With that said, I still think that that those 4 guys together are better than any 4 guys any team in the country could put together.

In regards to #3, I would have to say push. I think that Samuel will have a huge impact on offense, Raekwon will have a better freshman campaign than Shazier (which is saying a lot) and another freshman will break out at WR (possibly Dixon), OL (possibly Meechy) or DB (Webb, Lattimore or Smith).

buckeyebobcat

Run_Fido_Run's picture

Good list but your first over/under doesn't really fit the concept because there is no way of going over "best DL in the country." The Buckeyes DL could "tie" that level of hype at best. A more typical might be something like: over/under the 5th best DL in the country (which is obviously subjective, but closer to the "form" that these types of bets make.

PittBuckeye's picture

Over could be the best defensive line in a decade. It's a reach, but at least it's something.

+1 HS
KansasBuckeye's picture

In regard to number 4 on your list, are you actually assuming there will be five rushers over 250 yards?  Or do you not think Braxton will go over this mark?

Personally I think there will be four.  Braxton, EZE, Wilson, and Samuel.  I don't think Dunn quite hits that mark.  And then there's Rod Smith..  I'd love to see all six top 250. 

+1 HS
HotSauceCommittee's picture

I was thinking out of the backfield, not counting QB position. Thinking Zeke finishes 750 plus, and the others around the 250. I considered Rod, but unless an injury happens he seems behind Dunn.

BroJim's picture

Great forum topic, good contribution.

I think you're underestimating the defense as a whole and overestimating the offensive side.

The WR have to get open and Miller has to get them the ball. I'm not too confident in Miller's offseason progression. With Miller running less, a new Oline, and no Carlos I don't think the offense will be as good as last year. I hope I am wrong.

The defense will be great; I love the opener against Navy, I think it will set the tone for the defense just to run around and make plays. There are a TON of athletes on D, it's going to be exciting to just seem them play.  

I season my simple food with hunger

luckynutz's picture

Heres the problem with the logic surrounding number 1...the hype surrounding that 2012 line was contingent upon the return of a fully healthy Nathan Williams. He came back...but was never really 100 percent nor the impact player he was pre-microfracture. So that hype train nevet really left the station. Not to mention Simon was beat up and Hankins, for as much of a transformation he made, wasnt in the kind of shape necessary to play the amount of snaps he had to play. Because the depth simply wasnt there.

That being said, thats the biggest difference here. The depth. Yes, being down spence a couple games isnt ideal. Neither was losing Marcus and Sprinkle. But guys like Lewis, Frazier, Munger and Hill all had a solid spring. And the conditioning level shouldnt factor in here either. 2012 was Micks first year with the team. Hes now had most of these guys for 2-3 offseasons. Which means hes got them fine tuned for 4-6 seconds of relentless effort every play. And with the rotation, it can only help preserve legs for crunch time.

Also...you have to factor in the difference in defensive philosophies. Simons line never got a chance to really pin back the ears and go with the DBs playing with a head start. Teams could simply dink and dunk and neutralize the front 4. Plus...with no LB depth, there wasnt a whole lot of blitzing. This year, they are working with a different philosophy. Press coverage, getting physical with receivers amd rerouting them. Having that extra aplit second should give the line time to get all up in QBs personal space. And also will allow for more blitzing, stunts and different angles of pressure.

Overall...I see this line being one of, if not the top, units in CFB. Even without Spence early...guys will be getting valuable game reps which will only bolster confidence and acclimate them to bigger roles. A change in overall philosophy will allow this unit the opportunity to showcase their strengths.

+1 HS
DEF D's picture

Don't sleep on Rod Smith. He's a dog. I know he got in some academic trouble earlier but dude can run hard. Zeke and Rod will share carries