With Ohio State kicking off this afternoon, let's take a look at a host of other college football matchups from around the country we’ll have our eyes on this Saturday.
Nooners
No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 Baylor, 12 p.m. on FOX
No one quite knows what to make of the Sooners through nine games, least of all the College Football Playoff committee.
Oklahoma is one of only four remaining undefeated teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision heading into Week 11 — and one of only two from a Power 5 conference — yet finds itself on the outskirts of the playoff with three games remaining on the regular season schedule. The Sooners are a no-question invite should they run the table through the Big 12 Championship, but it remains stunning to see a team that has received considerable favor from the committee in recent years slotted below even Cincinnati despite boasting an undefeated record.
Lincoln Riley's decision to bench Spencer Rattler in favor of Caleb Williams during the Texas game over a month ago may have effectively saved the Sooners' season. All Williams has done since is throw for over 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns against only one interception. He had also scored a rushing touchdown in each of the three games prior to hardly needing his legs against Texas Tech. In fact, Oklahoma washed the Red Raiders so badly two weeks ago that Spencer Rattler even got in to throw a touchdown pass of his own.
What a throw by Spencer Rattler.
— Sooner Gridiron (@soonergridiron) October 30, 2021
What a catch by Brian Darby. #OUDNA x @SpencerRattler x @swaggyb24 pic.twitter.com/3XMzk5JedD
Despite lacking a loss, the Sooners are still seeking signature wins on their playoff resume. Their lone triumph over a ranked opponent this season has gone on to become nothing more than a comeback victory over a 4-5 Texas team. Oklahoma will have a chance for three impressive wins over the next four weeks, though two will be away from home for a Sooners team that has only played two true road games all season.
Baylor should give Oklahoma their best challenge to date, or certainly at least since Riley made a quarterback switch. The Bears are an extremely formidable ground control football team that feature a top-30 run defense with respect to yards per rush, as well as two halfbacks that have already each carried the ball over 100 times this season for more than 1,600 combined yards.
— Baylor Football (@BUFootball) October 30, 2021
>> @abramsmith_28 #SicEm | #BUncommon pic.twitter.com/Xrwyyg4QgD
The key to a victory for Baylor today will be the performance of quarterback Gerry Bohanon. The Bears' season-long starter had played with great consistency up until roughly the last month of the team's schedule. Bohanon has thrown all five of his interceptions this season in the last three games, and two-thirds of the sacks he has taken in 2021 occurred in Baylor's two losses, including last week on the road at TCU.
Williams will presumably get his usual numbers against the Bears' below-average secondary. But the Sooners continue to trot out one of the worst passing defenses in all of college football, currently allowing the ninth-most yards per game through the air. If the home environment can help Bohanon regain his steady play from earlier in 2021, Baylor could put itself in great position to earn a rematch with Oklahoma State in the conference title game.
H A Z A R D W A R N I N G
C A T E G O R Y 6
There are three noon meetings today that have no business being on television or any sort of streaming device. Yet, labor and resources have been allocated to ensuring that people can watch these six teams struggle to play a competitive football game.
While none of these contests compare to the potential war crime on a top SEC team's schedule next week, here is a brief rundown of arguably the season's most broad slate of terrible football.
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New Mexico State vs. No. 2 Alabama, 12 p.m. on SECN
The independent Aggies have not beaten a single FBS opponent all season and enter Tuscaloosa on a five game losing streak. The Crimson Tide are favored by over 50 points.
Various win probabilities give New Mexico State a .1% to .01% chance to win. As Samford prepares to face Florida over on ESPN+, it appears to be that pitiful non-conference time of year in the SEC once again.
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UConn vs. Clemson, 12 p.m. on ACCN
Not to be outdone by the Buckeyes' other southern nemesis, Dabo Swinney and the Tigers had to go schedule an abysmal independent team for themselves as their Week 11 non-con opponent.
Clemson is favored by over 40 points despite having only beaten one team by a double-digit margin all season. UConn mercifully scored a win over Yale about a month ago to avoid a winless campaign, but the Huskies have hardly recovered much from the 136-0 FBS scoring drought that started their season.
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Maine vs. UMass, 12 p.m. on FloSports
The FCS smells blood in Amherst. UMass has only one win in 2021, a two-touchdown victory over the aforementioned dreadful UConn Huskies. Otherwise, the Minutemen have given up at least 42 points to all FBS opponents this season and most recently lost at home to Rhode Island a week ago.
Maine is currently 4-5, one of the bottom four teams in the Colonial Athletic Association, and was also a 1.5-point favorite on Friday morning. If Maine becomes the second CAA team to beat UMass in as many weeks, it might be time to start a discussion about subdivision relegation.
Primetime
Ohio State and Purdue own the afternoon today. With hardly any other palatable football for Buckeye fans to consider flipping to during the game with the Boilermakers, let's fast forward into primetime and examine two key ranked matchups this evening concerning the ACC Atlantic and SEC West divisional races.
No. 11 Texas A&M vs. No. 15 Ole Miss, 7 p.m. on ESPN
The result of this game will have an enormous influence on the ramifications of the Iron Bowl between Alabama and Auburn at the end of this month. At the moment, the Aggies own their divisional tiebreaker with the Crimson Tide, but find themselves a game behind Alabama in the race for the West Division in the Southeastern Conference due to losses against Arkansas and Mississippi State.
If Texas A&M wins tonight, its only remaining SEC game will be a road trip to Death Valley for what could be the final game of Ed Orgeron's coaching career at LSU. A victory then and a loss for Alabama in the Iron Bowl would send the Aggies to the SEC Championship over the Crimson Tide, effectively ending the latter's playoff bid.
But none of that will matter if Lane Kiffin feels like playing spoiler to Jimbo Fisher.
