Poll Watch: Ohio State's Lead at No. 1 Grows During Bye

Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.

Ohio State Again Adds to its Lead at No. 1

Ohio State did well on its bye, notwithstanding J.T. Barrett's OVI charge. The near shutout of Rutgers ballooned Ohio State's lead at no. 1 from 12 points to 49 points last week. This week, Ohio State's lead grew to 57 points over no. 2 Baylor despite not playing a game.

However, Ohio State's position changed on only two ballots from last week to this week. Ross Dellenger had Ohio State at no. 6 last week and no. 5 this week. Jon Wilner, the avante-garde performance artist among the AP voters, slid Ohio State down two spots to no. 8 this week. Wilner previously had Ohio State at no. 6 last week and docked the Buckeyes two spots on his ballot for an unimpressive performance against the bye.

Put another way, Ohio State's lead at no. 1 grew eight points largely as a function of Baylor losing some points across the voter data. Clemson's win at NC State gave the Tigers four more points from last week. Texas Christian, which dispatched West Virginia in impressive fashion on Thursday, gained nine points. 

While it is not a complete observation to make (i.e. it's technically fallacious for sake of convenience), Ohio State's lead at no. 1 grew in large part because Clemson and Texas Christian took some of Baylor's spots on the ballot this week. Baylor also had a bye this week before this Thursday's game at Kansas State.

Let's Check On Our Friend Jon Wilner

Long-time readers of this feature know I follow Jon Wilner's ballots closely. Namely, no other voter in the AP is so at odds with what emerges as the AP consensus than that San Jose Mercury News writer. His ballot is not meaningfully different this week compared to his ballot last week, but it is equally at odds with the rest of the AP as it was last week.

He again is responsible for one-loss Alabama's only no. 1 vote. Alabama may vindicate that in part on Saturday, but it's curious now.

Wilner moved Stanford up two spots for the narrow win in Pullman. I'm too lazy to check if he's the only voter to move up Stanford from last week's ballot, but that stands out.

Wilner moved Notre Dame up one spot from his ballot last week and moved Temple up seven spots from his ballot last week.

He is also conspicuously pessimistic about the class of the Big XII. He has no. 2 Baylor at no. 9, no. 6 Texas Christian at no. 14, and no. 12 Oklahoma State at no. 18. In each case, Wilner is the lowest vote for these three Big XII teams and sometimes by a large margin. For example, the next lowest vote for Texas Christian on any ballot is no. 7, which appears on three ballots (John Clay, Josh Kendall, and Brett McMurphy).

Wilner is also responsible for Ohio State's only move down a ballot this week. He had Ohio State at no. 6 this week and no. 8 this week.

When I do tweet about my first glimpse into the voter data, the reactions typically entail revoking Wilner's right to a ballot. I don't think that's right. There's no reason why Wilner should be compelled to hivemind or groupthink when he casts his ballot. No ballot he casts, no matter how strange it is, should require the Associated Press rescinding his right to cast a ballot.

That said, we should be free to note that his ballots are, weekly, the most bizarre ballots any AP voter casts. I don't know if "bizarre" is good or bad, but it's definitely, well, bizarre.

In other words, you do you, Wilner. Keep working on your art.

A Rather Dull Week in the AP

This week's AP Poll is rather dull, all things considered. Most of the top teams in the country that could lose and shake up the poll were on a bye. No. 1 Ohio State, no. 2 Baylor, no. 4 LSU, no. 5 Michigan State, and no. 6 Alabama did not play in Week 9 and thus, did not move in the rankings.

The only movements were a flip at no. 8 and no. 9. On average, voters punished Stanford for an escape in Pullman and rewarded Notre Dame for defeating previously unbeaten Temple. No. 15 and no. 16 switched positions as Memphis leapfrogged Michigan after Michigan narrowly escaped with the Little Brown Jug. 

There's also some minor shuffling in the twenties. UNC effectively took Pittsburgh's spot. UCLA moved up two spots. Temple moved down two spots, though voters were mostly forgiving of the Owls' four-point loss to Notre Dame. Texas A&M creeped into the poll at no. 25. It was previously no. 26 last week while now-no. 24 Mississippi State filled out the rankings this week.

All told, the last AP Poll before the Playoff Committee debuts its poll offered no real talking points. The talking points entail what may happen next week.

For one, Ohio State may need a convincing demolition of Minnesota without J.T. Barrett if it wants to keep its no. 1 spot in the AP. No. 3 Clemson hosts three-time defending ACC champion Florida State in a game in which the Tigers will be favored. Florida State has injury issues around Everett Golson and Dalvin Cook. Should Clemson blow the doors off the Seminoles, Clemson might make a run at no. 1.

Likewise, no. 4 LSU visits no. 7 Alabama. LSU is going to command a lot of no. 1 votes should it beat the Tide in Tuscaloosa. Likewise, Jon Wilner may have some company with his no. 1 selection if Alabama beats LSU for the fifth straight time.

Other Peculiar Observations

• Tennessee is 4-4 this year and, for some reason, appeared at no. 24 on Josh Kendall's ballot.
• Iowa appears as high as no. 7 on four ballots. Tom Murphy, though, has Iowa at no. 14.
• Ed Johnson has no. 6 Michigan State at no. 10 on his ballot.
• Chadd Cripe has Memphis at no. 7, the highest vote for the Tigers.
• Houston appears ranked over Michigan on 15 of 60 ballots. Not bad for November in former Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman's first year with the Cougars.