We've reached the midpoint of Ohio State's regular season with Ryan Day's squad sitting on a 5-1 record ahead of a backloaded conference schedule.
It's been quite the ride over the first six games, particularly on defense but what matters is the Buckeyes, despite a game two loss at home to Oregon, control their conference and playoff destiny in a loaded Big Ten.
Here to offer thoughts on Ohio State's season-to-date, along with the national landscape, are 11W's own Dan Hope, Ramzy Nasrallah and Matt Gutridge.
At the midpoint of the regular season schedule, Ohio State boasts the nation's top-ranked total offense at 562 yards per game. What's the most surprising reason as to why that's the case? C.J. Stroud's bounce-back the last few weeks? TreVeyon Henderson's emergence? Something else?
Ramzy: I think we’ll always wonder how that Oregon game would have gone had Coach Day tapped in Mr. Miyagi to heal Stroud’s shoulder that week instead of Akron week. This is the best pass-blocking Ohio State OL I’ve seen in my life. The 1994 one with Korey Stringer and Orlando Pace always sticks in my head but that might be because of the shaky lines that preceded that one. I think we knew Stroud was legit when Olave returned for one more round. But if this line continues pass-blocking like this and the Buckeyes don’t play any games in a monsoon, they’re not losing again even if they give up 35 like they did to Oregon.
Matt: Yes, Stroud’s resurgence has provided to be a pleasant surprise. Warning, a little humble brag coming up. I expected Henderson to be the No. 1 running back and to be on track to break the freshman rushing record – which he is – but did not expect him to average 8.8 yards per carry.
With that said, I’m most surprised at the seemingly easy transition the offensive line has made. They have protected Stroud and created gaping holes for Henderson and the other backs. Big ups to the big uglies.
Dan: I don't know that any of it should be particularly surprising. This offense always had the potential to be the best in the country, and it shouldn't come as a surprise that Stroud and Henderson are getting better with experience – though Stroud certainly has been noticeably better since he got a week off to rest his shoulder, and I will admit that I didn't foresee Henderson becoming a bellcow back for the Buckeyes quite so quickly. The pieces have always been there for Ohio State to have an elite offense this year, though, and it feels like everything has come together over the last couple of weeks since Stroud got healthy.
It feels like Ohio State's defense is finding some footing over the last few weeks and is now 33rd in scoring defense giving up 20.5 points a game. Will the progress continue? Can this group become championship caliber? What still needs to happen for that to become reality?
Dan: I believe the defense has made real progress over the last three to four weeks, and there's reason for optimism that will continue as the Buckeyes’ young defensive players continue to gain more experience. This year's defense probably won't ever be an elite unit that can shut down the top offenses in the country, but if championship-caliber simply means good enough to win a championship, I think that's attainable because of Ohio State's elite offense. The Buckeyes don't need their defense to be a dominant force; they just need it to make enough stops to allow their offense to take control of the game. They can't allow an opponent to pick it apart like Alabama did in last year's national championship game, but if this defense can at least play competitive football for four quarters, Ohio State's offense will give it a chance to win any game it plays.
Ramzy: Obviously the coaching shuffle and the emergence of Steele Chambers have amplified a young defense’s progression. The pass rush still isn’t anything close to what it would need to be against non-Rutgersish competition. The other thing is - and I say this in my most Browns voice possible - key guys are out every week. They really miss Josh Proctor, who is not returning. Tyreke Smith has missed a lot of time. We haven’t seen and won’t see them at full strength this season. What I worry about isn’t stalled development, but what happens if they continue to absorb losses?
That said, no one on the schedule is outscoring this team unless something catastrophic happens on the other side of the ball.
Matt: Facing the putrid offenses of Akron (109th) and Rutgers (100th) definitely helped the defense’s numbers. With that said, the way Ohio State’s defense was playing prior to those contests, it is a pleasant turn of events to observe improvement on that side of the ball.
The talent appears to be there for Ohio State’s defensive unit to become championship caliber. With more practice reps, game experience and confidence it could get there, but at this point, I’ll settle for a competent level defense.
Ryan Day's squad stands at 5-1 with the lone loss coming out of conference to Oregon. Said differently, it feels like all of Ohio State's preseason goals remain intact despite some bumps and bruises along the way. How would you grade his performance at the regular season mid-point?
Matt: If this question was asked immediately after the loss to Oregon, Day would receive a C. The defense was in shambles and the Ducks were able to get Ohio State’s offense off the field during key moments of the second half.
However, Day has demonstrated his worth since the loss by addressing the issues that caused the unexpected loss. If the defensive coaching situation was handled differently, the season could have been lost. Instead, the team rebounded and both the offense and defense continue to improve on a weekly basis. Much credit goes to Day – and Coombs – for keeping things professional and in the best interest of the team.
With the progress made, B+ is Day’s cumulative grade.
Dan: I'll give Day and the Buckeyes a B+. The start of the season was shaky, and the loss to Oregon eliminated the margin for error for the rest of the regular season, which could certainly come back to bite the Buckeyes in the second half. But while many Ohio State fans were ready to fast forward to 2022 after that Oregon loss, the Buckeyes have responded about as well as anyone could have hoped, playing excellent football in their last three games to re-emerge as a national championship contender. Day deserves credit for recognizing that changes needed to be made on the defensive side of the ball and making the tough decision to demote Kerry Coombs, which certainly appears to have been the right decision as the defense has improved under the leadership of Matt Barnes. He also deserves credit for standing firmly behind C.J. Stroud when Stroud was inconsistent early in the season, as it's now become clear why he named Stroud the starting quarterback in the first place.