Ole Miss had their own divisional championship aspirations take a massive hit two weeks ago when the Rebels lost to Auburn on the road. Kiffin and company bounced back last week in a nice victory over a seven-win Liberty team led by former Mississippi head coach Hugh Freeze.
See ya. pic.twitter.com/IYLKVsNN4B
— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) November 6, 2021
A&M quarterback Zach Calzada did not have to do much last week opposite an Auburn offense that failed to reach 230 total yards. However, he will presumably need to throw at a higher volume in this matchup with an Ole Miss team that ranks in the top-25 for passing yards and completion percentage.
Calzada had committed at least one turnover per game over his last six starts heading into the Aggies' bye. His ability to avoid mistakes while maintaining stride with the Rebels’ attack could be the deciding factor in this close contest.
No. 16 N.C. State vs. No. 12 Wake Forest, 7:30 p.m. on ACCN
Wake Forest remains undefeated in the Atlantic Coast Conference despite its shootout loss to North Carolina last weekend. The ACC decided that despite its recent rule that conference members must play at least one Power 5 non-conference opponent (or Notre Dame) per season, teams may still schedule others from across divisions for a "non-conference" game to satisfy the requirement.
Bafflingly, the ACC made a move to bring more visibility to the football programs of all its members, then gave them the out of allowing them to schedule each other instead. Schools have opportunities to play football with stakes and for an audience extending beyond their own region, but instead will choose the more boring and secularly elitist route of playing each other for bragging rights.
In fairness, the Demon Deacons and Tar Heels hardly put on a boring show.
Sam Hartman is a mesh point magician pic.twitter.com/3SGoqw9CHJ
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) November 6, 2021
Wake Forest's surprisingly irrelevant loss to UNC last week keeps Clemson nearly out of its division race. However, there remain a handful of games between Atlantic teams to be played that could swing the top of the standings over the last month. Chief among them will be the Demon Deacons' meeting with the North Carolina State Wolfpack this evening.
The lone blemish on the conference resume of N.C State this year remains a one-point road upset loss to Miami a few weeks ago. Otherwise, N.C. State’s defense has played excellent bend-don't-break football in nearly all of its wins. A victory today would give the Wolfpack an even conference record with Wake Forest, while they would also own the tiebreaker between the two schools.
A loss for the Demon Deacons tonight would light a fire under a Clemson squad hosting them next weekend. A win for the Tigers in that scenario would send them to the ACC Championship in the event N.C. State loses its final two games to Syracuse and UNC.
Saturday Night Fever
A Triple Option for Burning the Midnight Oil
Night owls, rejoice!
For the first time this season, the post-primetime time slot features more than just a couple broadcasts worth watching into the early hours of Sunday. After two straight weeks of Ohio State playing their own games in the same window of other great college football matchups, today's weak afternoon works out very favorably for Buckeye fans.
Between this season's true #Pac12AfterDark debut in the Eleven Warriors Viewing Guide and two key Mountain West games featuring top teams in the conference, there is no shortage of excitement this evening.
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Washington State vs. No. 3 Oregon, 10:30 p.m. on ESPN
The Ducks may be 14-point favorites, but they have not beaten a team with a winning record by more than a touchdown this season. Five of Oregon's nine games have been decided by seven points or less, and its most recent win was by 10 points over a Washington team last week that Michigan beat by three touchdowns in September.
Wazzu does not have a signature win yet in 2021, but it has played several tough games against quality teams. The Cougars lost to Utah, Utah State, and BYU; but did so by only 16 total points, and those three teams from the Beehive State have a combined record of 19-7 through the first 10 weeks of the season. Fresh off Jake Dickert's first win as interim head coach last week, Washington State appears headed in about as positive a direction as the team could have hoped following Nick Rolovich's dismissal last month.
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Nevada vs. No. 22 San Diego State, 10:30 p.m. on CBSSN
After Fresno State took down each of these schools on back-to-back weeks, this meeting suddenly has even more on the line in the Mountain West race than previously anticipated. The winner of this game will move into first place for the West Division, but the loser will drop to third below the Bulldogs given their tiebreaker over each competing team.
In San Diego State's lone loss this season, Fresno State became the only team to score more than three touchdowns on the Aztecs' vaunted defense. Nevada quarterback Carson Strong is an NFL draft prospect that continues to effectively lead the Wolfpack passing attack by distributing the ball evenly all over the field. Strong is one completion away to starting running back Toa Taua from producing the sixth Nevada player this season to catch 30 or more passes.
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Utah State vs. San Jose State, 10:30 p.m. on FS1
W I L D C A R D of the W E E K
On the other side of the Mountain West conference — aptly named, the Mountain Division — the previously alluded to Aggies carry a four game winning streak into Week 11 with a one-game lead over Boise State. Utah State's two most impressive wins this season came in the first three games of their schedule (at WSU and at Air Force), so the road matchup with San Jose State tonight figures to be competitive.
Much like Washington State, the Spartans have had some tough recent losses of their own against quality competition. San Jose State fell to Brady Hoke's Aztecs by merely six points in October prior to coming up just short against Nevada in Reno last week after one-time Boilermaker destroyer Brandon Talton hit a game-winning field goal with three seconds left.BRANDON TALTON. YES.#BattleBorn // #NevadaGrit pic.twitter.com/0qVnoX7muO
— Nevada Football (@NevadaFootball) November 7, 2021
A great football coach once said, “nothing good happens after 10 o'clock.” But a midnight in the mountains never hurt anybody not wearing a sweater vest.
On the Radar for Next Week
- Buckeyes: No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 4 Ohio State, 12 p.m. on ABC
- TBD: SMU vs. No. 5 Cincinnati, TBD on ABC Networks
- Primetime/SNF: No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 24 Utah, TBD on ABC Networks / Fox
