Bovada released their 2017 college football win totals recently, which means we're that much closer to the start of the season.
In the spirit of anxiously awaiting for kickoff in August, we decided to take a look at how each Big Ten team will finish relative to Bovada's projected win total.
Ohio State — 10.5
Taking the over on a win total as high as 10.5 seems unsafe, but think about it this way: by betting the under, you're essentially betting on Urban Meyer having his worst season since he's been at Ohio State. In his five seasons in Columbus, Meyer has never won fewer than 10 games during the regular season, and has twice finished a perfect 12-0.
The way I see it, chances are slim that will change this year. Sure, the Buckeyes had another NFL exodus, but they lost nowhere near the firepower they did after the 2015 season when they had nine players taken in the first two rounds of the draft, and even after that, Ohio State still lost just one game during the regular season.
The Buckeyes return a strong core of veteran players including the most experienced quarterback in college football, their entire defensive line which looks to be the nation's best, as well as 4/5ths of their offensive line.
There are three high-risk games on Ohio State's schedule: home against Oklahoma and Penn State and an away game against Michigan. Look for the Buckeyes to at least win two of those three and avoid an upset elsewhere in the schedule to finish with 11 wins or more.
Decision: Over 10.5
Penn State — 9.5
Penn State has two real challenges in 2017: Ohio State and Michigan.
When they take on Ohio State they'll be facing a revenge-seeking, veteran-laden squad in Ohio Stadium — good luck there.
That Michigan matchup, however, is very winnable, if not favorable. The Nittany Lions face a Michigan team that just lost half its roster to graduation in Beaver Stadium right after an off week. Four months in advance of the game, I like Penn State in that one.
Outside of those two games, the biggest matchups of the year are against Pitt and Nebraska, but both are at home and I don't see them losing either of those, much less both.
I think Penn State has another season of at least 10 wins.
Decision: Over 9.5
Wisconsin — 9.5
Last season, Wisconsin faced an absolutely brutal schedule that featured three top-10 matchups against LSU, Ohio State and Michigan and the Badgers somehow finished the season with 10 wins and a Big Ten West title.
Compared to last season's slate, 2017 looks like a cake walk for Wisconsin. The Badgers have no out of conference opponent comparable to LSU, do not play Ohio State or Penn State, and take on a young Michigan team at home.
Wisconsin heads into this much lighter schedule with a much more veteran lineup. The Badgers return 15 starters in 2017, including quarterback Alex Hornibrook and Jazz Peavy, who put up huge numbers against the Buckeyes in 2016.
Also, they play in the Big Ten West. Which, yeah.
Wisconsin could honestly go undefeated during the regular season, but at the very least, they'll win more than nine games. This is probably my most confident pick on this list.
Decision: Over 9.5
Michigan — 9
Michigan's roster is about as depleted as it gets. The Wolverines lost 43 seniors to graduation last year. Of the team's 23 starters on offense, defense and special teams, 17 graduated and Jabrill Peppers left early for the NFL.
There are three big games on Michigan's slate for the 2017 season: Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin. If the Wolverines lose all three of those games, which is not unlikely, it will be a push.
Given all that the Wolverines lost during the offseason, I think it's a safer bet to pick Michigan to lose the three big games plus one hiccup elsewhere than it is to pick the Wolverines to win one of the three big games and win all the remaining games.
Michigan won't be terrible in 2017, but I wouldn't pick them to win 10 games.
Decision: Under 9
Nebraska — 7.5
Nebraska won nine games last year and was at one point a top-10 team. Don't expect a repeat performance in 2017.
The Huskers are looking at three sure losses against Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin, which means they would need to win 8 of their next 9. Though some of those are pretty much gimmes (I'm looking at you, Purdue, Illinois and Arkansas State), I'm not sold that Nebraska wins three of four against Oregon, Northwestern, Minnesota or Iowa.
Even though the Huskers play in the Big Ten West, Nebraska still has a new quarterback and a new defense. I'm just not seeing eight wins this year.
Decision: Under 7.5
Northwestern — 7
The middling Big Ten West teams are so difficult to predict because I fully expect them to beat each other and end up with similar records.
That said, I think I would take Northwestern to win eight games. Outside of Penn State and Wisconsin, every game on the Wildcats' schedule is winnable. I think they'll come out of the season with eight wins.
Decision: Over 7
Michigan State — 6.5
The Spartans didn't make a bowl game last year and with the current state of the program, it's hard to be optimistic about their chances in 2017.
Michigan State's schedule doesn't do it any favors, either. The Spartans face Notre Dame, Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State; those are four losses. To finish with seven wins, the Spartans would need to win seven of the remaining eight games, which I just do not see.
I think 2017 will be a rough year for Michigan State. If the Spartans make a bowl game, it will be barely.
Decision: Under 6.5
Iowa — 6.5
I'm going to be honest, I have no idea what to do with this one. The middle of the Big Ten west could shake out in pretty much any way and I wouldn't be surprised.
Gun to my head, I'd say Iowa squeaks out seven wins. There are four gimme games against Wyoming, North Texas, Illinois and Purdue. After those, there are really six winnable games. Winning half of those isn't too much to ask.
Although, all but one of those six games are on the road, so if the Hawkeyes lost four or five of those six, I wouldn't really be shocked.
Still, I'll ride with the fighting Kirk Ferentz's
Decision: Over 6.5
Indiana — 6
Indiana's schedule pretty much breaks down into games it will not win, and games it could possibly win if it tried its best.
The Hoosiers are looking at losses to Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin. The remaining games are toss ups. If Indiana can win six of those eight, the Hoosiers would match this win total, if they win seven, they'd cover.
I'm not convinced Indiana, without Kevin Wilson and now under a first-year head coach, can win 87.5 percent of its winnable games. I'm much more confident there will be a few hiccups along the way.
Decision: Under 6
*** Win totals were not provided for Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota or Purdue
Bonus Non-Conference Speed Round!
I'm going to give my five favorite picks outside of the Big Ten, with a very short rational behind the pick.
Ready, go.
- Alabama (Over 10.5) — Do you think Alabama will be in the college football playoff? Me too.
- Georgia (Under 8) — There are potentially six losses on Georgia's schedule beginning with the opening game against our friends at Appalachian State. There's no way Georgia gets to nine wins.
- North Carolina (Under 7) — North Carolina won just eight games last season with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft and it lost almost its entire offense after the season. Seven wins isn't happening.
- Tennessee (Under 7.5) — The Vols managed eight wins last year and barely, barely won each one of them without having to play the league's best teams. Now, they have a loaded schedule.
- Washington (Over 9.5) — Washington's only loss last year was to USC — the Huskies don't play USC this year.
