Beyond the Hashes: Clemson

By Chad Peltier on January 5, 2014 at 8:30a
7 Comments
The Urban Meyer Era has just begun. Hold your heads high, my friends.

Though favored in Vegas by three points and with the endorsement of most advanced metrics, Clemson's Sammy Watkins and a slew of Buckeye turnovers would ultimately be too much to overcome. 

On the one hand, the statistical advantage was real. The F/+ index, possession efficiency metrics, and explosiveness ratings all pointed towards Meyer picking up another BCS victory. 

However, the Buckeyes' statistical advantage was slim enough that they needed to play relatively mistake-free football to win. Ultimately, the Buckeyes had a chance to win it up until the final 1:18, when Clemson intercepted Braxton for the last time. Turnovers, and the points off of turnovers, would make the difference when such a high percentage of the game's drives (on both sides) would end in scores. 

It may not be fun to subject ourselves to the numbers to Meyer's first bowl loss at Ohio State, but there's also plenty of stellar performances for the team to build on for next season. 

 

  Pts/Play Yards/Pts Yards/Play Pts/Poss Ex. Play Turnovers
Ohio State Offense .486 12.2 5.93 2.69 6 4
Ohio State Defense .526 14.4 7.58 2.67 8 2

The efficiency metrics tell an interesting story of the game in my opinion. Clemson was far more efficient on a yards per play basis and a points per play basis, while the Buckeyes were more efficient according to yards per point and points per possession. 

Effectively, you could count on Clemson to pick up more yards per snap of the ball (with high play-level numbers), but not always translate each drive into points. With fifteen total drives to the Buckeyes' thirteen due to turnovers, Clemson had more opportunities to score. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, were slightly more likely to get points from each possession even if the average play went for fewer yards than a Clemson Sammy Watkins screen. 

Further, the Buckeyes had roughly 150 fewer total yards than Clemson, yet scored only five points less. 

Let's move on to some more details: 

At least Joey B and Jamal Marcus will be back next seasonJoey Bosa and Jamal Marcus did their part to win. 
  • While the efficiency metrics help to flesh out the game story, the outcome can be explained purely by a single number: -2. That would be Ohio State's turnover margin in this game. Clemson had two more possessions to work with and averaged 2.67 points per possession, then won by five points.
  • Clemson also had only a narrow edge in explosive plays, but 11% of its total plays were big gainers. That compares to 8% for the Buckeyes. 
  • Clemson's first down drive rate (the percentage of drives that had at least one first down or a touchdown) was 86%. However, those two drives that failed to gain a first down were because of turnovers (safety and an interception), not because the Buckeye defense forced a three and out. That is the first time all season the Buckeyes failed to force a three and out in the game. 
  • In contrast, the Buckeyes' first down rate was just 62%. There's an interesting disparity between the possession and points efficiency metrics above (where the Buckeyes did extremely well) and the first down rates here. It just so happened that either the Buckeyes went three and out, turned the ball over without getting a first down, or scored a touchdown on all but three drives (that is, 3/4 turnovers came on drives that failed to pick up a first down). Clemson, on the other hand, was almost assured a first down apart from two turnovers because they were able to "hand off" the ball to Sammy Watkins for 12 yard screens on first down. 
  • Speaking of which, ESPN's Stats and Information had some interesting numbers this week: "Tajh Boyd's average pass traveled 2.9 yards downfield against Ohio State, 4.7 yards shorter than his average pass distance this season and his shortest throw distance average in any game during the last three seasons." Holy screen game, Batman. In fact, 93% of Boyd's passing yards were due to yards after catch!  
  • In contrast, of course, were the Buckeye receivers. Apart from Philly Brown, the Ohio State receivers combined for two catches for five yards. And both catches belonged to Devin Smith. That says two things: First, the receivers simply weren't able to get the separation necessary to be effective targets against Clemson. That should change for next season. Second, it is ridiculous to think Philly did more harm than good. His punt return fumble was costly, but he was almost literally the only wide receiver option for Braxton (or that Braxton chose to throw to, I suppose). 
  • Some more sad stats courtesy of ESPN? "Tajh Boyd ran for a career-high 127 yards against Ohio State, highlighted by a 48-yard touchdown run in the first quarter. He gained 116 yards on designed runs, 43 more such yards on such plays than any other game in his career. It was only the second 100-yard rusher Ohio State has allowed this season (Jeremy Langford, 128 yards)." If you would have told me that Boyd would finish with more rushing yards than Hyde and averaging 1.9 more yards per carry, then there's no way I would have believed we would come close to winning. 
  • Part of the reason for the low rushing yardage was actually the line's relatively poor night. Inside zone simply wasn't there at all, and the line yards success rate (or the percentage of runs for more than five yards) was only 38%. 
  • Finally, pressure and aggressiveness wasn't the answer for the defense, as ESPN S&I notes that, "Against the blitz, [Boyd] had 14.6 yards per attempt compared with 8.0 against standard pressure."
7 Comments

