Preview: No. 5 Oklahoma at No. 2 Ohio State

The Sooners appeared to have fallen on hard times when they were defeated by Ohio State, 45-24, in their home stadium on Sept. 17, 2016. The Sooners had a 1-2 record to start the year, having also lost their season opener to Houston, after the Buckeyes handed them their second-most lopsided home loss of the Bob Stoops era.

As it turns out, the Sooners haven’t lost a single game since. Oklahoma has won its last 11 straight games dating back to last season, and currently holds the Football Bowl Subdivision’s longest active winning streak.

That’s why the Sooners are the No. 5-ranked team in the AP Top 25. To keep their winning streak going, however, they’ll have to flip the script on the No. 2-ranked Buckeyes – and do it at Ohio Stadium in the Buckeyes’ home opener.

Oklahoma appears to be a better team than it was at this time last year, but so does Ohio State, and the Buckeyes will have home-field advantage on their side this time.

The Buckeyes are looking forward to playing in front of their home crowd for the first time since last November – and doing so under the lights against a marquee opponent.

OKLAHOMA SOONERS

1-0 ROSTER / SCHEDULE

7:30 P.M. – SATURDAY, SEPT. 9 OHIO STADIUM COLUMBUS, OHIO

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"There’s nothing like the home opener, coming out, running down the tunnel, fireworks and stuff," said Ohio State defensive end Tyquan Lewis. "It’s epic."

Once the pregame pageantry ends, however, the focus for both teams will be upon winning a game that could shape both of their seasons.

To understand the potential ramifications of Saturday’s game, one only needs to look back at what last year’s game meant at the end of the season. Ohio State, with only one regular-season loss and the win over Oklahoma on its resume, made the College Football Playoff. Oklahoma, despite its nine straight wins to end the regular season, was left out of the playoff because of its two early-season losses.

The winner of this year’s game will be ranked among the top four teams in the nation and move into early position for this year’s College Football Playoff field, while the loser will have no margin for error for the rest of the year.

Those ramifications aren’t lost on the Buckeyes.

"It’s a must-win game if we want to do what we want to do," said Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa.

OKLAHOMA BREAKDOWN

While Oklahoma cruised to a 56-7 victory in its season opener, that win came against UTEP – a Conference USA team that went 4-8 last year and isn’t expected to be much better this year. The Sooners took a 35-7 lead into halftime and didn’t even play many of their stars, including quarterback Baker Mayfield, in the second half.

That makes this week’s game not only the first real test of the Sooners’ season, but also the first real test for the Sooners under new head coach Lincoln Riley, who took the reins of the program in June when Stoops – the Sooners’ head coach for the last 18 years – abruptly announced his retirement.

Riley has never been a head coach before this season, so this is a week of many firsts for the Sooners’ 34-year-old leader: first road game as a head coach, first game against a ranked or Power 5 opponent as a head coach, first game on a one-week turnaround as a head coach.

With that being said, Riley isn’t new to Oklahoma – he was the Sooners’ offensive coordinator for the past two years – and the Sooners returned their entire coaching staff outside of Stoops from last season. All of that makes Riley comfortable about his ability to prepare for Saturday’s game despite his newness to the head coaching position.

"We’ve all prepared for a lot of games," Riley said, referring to the Sooners’ coaching staff as a whole. "In the majority of our career, we’re preparing for games on one week’s notice, and so as far as being the head coach, I don’t know that there’s differences in that for me."

Oklahoma's 56-7 win against UTEP was Lincoln Riley's first game as a head coach. Mark D. Smith – USA TODAY Sports

Outside of the coaching change, any breakdown of Oklahoma starts with Mayfield, who returns from last season as one of the top quarterbacks in college football.

A Davey O’Brien Award finalist each of the last two seasons, Mayfield is coming off an outstanding junior campaign in which he completed 70.9 percent of his passes for 3,965 yards and 40 touchdowns with only eight interceptions, combining for a 196.4 passer rating, best among all FBS quarterbacks last season.

