Thad Matta arrived at Ohio State after boasting four straight years of 20+ win seasons during a one-year stop at Butler and three seasons at Xavier.
In fact, Matta won no less than 24 games each of those four seasons as he won his conference title three times with one run to the Elite Eight, taboot.
Parlaying that success into bigger and better things, Matta arrived in Columbus for the 2004-05 seasons and promptly delivered a 20-12 campaign with a team ineligible for postseason play.
Having rejuvenated the Buckeye program, Matta then cranked out another 11 seasons of 20+ wins entering this year giving him a remarkable 16 straight seasons reaching that mark.
Things have tightened up in recent years however as Matta's squads were forced to rely on a high volume of wins over non-conference cupcakes to offset less-impressive records in conference and postseason play.
Putting numbers to that statement, Matta's teams have gone 35-27 in regular season conference games over the last 3.5 years for a winning percentage of .564 whereas the four seasons prior saw the Buckeyes rack up 56 wins in 72 such games, good for a winning percentage of .778.
This season is shaping up as no exception to the recent trend with Ohio State's 13 wins coming largely against bad teams:
| OPPONENT | FINAL SCORE | CURRENT OPP KENPOM RANK |
|---|---|---|
| @NAVY | 78-68 | 193 |
| NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL | 69-63 | 132 |
| PROVIDENCE | 72-67 | 64 |
| WESTERN CAROLINA | 66-38 | 326 |
| JACKSON STATE | 78-47 | 330 |
| MARSHALL | 111-70 | 122 |
| FAIRLEIGH-DICKINSON | 70-62 | 246 |
| CONNECTICUT | 64-60 | 104 |
| YOUNGSTOWN STATE | 77-40 | 295 |
| UNC-ASHEVILLE | 79-77 | 102 |
| MICHIGAN STATE | 72-67 | 53 |
| @NEBRASKA | 67-66 | 87 |
| MINNESOTA | 78-72 | 40 |
The average KenPom rank for those 13 victims sits at 161 with three wins over teams ranked between 40 and 87.
Meanwhile, Ohio State's eight defeats have come against much tougher foes with KenPom rankings ranging anywhere from No. 4 (Virginia) to No. 68 (Illinois) with the exception of a fluke loss to No. 294 Florida Atlantic back in early December.
Now sitting at 13-8 overall, 3-5 in league action and 2-5 in road/neutral site contests, Matta needs his team to win close games against better teams exactly as he did last night against Minnesota to have a shot at keeping the streak alive.
| OPPONENT | CURRENT KENPOM RANK |
|---|---|
| @IOWA | 93 |
| MARYLAND | 45 |
| @MICHIGAN | 44 |
| RUTGERS | 134 |
| @MARYLAND | 45 |
| @MICHIGAN STATE | 53 |
| NEBRASKA | 87 |
| WISCONSIN | 10 |
| @PENN STATE | 89 |
| INDIANA | 30 |
Of the remaining 10 regular season games on the slate, just one squad sits outside the top 100 though four teams (Iowa, Rutgers, Nebraska, Penn State) have a lower KenPom rank than Ohio State's current ranking of 56th.
Another hurdle for the Buckeyes comes in the form of five of those games coming on the road where wins are always tough to come by.
Finding seven wins off that list is probably tough even for the most optimistic Thad/Buckeye backer. If forced to wager, I'd say going 6-4 or 5-5 to round out the regular season is the most likely outcome meaning Matta might need to rely on winning a game or two in the B1G conference tournament and/or what seems most likely as an NIT bid to keep his streak alive.
So while another 20-win season remains a realistic possibility, it is reliant on the team sticking together even if forced to play in the NIT for a second straight season.
What is more certain even if Matta does pull out 20 wins is his Buckeye program losing at least 10 games for the fourth straight season. For perspective, Matta's teams lost at least 10 games just three times in the previous nine seasons.
Here's to hoping Matta's streak of 20 win seasons marches on but even if so the pressure to improve in the conference standings and national rankings will only heat up heading into 2017-18.
