Edit: Link to last week's rankings
Edit 2: Computer formula was corrected -- some of the rankings have shuffled particularly at the bottom of the rankings. Sorry!
The Penultimate Rankings of 2021 (don't we love that word here?).
Nothing too surprising here -- except the BCS likes Alabama above Michigan, though the potential matchup wouldn't be different. Oops, the BCS has Michigan at 2. Still, either Alabama or Georgia will lose, so I expect Michigan, with a win over Iowa, to be a firm #2 (pun intended) no matter how that game plays out.
Ohio State lost a staggering 16 percentage points with their loss, which seems harsh for a top 5 matchup, but we ended up at 7 even in the computers, and I really can't fault this at all. All 6 teams above should be, and I think we are better than all the other 2 loss teams.
I have included this week's CFP rankings in the chart, so lets compare with what the BCS has to say vs the committee.
| Team | Record | BCS Rank | BCS Average | AP Poll | AP Avg | Coaches | Coaches Avg | Computer | Computer Avg | CFP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 12-0 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 |
| Michigan | 11-1 | 2 | 0.9211 | 2 | 0.9348 | 3 | 0.9084 | 2 | 0.9200 | 2 |
| Alabama | 11-1 | 3 | 0.9115 | 4 | 0.8955 | 2 | 0.9290 | 3 | 0.9100 | 3 |
| Cincinnati | 12-0 | 4 | 0.8933 | 3 | 0.9174 | 4 | 0.9026 | 4 | 0.8600 | 4 |
| Oklahoma St | 11-1 | 5 | 0.8373 | 5 | 0.8329 | 5 | 0.8290 | 5 | 0.8500 | 5 |
| Notre Dame | 11-1 | 6 | 0.8173 | 6 | 0.8155 | 6 | 0.8065 | 6 | 0.8300 | 6 |
| Ohio St | 10-2 | 7 | 0.7570 | 7 | 0.7400 | 7 | 0.7310 | 7 | 0.8000 | 7 |
| Mississippi | 10-2 | 8 | 0.6935 | 8 | 0.7129 | 8 | 0.7077 | 8 | 0.6600 | 8 |
| Baylor | 10-2 | 9 | 0.6509 | 9 | 0.6877 | 9 | 0.6748 | 11 | 0.5900 | 9 |
| Oklahoma | 10-2 | 10 | 0.5797 | 13 | 0.5400 | 11 | 0.5490 | 9 | 0.6500 | 14 |
| Michigan St | 10-2 | 11 | 0.5792 | 11 | 0.5658 | 13 | 0.5419 | 10 | 0.6300 | 11 |
| Oregon | 10-2 | 12 | 0.5275 | 10 | 0.6013 | 10 | 0.6013 | 15 | 0.3800 | 10 |
| Iowa | 10-2 | 13 | 0.5074 | 15 | 0.4271 | 12 | 0.5452 | 12 | 0.5500 | 13 |
| BYU | 10-2 | 14 | 0.4431 | 12 | 0.5413 | 14 | 0.4781 | 17 | 0.3100 | 12 |
| Wake Forest | 10-2 | 15 | 0.3252 | 18 | 0.3129 | 18 | 0.3426 | 16 | 0.3200 | 16 |
| Pittsburgh | 10-2 | 16 | 0.3243 | 17 | 0.3800 | 15 | 0.4129 | 20 | 0.1800 | 15 |
| Utah | 9-3 | 17 | 0.3183 | 14 | 0.4303 | 17 | 0.3845 | 22 | 0.1400 | 17 |
| San Diego St | 11-1 | 18 | 0.3046 | 19 | 0.2684 | 19 | 0.2555 | 14 | 0.3900 | 19 |
| Houston | 11-1 | 19 | 0.2935 | 16 | 0.3890 | 16 | 0.3916 | 25 | 0.1000 | 21 |
| Louisiana | 11-1 | 20 | 0.2058 | 20 | 0.2045 | 21 | 0.1729 | 19 | 0.2400 | 24 |
| Clemson | 9-3 | 21 | 0.1844 | 22 | 0.1735 | 24 | 0.1097 | 18 | 0.2700 | 20 |
| Wisconsin | 8-4 | 22 | 0.1695 | NR | 0.0439 | NR | 0.0645 | 13 | 0.4000 | NR |
| NC State | 9-3 | 23 | 0.1418 | 21 | 0.2000 | 20 | 0.2155 | NR | 0.0100 | 18 |
| Arkansas | 8-4 | 24 | 0.0935 | 23 | 0.1381 | 25 | 0.0826 | NR | 0.0600 | 22 |
| Texas A&M | 8-4 | 25 | 0.0919 | 24 | 0.0755 | 23 | 0.1303 | NR | 0.0700 | 25 |
As mentioned above, the only difference in the top 9 is the order of Michigan and Alabama. The computers like Alabama despite Michigan having a bigger edge in the AP than Alabama has in the Coach's. Given that they are only 0.4 points separated, I think this order is arbitrary for a 2 vs 3 decision. Actually Michigan is ahead by a point, but it's still an arbitrary order and will change next week.
Where things get interesting is how the 2 loss teams are ordered. There is consensus about Ohio State being the top of the group, by a wide margin, and then Ole Miss as second also by a wide margin. Baylor is 9th in the BCS and committee, but the computers start to disagree here. They actually have Oklahoma in the 9 spot, but the Polls and the Committee disagree. Still, the BCS ends up putting Oklahoma at 10 despite the Polls having them at 13/11 and the committee at 14. Not sure why the human voters hate Oklahoma since really, none of the remaining 2 loss teams have impressed this season.
Funny that the computers also have Iowa next at 10, though the BCS average and the committee agree with them at 13. I think they're going to give Michigan a game, but I don't know that they win it.
Oregon is also being overvalued, according to the BCS, because I think the committee and the polls still want to give them some credit for beating Ohio State when the computers are saying they haven't maintained over the rest of the season.
Farther down the rankings, we can see Houston being overvalued in the Polls, but the committee agreeing with the computers that they aren't great. Their position at 18 in the BCS is entirely due to the polls, as they are unranked in the computer portion and the committee has them at 21, which still may be too high. We also see Wisconsin unranked everywhere but 13 in the computers, which is enough to put them at 22. A big ten team ranked too low? Shocking!
Very curious to see what will happen this weekend and how the BCS and the CFP Committee will see the field. They've never yet disagreed on the top 4 (except the order), will this be the year? Or is the committee just a front for the old system, since "BCS Holdings" still owns the CFP?
