Michigan Pregame Picks: Staff Score Predictions, Picking Against the Spread, and Eleven Warriors House Prop Bets

By 11W Staff on November 27, 2021 at 9:00 am
Rick Osentoski | USA TODAY Sports
Rick Osentoski | USA TODAY Sports
29 Comments

Ohio State and its fans are just a few hours away from the return of The Game.

The No. 2 Buckeyes will take on the No. 5 Michigan Wolverines in what will be the first top-5 meeting between these schools since 2016 when the the contest went to the only overtime periods in the rivalry's history.

Last season marked the first absence of The Game in over a century. Not since 1917 had the Buckeyes and Wolverines failed to meet over football in either Ann Arbor or Columbus.

This year, each team enters with an opportunity to advance to the Big Ten Championship. Between two seasons' worth of bragging rights, a divisional title, and continued College Football Playoff consideration; the stakes are clear as day.

The Big House figures to be lively early on, as home fans have waited on a win over Ohio State for now roughly a decade. Men's basketball coach Juwan Howard has been vocal of his desire to help bring Michigan's "12th man" to life this weekend, and backup running back Blake Corum has respectfully requested a corn-out.

Even in potentially snowy conditions, the Buckeye offense should be eager to turn up the heat early on. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are 152 and 61 yards respectfully away from helping anoint Ohio State as the first Big Ten school to produce three 1,000 yard receivers in the same season.

How do you picture The Game unfolding? Does C.J. Stroud continue his stride towards the Heisman trophy, or will Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara help turn this meeting into an uncomfortable shootout?

Here are a host of predictions from some of the Buckeye football connoisseurs on the 11W staff:

Eleven Warriors Staff Score Predictions

Dan Hope: Ohio State 52, Michigan 24. "On paper, Michigan’s defense should be able to keep this game closer. But that was also true when the Buckeyes scored 62 points in 2018 and 56 points in 2019, and I expect them to rise to the occasion again this year."

Chris Lauderback: Ohio State 42, Michigan 21. "Buckeyes have too many horses on offense and I like how OSU stacks up against Michigan's supposed pass rush and running game strengths."

Johnny Ginter: Ohio State 35, Michigan 28. "I hate admitting that Michigan is Actually Good as much as anyone, but they're the Big Ten team that's best equipped to give Ohio State a run for their money, and I think they will."

“Michigan’s defense should be able to keep this game closer... that was also true when the Buckeyes scored 62 points in 2018 and 56 points in 2019.”

Jason Priestas: Ohio State 37, Michigan 21. "Michigan comes out buzzing and their crowd is into it but the talent gap (and Ryan Day’s play calling) is simply too much.”

Garrick Hodge: Ohio State 56, Michigan 28. "I'm a complete believer in the Buckeyes' offense after watching that demolition of Michigan State, and there's no way they're going to slow down in a game they prepare for 364 days a year."

Jared Naughton: Ohio State 42, Michigan 24. "I feel this will be a close game up till halftime, their offense can’t keep pace."

Griffin Strom: Ohio State 41, Michigan 27. "Michigan may be able to slow the breakneck pace of Ohio State’s offensive onslaught, but not enough to beat the Buckeyes or come closer than a 14-point margin when the clocks hit zero on a ninth straight scarlet and gray win in The Game."

Matt Gutridge: Ohio State 49, That Team 17. "Ryan Day doesn't hang 100 on them, but 49 should be more than enough to put That Team in its place."

Bruce Thomas: Ohio State 45, Michigan 21. "C.J. Stroud creates more distance between himself and the rest of the Heisman field."

Check out this week's Eleven Warriors Roundtable for scoring predictions from Ramzy Nasrallah, Kevin Harrish, and George Eisner.

Will Ohio State Cover?

The Vegas oracles installed the Buckeyes as a seven point favorite last weekend when odds first dropped for rivalry week. Though now -7.5 as of this morning, the original figure is less than half of the next-shortest spread that Ohio State has seen all season, which goes back to the September meeting with Oregon that recognized the Ducks as 14.5 point underdogs.

At the current spread, roughly 86 percent (12 of 14) of our staff predictions have Ohio State covering. Only Johnny Ginter and George Eisner have predicted Michigan to finish The Game within a touchdown or less.

Thankfully, none of the staff had the audacity to pick That Team Up North as an upset winner — or even to finish The Game with at least 30 points. Four staffers share the highest score prediction for Michigan at 28, while Kevin and Matt each have U-M scoring 17 or less.

What About the Over?

The Game's scoring total originally debuted at 63, but has since increased slightly up to 64.5 points.

Eight of our 14 predictions favor the over, and Garrick's prediction of 84 total points comfortably beats out the second-highest prediction by a margin of seven. For those examining the under, Jason conversely registered the shallowest scoring prediction with 58 total points.

Eleven Warriors House Prop Bets

We'll try to make matters a bit more interesting today with a selection of prop lines posted directly below by Eleven Warriors. Make your predictions in the comments and compete for bragging rights.

  • How many receptions will Garrett Wilson have?
    • Six or more (-150)
    • Less than six (+130)
  • How many passing touchdowns will Michigan score?
    • More than two (+140)
    • Two or less (-105)
  • How many total tackles for Steele Chambers?
    • ​More than five (+120)
    • Five or less (-110)

Before the Buckeyes and Wolverines square off in the (highly likely) snow, make sure to post your official Eleven Warriors Prognostication prior to kickoff for an opportunity to win a free shirt from Eleven Warriors Dry Goods.

29 Comments
View 29 Comments