Comments

bucknut3011's picture

True on, Philly.  The muff is the defining moment of the game, but I was in amazement on his contribution the rest of the game.  He had separation and the winning TD if Miller puts some air under the ball on that last INT.  Let's not forget, there were a multitude of other breakdowns and TOs by others.  This was a team effort.  Thanks for the note on Philly -- other than the muff, he did have a gem of a game.

Bloombergl's picture

To the point about our WR productivity, for an 11W expert who can look at the film, I'd be very curious to know to what degree was the problem WRs not getting open versus Brax just not having the time (or vision) to find them.  I've wondered this over the last several games as the passing has become increasingly inefficient.  Is this a Brax issue or a WR issue?  

buckeyepastor's picture

Great question about the passing game woes.  I've wondered the same thing - if it's the receivers not getting open, or Brax not seeing it.  Whatever it is, I hope it gets better fast.   And with all due respect to the conclusion that of course that won't be a problem next year, I didn't expect it to be such a problem this year.  Spencer, Fields, Smith, and Philly came into the year with a lot of experience and the expectation that they would really raise their game and become serious weapons for the offense.  There were flashes of it against weaker opposition, but they seemed to struggle against tougher opposition with the exception of Wisconsin.   
Herman and others have offered the rationalization that the lack of balance in the offense was warranted and okay because the run game was just that good, but I don't think any coach wants to be left with being one-dimensional on offense.   
I hope Marshall and others step up quickly.   

"Woody would have wanted it that way" 

saevel25's picture

I think it is a bit of both. I think Braxton doesn't read pressure well. He doesn't read delayed blitzes, he gets easily frazzled under pressure. I think he waits to long on passes, which tells me that he takes way to long to read the first WR. He should know by the coverage and by the DB if the number 1 receiver will be open, and should be going to 2 & 3. He locks on to 1, and waits to see if the WR gets open. That is bad because now the timing is off for the other receivers. I also think he doesn't like to throw in tight windows. Let the WR make a play. All you need is half a step, and a few WR were a full step ahead of the DB last night. Braxton could easily thrown a ball and at least give it a shot. Now the only pass he likes to throw is to the TE when no one is with in 30 yards of him. At least in the big ten championship game he threw a perfect over the shoulder pass that was broken up by a better play by the MSU DB. Braxton didn't try to throw it 500 mph, he laid it in the WR hands. He has the ability to put touch on the ball. He just needs to DO IT!!!  
I hate to say this, because I am a Braxton fan. I wonder sometimes what the offense would look like with Kenny G. back there who actually knows the playbook and knows how to go through progressions. 

Buckifan4Life's picture

Next year I'd like to see Braxton move a safety out of position with a pump fake so he can strategically hit the receiver he wants. This simple technique would be a very effective weapon for him.

cuttyrock's picture

If anyone watched the playoff game yesterday of the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles I saw an interesting tidbit. Nick Foles picked this up from Tom Brady when he separates his off hand from the ball and pats it. He says it throws db off and he gets the ball out faster. I think this could be a reason why Folk has improved so much. The announcers stated that "Foles said it works like a pump fake that's subtle, takes less time, and helps get the ball out faster." I think this can help Miller get wr open.

rosycheeks's picture

11W staff,
I have a couple serious questions. I don't want to sound like a complainer, but these are things that truly make no sense to me, but there must (?) have been a logical reason for these things. You guys know more than I do, so what say you?
1) When allowing the screen game was CLEARLY not working, why not make an adjustment and take the chance on the long ball?
2) When teams stack the box, why is Ohio State so unwilling to just come out and chuck the ball all over the yard. Not just quick outs to Philly, and not just 50-yard heaves either -- I'm talking 15-20 yard passes.
3) Urban said he wanted to see more Vonn Bell all season. Why didn't he? He's in charge, right?
No offense to any other readers, but I'm really looking for staff answers here (if they would be so kind). I don't want this to spiral into a bitch session.
Thanks.