Ramzy: It’s a B because of the defense. Special teams have been an A, offense has been an A, defense has been a C (it would be a C-/D+ if it wasn’t, you know, scoring every game). If you’re the worrying type, the second half of this class is much harder than the first half. Another B might not get the Buckeyes back into the CFP again.
Ohio State's schedule is back-loaded with regular season games yet to come against Penn State and Michigan State, both in Ohio Stadium, and of course a trip to Ann Arbor. Which of those three games should pose the stiffest test? If I included Iowa in the Big Ten championship, which would assume OSU likely won all three of those regular season matchups, where might they rank on your list of toughest games left?
Ramzy: They have the hardest remaining schedule by far. If MSU beats Michigan, Sparty will come to Columbus undefeated. It’s nothing but heavyweights and trap games from here on out. 1. @Michigan 2. Sparty 3. @Nebraska - this has November B1G West road game radioactive trappy trap nightmare written all over it 4. Penn State, mostly because we’ve now seen what happens if Clifford can’t play 5. Purdue 6. @ IU. If the Hoosiers beat Sparty on Saturday I reserve the right to completely reupholster those rankings. This season is already chaotic. I think we’d be foolish to accept chalk all the way to Indy.
Matt: It doesn’t matter the year, the records or the talent level, The Game is always the stiffest test. This year, Penn State is a close second – if Clifford is healthy. Michigan State has a solid team and poses the threat of sneaking up on the Buckeyes, but let’s not get into the ghosts of Spartans past.
If Ohio State and Iowa face each other for the Big Ten championship, I’d place Iowa slightly above Penn State on the difficulty meter. Yes, Ferentz’s offense is a steaming pile of crap. However, his defense has been ball-hawking and leads the nation with a plus 2.5 turnover margin.
Dan: Although I'd still be hard-pressed to pick Michigan to beat Ohio State given the recent history of the rivalry, I'm going to put the Wolverines at the top of the list since it's the only one of those games the Buckeyes will play on the road and because the Wolverines appear to have the goods to challenge Ohio State on both sides of the ball. I'm going to rank Michigan State second because the Spartans have the most complete offense of any of these four teams, which will make that game a massive test for Ohio State's defense. It feels wrong to put Penn State at the bottom of the list given the recent history between those teams, but the Nittany Lions' chances of beating Ohio State could depend upon whether Sean Clifford is healthy, and that's in question right now. I'll rank Iowa just ahead of Penn State because while the Hawkeyes’ defense is elite, they aren't intimidating on offense, and it will be much tougher for the Hawkeyes to beat Ohio State in the same low-scoring fashion that they've beaten everyone else in so far.
Throw the rankings out since the current polls are useless anyway. Who are the four best teams in college football right now? Do those four ultimately make the playoff?
Dan: Considering that Georgia has already won three games against teams who were ranked at the time and is playing historically great defense right now, holding all of its first six opponents to 13 points or less, I have to put the Bulldogs at No. 1. In terms of which teams I'd pick to win a game on a neutral field right now, Alabama and Ohio State are a coin flip for No. 2 – and considering how mediocre Alabama looked against Texas A&M, I'm siding with the Buckeyes at this moment. With a drop-off between those three and everyone else in my opinion, I'm going to give the fourth spot to Luke Fickell's squad in Cincinnati, who certainly isn't one of the four most talented teams in college football but is currently the only team in the country ranked in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense.
I would like to say that I think all four of those teams will make the College Football Playoff, too, as I'm predicting all of them will win out except for Alabama beating Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, but my head tells me Cincinnati gets left out in favor of Oklahoma (which I think will lose a game but would still likely get in as a 12-1 Big 12 champion) or a second Big Ten team if two Big Ten teams finish with one loss.
Ramzy: The rankings have it mostly right, since chaos doesn’t like to be neatly compartmentalized. Georgia, Iowa, Cincinnati are correct for 1-3, then it gets spicy. The meth lab Oklahoma has been chilling out in over its first six games is ripe to explode soon. Bama has no ranked opponents left, along with four straight home games late in the season because its conference gerrymanders everything in its favor. Kentucky and Oklahoma State both have legitimacy tryouts coming up. Then there’s the B1G East foursome camped out in the Top 10.
I think we end up with Iowa and the B1G East champ along with Georgia and Alabama as the four CFP bids, the latter of which will get every single call in Atlanta and beat the Bulldogs, opening the door for both of them to get in. Cincinnati will have a shaky win or a shocking loss that will knock them out - they’ll get dinged on optics or something silly. But it’s silly season. Deep down, it's what the people want - the chaos and subjectivity of the college model, but with the results of a neatly organized and methodical NFL system.
Matt: According to RJ Young, it’s Georgia, Iowa, Oklahoma State and Cincinnati.
Now that we’ve paid the troll toll, I’ll go with Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama and Cincinnati. Yes, Alabama lost to Texas A&M, but is there a team that’s not on my list you are confident can beat Saban’s demon squad? Fair or not, Alabama is always allowed to lose one game without punishment.
With the topsy-turvy nature of this season, no, it is unlikely that all four of the teams will make the playoff. Will this be the year a team with two losses makes it in? Probably not, but I’m getting 2007 vibes from this season. Hang on for what could be a wild ride.
