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Why We Still Have a "mythical" National Championship

+6 HS
wjpalumbo's picture
December 4, 2018 at 10:33am
13 Comments

I started a post in the Skull Session yesterday and was pulled away for a phone call and never got to finish my thoughts.  It got me thinking that it may be worth a forum post to get the 11w readers thoughts and if I'm crazy or maybe crazy like a fox.  Here are my thoughts.......

It is amazing that in 2018 we still use antiquated methods to determine a champion either because that's the way it has always been or because the media is worried about losing its grip on their power over college football ($$$$$$$).  No matter the system, AP poll, BCS, or College Football Playoff Committee, the media still has had a significant say in who plays for the national championship.  It is not a coincidence that ESPN, who owns the broadcasting rights to the CFP games, creates a narrative and the committee follows it.  I believe they are still butthurt by the Big Ten starting their own network which is why the Big Ten, the second toughest conference in the country, has been left out of the CFP the last 2 years.  Say what you want but the Big 10 went 7-1 in bowls last year.  Conference strength only seems to matter when it comes to the SEC, also owned by ESPN.   Mike Leach is the only coach who seems to have the courage to say what the rest of the college football fans are thinking.

Let me talk through my reasoning for why I believe that the committee listens more to media spin than actual data.

First, here is the committees main criteria for selecting teams into the College Football Playoff as taken directly from their website:

"The four teams that go to the College Football Playoff are determined by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee. The selection committee chooses the four teams for the playoff based on strength of schedule, head-to-head results against common opponents, championships won and other factors".

Also:

Due to the increased emphasis on strength of schedule, teams have considered playing more challenging opponents during the non-conference portion of their schedules. Some teams have traditionally played three or four "weak" non-conference opponents, but wins against such low-level competition are unlikely to impress the committee. For teams on the cusp of making the playoff four, "I think one of the first things the committee will look at is strength of schedule," said selector Oliver Luck.

 

Strength of schedule.  Ohio State has a slight advantage in most of the rankings I have looked at.  They also played 1 non power 5 team where Oklahoma played 2.  Digging a little deeper, OSU was 3-0 against ranked opponents and 2-0 against top 15 opponents, and 1-0 against top 10 opponents.  OU was 2-1 against ranked opponents, 1-1 against top 15 opponents, and 0-0 against top 10 opponents.  This criteria is clearly in favor of the Buckeyes without question.  

Head to head against common opponents.  OSU and Oklahoma both played and beat TCU.  The margin was OSU by 12 and Oklahoma by 25.  Slight edge to Oklahoma by margin of victory.

Championships.  Both won conference championships.

Now we can go to the "other factors" which gives the committee room to make up what is important to arbitrarily fit their decisions.  This gives them all kinds of room to make their decision on things which seem to matter more than their original "mission statement".  Things like "the eye test" and "national perception" are again the deciding factors.

"Consistency of play" for the Buckeyes which was the number one talking point by the media and the committee.  TOSU had a number of games against inferior opponents that they "struggled".  Maryland (beat Texas from the big 12), Nebraska (won 36-31) Minnesota (won 31-14), Indiana (won 49-26).  Now let's look at Oklahoma where consistency was never questioned.  Army (28-21 at home in OT).  Spare me the "Army is tough to prepare for in one week" garbage.  We beat them 38-7 last year on one week and Duke beat them 31-14 this year.  Texas Tech (51-46), Kansas at home (55-40).  This criteria looks pretty similar to me so it shouldn't have been even discussed to differentiate between Ohio State and Oklahoma.

"Oklahoma's dynamic/historical offense"  Oklahoma ranked 1st in YPG and PPG.  Ohio State ranked 2nd in YPG and 8th in PPG. The homer in me would also add that OSU faced 4 defenses ranked in the top 20 in PPG (put 62 up on Meatchicken  who is ranked 1)  while the best defense Oklahoma faced was TCU (ranked 28).

"Best team vs. most deserving".  Determined by who?  AP poll, ESPN talking heads?  Let's let Desmond Howard choose who the best teams are.  By the way, the "best team" doesn't always win the championship.  Playoffs aren't designed to do that.  They never have and never will.  Best teams determined by ESPN that didn't win the national championship in the past:  2003 Miami, USC 2005,  2006 OSU, 2014 Alabama to name just a few.

"You can't lose to Purdue by 29" criteria.  Admittedly a bad loss but why not come out and say it then.  Because then the committee would be locked into keeping a good team with a bad loss out in the future that they want in.  Truth about the Purdue is that it was a loss, on the road in windy conditions, at night, where OSU shot themselves in the foot with stupid penalties and poor red zone efficiency.  Let's not forget about a team that was playing inspired football because Tyler Trent was in attendance.  (I don't know how you felt but I found it hard to be pissed off after this game putting thing into perspective). If you want to say Purdue dominated then you didn't watch the game.  OSU actually outgained Purdue.  OSU made mistakes and Purdue took advantage of them.  To be totally transparent you would have to come out and say that that bad loss was more important than the beat down of the number 7 team in the country (a team the committee had in the playoffs the week before) in a rivalry game and a 12-1 record in the 2nd toughest conference in College Football.  

In my opinion, the committee found a reason to not put Ohio State in the playoff based not on their own criteria, but on national media perspective. They were praying for OU to win their conference championship game so they could make up a reason to not put OSU in the playoffs.  They did it to cover their asses because they would have serious backlash if OSU went out and laid an egg. Not to mention putting in a team with a coach who covered up domestic violence (ESPN narrative, not mine).  

Bottom line is that nothing has changed from the AP/UPI national championship days.  We have now and always will have a "mythical" national championship in Division 1 college football until teams are selected by actual subjective criteria like winning your conference, won/loss record, or other statistical data to determine a playoff.  

 

 

 

 

 

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