Monday Skull Session

By D.J. Byrnes on March 3, 2014 at 6:00 am
DAT FAME
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Folks, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the men's basketball team isn't very good. (Kyle has the full autopsy report on the Indiana game over here.) Thad Matta squeezing 22 wins out of this team is a minor miracle akin to squeezing blood from a stone.

It's frustrating because the team is filled with likable guys. It's definitely not for lack of effort; the talent simply isn't there. They've struggled without a consistent scorer, and it's not like DeShaun Thomas or Jared Sullinger is walking through that door before the tournament.

Speaking of the tournament, can we just end Ohio State's season after the Big Ten one? I have little interest in watching Ohio State losing in the first round to a team like Sienna, or worse yet, getting drilled by a #1 seed in the second round. Why give the haterz the pleasure?

THE HUNT FOR CAPTAIN KIRK. The big Ohio State football news over the weekend was their hosting of the nation's No. 2 rated wide receiver prospect in Christian Kirk. 

The Arizona burner was hosted by Raekwon McMillan and Johnnie Dixon — Birm has the full breakdown over here — but needless to say, OSU left an impression on the kid:

"I had high expectations coming in, but Ohio State exceeded them by a lot. The first day was filled with seeing just the main football facility and practice fields, stuff like that in the morning. The rest of the day was a series of academic meetings, and then we met with Archie Griffin which was an experience I'll never forget. The (second day) was more about football stuff, like seeing the weight room, the stadium, and sitting down watching film."

[...]

"I came here wanting to feel comfortable with this place. I got just that."

If Urban continues his trend of bringing in more talented recruiting classes than the one preceding it... Ohio State could be poised for a massive haul in 2015. Here's 2015's No. 1 QB:

I'll leave those here and let y'all marinate on the idea of Gibson to Kirk in the Horseshoe.

CHRIS ASH'S CLEAN SLATE. Ohio State opens spring practice on Tuesday and while there will be plenty of storylines to watch, most eyes will be on Chris Ash's tweaks to the defense.

Tim May ran a column on this idea in Sunday's Columbus Dispatch:

“If you ask me what one of my strengths is, I’m a student of the game,” Ash said. “I study football year-round. I’m relentless in my pursuit to identify new ideas that can help me become better, as long as they fit what we try to do defensively. I’m not going to go out and grab this blitz, this coverage, this whatever if it doesn’t fit our personnel or our philosophy.”

Ash has a reputation for pushing press coverage and at times causing chaos for the offense by deploying unconventional looks. But conventional soundness, he said, is always at the heart of it all.

“We’re going to align (correctly) and we’re going to play great technique, great effort and good fundamentals. We’ve got to get that done,” Ash said. “But we also have to understand we’ve got to create issues for an offense. We’ve got to create problems and put pressure on the quarterback. We have to make sure in our package we can do that. And then when you get to third down, you’ve got to create confusion, and we’re going to do that. Those are the things that I think are important.”

I'm not one of those "Fire Fickell" people, because Urban Meyer has earned my unconditional trust. That said, last year's defense was the antithesis of the Florida defense that mauled Ohio State in the 2007 national title game. It was as baffling to watch as it was frustrating.

Chris Ash doesn't seem to be a guy very accepting of passive defenses. He inherits a backfield with only one returning full-time starter, so I guess we'll see what he can do. I'm of the opinion Urban's hiring track record speaks for itself, but I do like how the personnel will dictate the scheme, and not vice versa.

MONEYBALL COMING TO CFB. Forbes ran an interesting article yesterday; with the birth of the College Football Playoff happening next year, the selection committee is staffed by a bunch of old-world power-brokers. Which is fine, but if they're to choose the four best teams, they're going to need as much information as possible about the pool of teams from which they're selecting. 

Enter data gurus from — where else? — ESPN (who coincidentally owns the rights to the College Football Playoff):

Picking the four best teams means going beyond the basics of won-lost record and strength of schedule. It means breaking down each game, quarter by quarter, to assess the level of domnence. For example, last year’s national champion, Florida State, would have been a deserving high seed in a playoff (some thought [t]hey didn’t due to their less-than-stellar ACC schedule) not only for going 13-0 but by winning every game by at least 14 points. And particularly telling: the constant recalculation of a team’s odds of winning as a game progresses. In FSU’s case, the ESPN staff figured their average in-game odds of 84% for the season, thanks to so many big leads and statitistical dominance early in games. That means they typically had an 84% chance of winning at each point in each game during the season.  That metric eliminates the need for teams to run up scores against helpless opponents. Example: in one game last fall Florida State jumped out to an early 35-0 lead over North Carolina State before calling off the dogs and winning 49-17. The game gets classified as a “blowout win” regardless of the final score, thanks to the constant in-game tracking of the odds of winning.