Combining quick feet with a quick release and an ability to throw accurately on the move, Mayfield has unusual ability to extend plays behind the line of scrimmage and complete downfield throws under pressure, even though he doesn’t fit the traditional mold of a downfield pocket passer.

Mayfield has "incredible arm strength" too, in the words of Ohio State defensive coordinator Greg Schiano, but the Buckeyes believe the key to slowing Mayfield down is to keep him contained within the pocket.

"We have to have a really, really fine rush plan to make sure that we keep him contained, to make him throw from contain," Schiano said. "He is most dangerous when he has a little bit of space, let receivers get down the field."

Ohio State can feel good about its defensive performance against Mayfield last season. He completed only 17 of his 32 passing attempts (a season-low 53.1 percent) for 226 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, in what was easily his worst statistical performance of the year.

The Buckeyes have had some extra help preparing for Mayfield this year in the form of freshman quarterback Tate Martell, who has run the scout team in practice and offers some similar qualities to Mayfield in terms of his elusiveness and playmaking ability on the move. Going against a freshman in practice, however, isn’t the same as playing a game against a senior with a track record of leading a collegiate team to victories.

"He’s definitely a really good player and he’s been doing it for a while, so it’s pretty clear that he’s one of the best," Bosa said of Mayfield. "He’s like a Tate Martell on steroids."

The challenge of trying to contain Mayfield will be amplified by going against one of the best offensive lines in college football. Led by a 6-foot-8, 345-pound behemoth in left tackle Orlando Brown, the reigning Big 12 Offensive Lineman of the Year, all five of the Sooners’ offensive linemen are returning starters from last season – though only three of them started last season against Ohio State – and they should make things tough on the Buckeyes defense in both pass-rushing and run-defending situations.

"They control the line of scrimmage," said Ohio State coach Urban Meyer. "Very talented, big guys that protect their quarterback, and they control the game. You see all the yards that a team like Oklahoma puts up; sure, their quarterback, receivers, everybody’s a really good player, but they control the line of scrimmage. That’s what makes them so good."

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Oklahoma has one proven downfield playmaker in the passing game in Mark Andrews, an "unusually gifted" tight end who the Sooners use more like a receiver. Andrews has a proven ability to create mismatches with his size and athleticism, and started his season strong last week by catching seven passes for 134 yards and a touchdown in just one half of action against UTEP.

The Sooners have a lack of proven playmakers outside of Andrews, as they lost three of their top four receivers and their two leading rushers from last season, but Oklahoma’s offense still has the potential to score points in bunches against any opponent with Mayfield, Andrews and a top-notch offensive line leading the way.

2017 Statistical Comparison

OFFENSE
49.0	26th	POINTS FOR	56.0	16th
292.0	19th	RUSHING OFFENSE	180.0	57th
304.0	31st	PASSING OFFENSE	496.0	2nd
596.0	13th	TOTAL OFFENSE	676.0	3rd
.421	62nd	3rd DOWNS	.571	20th
1.000	1st	RED ZONE	1.000	1st
DEFENSE
21.0	59th	POINTS ALLOWED	7.0	15th
17.0	5th	RUSH DEFENSE	73.0	32nd
420.0	122nd	PASS DEFENSE	94.0	14th
122.3	72nd	PASS EFFICIENCY DEFENSE	88.5	24th
437.0	88th	TOTAL DEFENSE	167.0	12th
.450	89th	3rd DOWNS	.333	59th
.750	54th	RED ZONE	1.000	76th
SPECIAL TEAMS
3.5	71st	PUNT RETURN	6.5	53rd
25.0	32nd	KICKOFF RETURN	23.0	39th
45.3	14th	NET PUNTING	32.0	111th
MISCELLANEOUS
+ 3.0	1st	TURNOVER MARGIN	+ 1.0	28th
5.0	39th	PENALTIES	5.0	39th
8		EDGE	12

The bigger question for the Sooners is whether they will be solid enough on defense to make stops against the Ohio State offense. While the Sooners ranked third in the FBS in points scored per game (43.9) and second in yards gained per game (554.8) last season, they ranked 68th in points allowed per game (28.8) and 82nd in yards allowed per game (432.0).

