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Breaking Down Playoff Resumes Ahead of Initial Playoff Rankings

+2 HS
Spartan13's picture
November 1, 2021 at 6:31pm
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With the initial playoff rankings coming out tomorrow there has been a ton of talk about resumes and who should be in the top 4. I have seen so many crazy narratives from ESPN like UK should be in the top 4 and OU is clearly ahead of UC. So I wanted to breakdown who I think the top 7 will be and what the order should be based on the total resume. I won't include Georgia because they are obviously #1.

I will list teams with a + or - sign if I think they are stronger or weaker for their record. For example PSU is 5-3 and UCF is 5-3 but based on the Auburn win and losing with an injured QB I think 5-3 PSU is stronger for their record. 

Alphabetical Order:

  • Alabama(7-1): Wins: Miami(4-4) 44-13, Mercer(FCS) 48-14(-), @Florida(4-4) 31-29, Southern Miss(1-7) 63-14, Ole Miss(6-2) 42-21(+), @MSST(5-3) 49-9(+), Tennessee(4-4) 52-24. Loss @TAM(6-2) 41-38.
    This is a solid resume with dominant wins over average teams and the high point is a 3 TD win over Ole Miss. The games they werent dominant in were the loss to TAM and a very close UF win that is looking worse and worse. The loss is a really good one coming by a field goal to a good team. The MSST win is looking better and better. 
  • Cincinnati(8-0): Wins: MiamiOH(4-4) 49-14(-), Murray State(FCS) 42-7, @Indiana(2-6) 38-24, @Notre Dame(7-1) 24-13, Temple(3-5) 52-3, UCF(5-3) 56-21(-), @Navy(2-6) 27-20, @Tulane(1-7) 31-12.
    The team that inspired me to make this thread, their demise has been greatly exaggerated. The ND win is as good as any other win out there and dominating UCF is a solid 2nd best win. Beating Tulane by 20 is fine when OU beat them by 5. Navy is really the only close game so far. They also beat Indiana by more than MSU. 
  • MSU(8-0): Wins: @NWestern(3-5) 38-21, YSU(FCS) 42-14, @Miami(4-4) 38-17, Nebraska(3-5) 23-20, WKU(4-4) 48-31(-), @Rutgers(4-4) 31-13, @Indiana(2-6) 20-15, Michigan(7-1) 37-33.
    The Michigan win is as good as any other win the group can claim. Similar to Bama they beat abunch of .500ish teams with 1 weak game. Only difference is the WKU, Indiana, and Nebraska games were all pretty close. 
  • OSU(7-1): Wins: @Minnesota(6-2) 45-31(-), Tulsa(3-5) 41-20, Akron(2-6) 59-7, @Rutgers(4-4) 52-13, Maryland(5-3) 66-17, @Indiana(2-5) 54-7, PSU(5-3) 33-24(+). Loss: Oregon(7-1) 35-28
    The loss is as good as it can be with a very early one score game to a playoff team. The best wins include PSU, Minnesota, and Maryland which provide 3 solid wins but no really good win. PSU losing to Illinois and Minnesota losing to BGSU really take a lot of value out of those wins. As much crap as people give them for the Rutgers, Maryland, IU stretch they were truly dominant in those games against teams that arent bad. Indiana played close to UC/MSU and if OSU and UC are going in for the final spot that could be a very important game to look at. 
  • Oklahoma(: Wins: Tulane(1-7) 40-35, WCU(FCS) 76-0, Nebraska(3-6) 23-16, WVU(4-4) 16-13, @KSU(5-3) 37-31, Texas(4-4) 55-48, TCU(3-5) 52-31, @Kansas(1-7) 35-23, TTU(5-4) 52-21
    Absolutely blows my mind people just keep giving OU a pass while they tear UC apart for beating Tulane by 20. This OU team just does not have a good resume. They barely survived the first 2 months of the season and then comfortably beat two teams who fired their coach. Best win is over 4-4 Texas I think? Only saving grace is you can say the QB change helped them and they have a 0 in the L column. If UC beat these same teams by the same margin they wouldnt even be ranked. 
  • Oregon(7-1): Wins: Fresno State(7-2) 31-24(-), @OSU(7-1) 35-28, Stony Brook(FCS) 48-7, Arizona(0-8) 41-19, Cal(3-5) 24-17, @UCLA(5-4) 34-31, Colorado(2-6) 52-29. Loss: Stanford(3-5) 31-24 
    And the examination of the team that will cause the biggest debate. Does head 2 head overcome this terrible resume? Obviously the high point is a road win over 7-1 OSU. Outside of that the best win is a 1 TD win over 7-2 Fresno State and then nothing but bad teams. The loss is also terrible losing to a bad Stanford team. This is just ugly. This week I dont think OSU has the resume to overcome the H2H but down the line it may be hard to keep Oregon ahead if they keep playing at this poor pace.

My Rankings
1.UGA-ez
2.UC-The Notre Dame win looks great, they are undefeated, have dominated almost every team they played outside of Navy, and based on similar opponents they are ahead of both MSU(Indiana) and OU(Tulane). There really isnt an argument against them at #2 at this point.
3.MSU-The Michigan win looks great, they are undefeated, and have very few bad wins. Behind UC because they have had more close games and looked worse against Indiana. 
4.Alabama-I have them here because of how good they have looked. Wins against Ole Miss, MSST, Tennessee, and Miami are more impressive than anything OU has done because of both quality of team and margin of victory.
5.Oregon-They have the single best win in the country by going on the road and beating OSU by a TD. They are obviously behind Bama because outside of that they have looked poor and potentially without a single ranked win OSU doesn't have the resume quite yet to be put ahead of them. 
6.OSU-Similar to Bama they have been dominant and I dont think the gap between them and Bama is big at all. 3 "B" level wins are the high point of the resume but still need a top level win(MSU, Michigan, B1G champion inbound.) Dominance is important and that needs to continue against Nebraska who had a close game against OU.
7.OU-I may be too harsh on them but man their resume is just putrid. They have barely survived to this point against a slate of weak teams. No good wins, no dominant performances, bad teams pushing them to their limit. They have plenty of opportunity with an end of season slate of Baylor, ISU, OKState, and the Big12 championship all in a row. Only reason I could see them being higher is they have looked somewhat better with Caleb Williams at QB. 

 

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