Add up all the advanced stats for FSU and their  opponents for the season, and the analysts assert that an average team would have won seven games playing the Seminoles’ schedule, making their 13 wins genuinely impressive. Maybe even more interesting – the ESPN crew had numbers to support the view that Alabama, No. 1 and undefeated all year until a flukish, last second loss to Auburn in the regular season finale, didn’t deserve a spot in the final four. Given their so-so competition – strong SEC teams like Georgia and Missouri weren’t on the Tide’s schedule in 2013 – the advanced numbers show that a typical Top 25 team had a 36% chance of duplicating their record against the same schedule. That puts Alabama a tad behind Michigan State (30%) and Stanford (29%), who would have ostensibly joined Florida State and Auburn in a four team tournament.

The last tidbit about Alabama is interesting because 1) it backs up Ramzy's destruction of Alabama and their schedule from last week and 2) is there any doubt Stanford or Michigan State would have been passed over for Alabama?

Michigan State was the true loser of 2014. Especially after the Super Bowl, I'll always take a superb defense over a superb offensive any day of the week. The Spartans could have beaten anyone out of Auburn, Florida State, Stanford (proven) or Alabama.

How in the world did they lose to a Notre Dame team quarterbacked by "Touchdown" Tommy Rees? That had to be the most "Sparty noooo!" moment of the last 14 years.

Regardless, it will be interesting to see what kind of suction ESPN's stat people get with the College Football Selection Committee. I don't think any amount of stats would have kept Alabama out of the (hypothetical) playoffs last year, BECAUSE AS WE ALL KNOW, the SEC is the greatest football conference in the country. 

LET'S TALK OHIO MISERY. Here's an image that made the rounds on Twitter yesterday, thanks to the wretched "Ohio Probz" Twitter account:

Good job, idiots, because that chart is listed from the least miserable to the most miserable, meaning Ohio is actually the 5th most miserable state and West Virginia won the dubious honor. Y'AINT HANGING THAT CROWN ON OHIO ON MY WATCH, PAL.

But 3,000+ RTs and 2,000+ Favorites later, and I doubt whatever schlub who's behind the account really gives a damn. Such is the nature of the internet.

Here's the rub on why Ohio ranked so low in citizen happiness:

> Well-being index score: 64.2
> Life expectancy: 77.8 years (13th lowest)
> Percent obese: 30.9% (8th highest)
> Median household income: $46,829 (17th lowest)
> Percent with high school diploma: 88.8% (25th highest)

Despite its low well-being score, Ohio stands out from other low ranking states because it doesn't exhibit many of the elements often present in those states. For one, Ohio's median household income of $46,829 in 2012 was higher than most states with low well-being scores. Similarly, its residents had better access to basic needs than residents of other low well-being states. However, residents generally had low evaluations of their lives, trailing only West Virginia and Kentucky by that measure. Just 49.3% of respondents stated they were thriving in their lives last year, one of the lowest proportions in the nation. Relatively few respondents indicated they had a learning experience within the previous 24 hours, and residents were among the most likely in the U.S. to have felt angry that day. This contributed to Ohio's low ranking for emotional health.

The only thing miserable about Ohio is the 2013-2014 winter, which has been as awful as any I can remember. I love fall, spring and summer... but I could do without winter.

And yes, Ohioans don't report everyday learning experiences because we've already amassed a majority of human knowledge.

Secondly, of course we report everyday anger... have you seen some of the clowns our government has given permission to pilot automobiles? It's absolutely mind-numbing. Ohioans have many talents... merging is not one of them.

Ohio is a great state; one I would argue is the best in the country. To truly appreciate Ohio, however, sometimes you have to live outside the state for an extended time. That's why I get a kick out of people who pretend all their life's problems will be solved the minute they leave the state — they're in for a life-lesson on the green grass on the other side of the valley.

Maybe it's because I have lived in the best and third best city in Ohio (1. Marion, 2. Cleveland, 3. Columbus) and have been blessed enough to travel to every corner of this magnificent state, but I am secure in my citizenship and welcome the hate. I hope these idiots keep sleeping on Ohio, because it means more space and resources for the rest of us. GO BUCKS!

THOSE WMDs. Christian Benteke, you BEAUTIFUL WIZARD... Okay, this Bundesliga goal might be nastier... Kanye West is disgusted by having to use coins... Rulings in Ohio mount against traffic cameras... Little Boy Lost... Inside The Violent, Geeky World Of Hardcore International Medieval Combat... Rescue from Antarctica... Human side of Ohio's heroin struggles has many faces... Who knew DJ Khaled was so unintentionally funny?... Spoilers for True Detective's finale... 

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