Oklahoma defensive coordinator Mike Stoops knows his unit needs to play better against Ohio State this year after allowing 45 points on 443 total yards to the Buckeyes last year.

"We certainly struggled making plays a year ago," Stoops said. "Our coverage is going to have to be better, our pressure’s going to have to be better, so there’s a lot of areas that we certainly can improve on from a year ago."

That said, the Sooners have some highly talented defensive players with the potential to make them better on that side of the ball.

Ohio State center Billy Price said he expects the Sooners’ defensive line to give the Buckeyes a tough challenge. He said he remembers defensive end D.J. Ward and defensive tackle Neville Gallimore providing tough competition last year.

"They’re big and they’re very athletic and they’re talented up front," Price said.

The star in Oklahoma’s front seven is Jack linebacker Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, a versatile defender who is a talented pass-rusher from the edge but can also drop into coverage and has the athleticism to make plays all over the field. Columbus native Emmanuel Beal is the Sooners’ leading returning tackler from last season (second on the team in 2016 with 81 total tackles) and a sound weakside linebacker. Strongside linebacker Caleb Kelly, a former five-star recruit, has the potential to emerge as a difference-maker for the Sooners in his sophomore year.

Ogbonnia Okoronkwo is the star of Oklahoma's defensive front seven. Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma’s secondary is led by senior cornerback Jordan Thomas, a first-team All-Big 12 performer last season, and senior safety Steven Parker, who’s considered to be a leader on the back end. The Sooners lost their No. 3 cornerback for the season when Jordan Parker suffered a knee injury against UTEP, but sophomore starter Parnell Motley is expected to be an upgrade from last year as the Sooners’ No. 2 cornerback.

BUCKEYE BREAKDOWN

While Ohio State ultimately pulled away to a 49-21 victory in its season opener against Indiana – a Big Ten team that provided much more legitimate competition than Oklahoma faced in UTEP – the Buckeyes recognize there are multiple areas in which they might need to play better to earn another win this week.

During the Big Ten teleconference on Wednesday, Meyer singled out three areas in which he believes the Buckeyes need to be better this week: Downfield passing, interior offensive line blocking and passing defense.

After an offseason of emphasis on improving the downfield passing game, Meyer expressed frustration after the Buckeyes failed to complete a deep ball in the season opener. That didn’t stop them from scoring 49 points and putting up 596 yards against Indiana, but it could stop them against an Oklahoma team that has more athletic defenders and more ability to control the field-position battle – as well as the scoreboard – on offense and special teams.

Interior offensive line play wasn’t as obvious an issue in the season opener, considering that the Buckeyes had 292 rushing yards against Indiana while allowing only one sack. But that was an area where the Buckeyes were expected to have to work through some kinks early in the season, with Branden Bowen being a first-time starter at right guard and Billy Price moving to center from right guard.

The biggest area of concern entering the Oklahoma game, considering the aforementioned ability to extend plays and make downfield throws of Mayfield, might well be the passing defense. With three new starters in the Ohio State secondary from last season, the Buckeyes proved to be shaky on the back end in game one, as Indiana threw for 420 yards. Oklahoma probably won’t throw the ball 65 times against the Buckeyes like Indiana did, but it probably will take some shots down the field. The Buckeyes’ defensive backs need to be more consistent in coverage to prevent the Sooners from scoring big points.

Looking back to last year’s win, the Buckeyes no longer have the players who combined to score five offensive touchdowns against the Sooners in Norman. Ohio State does not appear to have a receiver who is remotely close to being ready to having a four-touchdown game like Noah Brown had against Oklahoma last year (of course, there was little indication that Brown himself was capable of such a performance before that game). The Buckeyes also don’t have a player who has proven to be as dynamic with the ball in his hands as Curtis Samuel, who ran for a 36-yard touchdown against Oklahoma last year.

