Wednesday Skull Session

Good morning and welcome to your Wednesday Skull Session. 

I don't know about you guys, but that bye week seemed like a full offseason to me – I cannot wait for this Saturday's game. 

We mentioned this a little during Penn State week, but I absolutely agree with Corey-Philly Brown that Wisconsin has assumed the #2 spot on my Biggest Rivals list – maybe even the 1B to Michigan's 1A. 

Part of it has to do with that 2010 game, part of it has to do with me living with a Wisconsin fan for the last two years, and part of it has to do with Bret Bielema, undoubtedly. 

The fact that Wisconsin is finally pulling things together after some early-season woes – remember when they were ranked here? – makes me want to beat them more. 

So read up on Wisconsin's strategy and let's get to some stats.

 PUT DOWN THE WISCY, VEGAS. I still can't get over the fact that Wisconsin opened as 2½ point favorites over the Buckeyes. I must be in the minority, because the line has now jumped to 3 points. 

So what am I missing? Let's breakdown some of the statistical matchups: 

1. Ohio State rushing defense vs. Wisconsin rushing offense: While Wisconsin brings in the 17th-ranked rushing offense, this ranking is entirely due to three games: Purdue, Minnesota, and Indiana – i.e. turrrrible rushing defenses. 

Against FBS-winning teams, Wisconsin only averages 146 yards per game and is ranked 53rd. Ohio State, in comparison, averaged 119 yards per game (16th overall) against ranked teams. 

Further, when we disaggregate Ohio State rush defense by type of opponent offense, we see that Ohio State has been much better at defending pro-style rushing attacks than spread-based rushing attacks.

To be fair, Ohio State has played few overall quality spread teams (Nebraska is the only ranked "spread" opponent) and not all spread offenses are created equal, but even bad spread-offense teams found success against Ohio State's defense earlier in the season:

I expect Ohio State to fare well against Ball and White, just like the Bullets did against Le'Veon Bell, Zwinack, and Belton. 

2. Ohio State offense vs. Wisconsin defense: It's also worth looking at how the Buckeye's offensive strength – its hydra in the ground game – matches up with the Wisconsin rush defense. 

Against FBS-winning teams, Wisconsin is ranked 29th, giving up 140 yards per game on the ground, while Ohio State averages 287 yards per game, which is good for fifth in the country. 

Ohio State has had undoubtedly an easy schedule this year, only facing three FBS-winning defenses on the season (Wisconsin has four). 

In four games against winning teams, Wisconsin has the 22nd-ranked pass defense in the country. 

3. Curt Phillips, Wisconsin Quarterback: There doesn't seem to be anything here...

But really - Phillips has only started against Indiana, going 4/7 for 41 yards. Hard to think he'll pose too much of a threat against the worst part of Ohio State's defense. 

This means that Wisconsin should be almost entirely one-dimensional on offense (though that dimension is undoubtedly a good one). I guess Phillips could come out and sling it like Iowa's Vandenberg did against OSU in 2009, but I'm not seeing it. 

BUCKY IS FEELING CONFIDENT. Bucky's 5th Quarter agrees with Vegas and believes that Wisconsin will get the win for three reasons: 1. Ohio State plays down to its competition, 2. Wisconsin has 5 healthy starting linemen, and 3. the Badgers have a decided defensive advantage. 

While I definitely cannot disagree with the five healthy starting linemen argument, I'd like to present some counterarguments for why OSU will win.

While Ohio State may have played down to its competition earlier in the year, it has also played extremely well against good teams (Michigan State, Nebraska, and Penn State). Ohio State doesn't perceive Wisconsin as a a bad team anyway, as evidenced by Boren and Meyer's comments yesterday:

Boren said "rivalry" is the first word that comes to mind when he thinks about Wisconsin. Called the games with them a heavyweight fight.

— Kyle Rowland (@KyleRowland) November 12, 2012

The Buckeyes won't be taking this game lightly and should play up to the competition. 

Second, while I respect Wisconsin's defense, it also gave up 259 rushing yards to Nebraska. Ohio State can equal, if not best, Nebraska's rushing output against Wisconsin behind Miller, Hyde, and Smith (not to mention a few Corey Brown carries too). 

Calipari Scissor Hands is a member of the Flopping Police 

ROUNDBALL CONTROVERSY. Kentucky and Duke squared off in an early-season heavyweight matchup, with Duke taking it, 75-68. 

Besides the tight game between two traditional powerhouses in basketball, Coach Calipari livened up the post game with a little bit of amnesia:

When ESPN's Andy Katz stuck a microphone in the Kentucky coach's face at halftime of his team's excellent Champions Classic game against Duke, this was the money quote from Cal: "They're flopping all over the place. In the NBA, they'd all be suspended."

A few hours later following the game:

"I did?" Calipari said. "I don't even remember. What did I say?" As the reporter attempted to refresh Cal's memory, the coach cut him off. "It was a joke," he said. "Come on, you guys can take a joke at Duke. Geez."

LOL. Coach Cal! So funny. Flopping accusations are HI-LAR-I-OUS. The Duke response:

Coach K on Cal's halftime comments: "He can say whatever he wants. There’s a difference between a flop and a charge."

— Kyle Tucker (@KyleTucker_CJ) November 14, 2012

The good news is that Thad Matta and the basketball Bucks will get to see these floppin' Blue Devils firsthand when they come to town vist Duke on November 28th as a probable top-5 team. Not that the Buckeyes don't have their hands full already with in-conference matchups. 

Also, a reminder of how awesome sports are: in the span of five days, you'll be able to see both The Game on 11/24 and the OSU-Duke basketball matchup. YES.

BACKYARD FOOTBALL. Apparently backyard football is alive and well in the NCAA, as former top recruit Dorial Green-Beckham drew up a play on his hand (admittedly it sounds more like just a route) in order to tie the game against Tennessee (which they'd later win in 4 overtimes). 

Yep, just like you used to do with the neighbor kids during two-hand touch in the street, Green-Beckham ran to the huddle and started diagramming what would ultimately be a 25-yard touchdown pass with 47 seconds remaining in regulation. Missouri would go on to win the game 51-48 in four overtimes.

Listen, I do that all the time in my flag football league and it NEVER goes that well. Maybe it has to do with me not being 6'6" and not being able to run a 4.43 40. Could be. 

 HEY GUYS IT'S LINKIN TIME. The video games have OSU losing to Wisconsin... This Aggie actually did what you and all your drunk friends always talk about at games – get on the field... Finally, the mother of all meltdowns, Bama's own... Typical Kentucky fans... DANE! (h/t Sarah)... USC-UCLA rivalry just got intense, ya'll... Some Oregon strategic innovation. So typical.