Ohio State does have new, emerging weapons on offense, though, most notably being true freshman running back J.K. Dobbins, who will start Saturday’s game for the Buckeyes after rushing for 181 yards, the most ever by any player in his Ohio State debut, against Indiana. Combined with the expected return of Mike Weber, who missed last week’s season opener with a hamstring injury but ran for 123 yards against Oklahoma last year, the Buckeyes offense could be led by its 1-2 running back punch.

With J.T. Barrett back this year leading the Buckeyes’ passing offense, though, Mike Stoops believes his unit cannot hone in on trying to stop one particular part of Ohio State’s offense, but must play a complete game.

"They’re good across the board," Stoops said of Ohio State’s offense. "They don’t have any weaknesses. You got to match up and play them honest. If you cheat one area, they’re going to get you in another area."

Defensively, the Buckeyes still have their star from last year’s game. Weakside linebacker Jerome Baker had his breakout game against Oklahoma last season, recording seven total tackles, 1.5 sacks and an interception, which he returned 68 yards for his first career touchdown. Baker should be an even better player this year, with a full season of experience now under his belt, so he’s a candidate to have a big day for the Ohio State defense once again.

Ohio State’s defensive line had a fairly quiet game against Oklahoma last season, with the Buckeyes defensive linemen combining for just one total sack, but the Buckeyes defensive line is deeper and more experienced going into this year’s game.

"The defensive front stands out," said Riley, who is also Oklahoma’s offensive play caller. "They got a lot of quality players there."

One of Ohio State’s biggest weapons against Oklahoma last season was Cameron Johnston, who averaged 50.6 yards per punt against the Sooners in 2016, landing all five of his punts inside the Sooners’ 20-yard line. It’s unclear yet whether new Ohio State punter Drue Chrisman is capable of putting together a performance like that, but Chrisman performed solidly in his first game as Johnston’s replacement last week, averaging 45.3 yards with three of six punts inside the 20 at Indiana.

Overall, Riley expects his team to get a big challenge from the Buckeyes, describing Ohio State as "a really good team all the way around."

"They don’t have a ton of weaknesses," Riley said. "I think they do a very nice job defensively overall, very well-coached. And I would say the same thing offensively. They’re a good, complete football team, so it’ll certainly be a good test for us."

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HOW IT PLAYS OUT

Given that the Buckeyes won by three touchdowns in Norman last year, Ohio State fans certainly have reason to be confident entering Saturday’s game in the Shoe. Viewed in that prism, it’s hard to imagine that Oklahoma would be more than 21 points better on the road this year than it was at home last year. In that same prism, it’s easy to believe that Ohio State could run away with a big win on Saturday night.

Look past last year’s result, however, and the more realistic outlook for Saturday’s game is a closely contested game that comes down to the wire.

On paper, this year’s Buckeyes and this year’s Sooners appear to be fairly evenly matched. Both teams are led by experienced quarterbacks with a proven ability to make big plays in big games. Both teams have plenty of talent at the offensive skill positions but are looking for more playmakers to step up. Ohio State has the stronger defensive front, but that advantage could be nullified to some extent by Oklahoma’s offensive line. Both teams’ secondaries have talented players but still have to prove themselves.

While Ohio State was clearly the better team when the Buckeyes met the Sooners in Norman last September, the matchup might have played out differently later in the season, when Oklahoma was playing better football. Regardless of that, it’s a new season now, and while Ohio State has the potential to be better this season than last season – it’s too early to tell – Oklahoma has the potential to be, too.

The Sooners are a top-five team for a reason, which means they should be a tough opponent regardless of where the game is being played.

The only thing we know for sure, though, is that the eyes of the college football world will be on Columbus on Saturday, from ESPN's College GameDay in the morning to the nationally televised game in primetime (7:30 p.m., ABC).

“It’s a must-win game if we want to do what we want to do.”– Ohio State defensive End Nick Bosa

Ultimately, the team that wins Saturday’s game will have a major win under its belt regardless of the margin of victory. It wouldn’t come as a shock if Ohio State won by a big margin, if only because of last year’s result, but Oklahoma has too much talent – and has won too many games in a row – for even winning the game to be a simple expectation.

ELEVEN WARRIORS STAFF PREDICTION: Ohio State 38, Oklahoma 28