Revisiting Bold (Bad) Predictions Made Ahead of the 2023 Ohio State Football Season

By Chris Lauderback on January 7, 2024 at 10:10 am
Ryan Day
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch-USA TODAY NETWORK
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You'd think I'd learn at some point.

For most of you who visit the site regularly, you know I crank out an annual Season Preview column where I make bold predictions on what lies ahead for Ohio State's football season. 

I do take pride in not listing five milquetoast predictions, opting instead to go for what should be much tougher putts, but yeah, if I stink on those bold projections it's still not great. 

Looking back on my hilariously bad 2023 predictions, Chris Rock would surely say Pootie done did it again!

I promise I wasn't huffing paint back in August when I made these and while it would be more beneficial to my ego if I didn't revisit the column, that's just not how it works. Let's review how these gems turned out. 

PREDICTION: DEFENSE RANKS TOP 10 NATIONALLY IN LIMITING BIG PLAYS OF 40+ YARDS

Things started off wonderfully at least. After ranking No. 115 out of 131 FBS teams in 2022, allowing 18 plays from scrimmage of at least 40 yards, I called for Jim Knowles' defense to make a major leap and rank in the top-10 in giving up such plays in 2023. 

I figured Knowles would make it a focus within his game planning / play calling and I also assumed defenders would be much more comfortable in the second year of Knowles' scheme. 

As it turned out, Knowles was dead set on taking away big gainers even if that meant his defense wasn't all that aggressive and the end result was Ohio State giving up just two scrimmage plays of 40+ yards, good for the No. 1 spot in the country.

Penn State ranked No. 2 and they allowed twice as many 40+ yard plays as the Buckeyes. 

The first 40+ yard play the Buckeyes surrendered was a bit fluky as Rutgers tailback Kyle Monangai ran for 45 yards on a tricky 4th-and-1 play during what became a 35-16 Ohio State victory. 

The second of at least 40 yards occurred in the Cotton Bowl as Marquis Johnson hauled in a 50 yard pass to the OSU 15 yard line in what became the game-deciding touchdown drive in an eventual 14-3 Missouri win. 

That's it. That's the list of plays Ohio State's defense allowed over 40 yards this season. Like I said however, as important as it was for the Buckeyes to chill out on giving up huge plays, the often conservative approach, laser focused on eliminating the biggies likely had some impact on their ability to create chaos... 

PREDICTION: DEFENSIVE LINE STEPS UP - OHIO STATE RANKS TOP 10 NATIONALLY IN SACKS PER GAME

With Ohio State focused on big play elimination therefore not blitzing a ton, plus guys simply not creating as much havoc one-on-one as I thought was possible, the defense cranked out a mere 28 sacks in 13 games, good for 2.15 per contest and a national ranking of 66th. So yeah, not quite top-10, as predicted. 

I did also predict the defensive line would account for at least 80% of the team's sacks and for it's part, the front four accounted for 82%, racking up 23 of the team's 28.

That 82% clip was the second-best mark of the Larry Johnson era trailing only the 2021 defensive line which equated for 85% of the team's sacks. 

Still, I expected much more from the front four. Jack Sawyer didn't create much havoc for the first half of the season but really came on in the second half of the slate and finished with a team-high 6.5 sacks in 605 snaps. I think everyone including JT Tuimoloau himself expected more than the 5.0 sacks he tallied in 673 snaps and I'm still stunned Mike Hall Jr. had just 1.5 in 419 snaps. 

The most impressive season by an OSU defensive lineman belonged to tackle Tyleik Williams and he added three sacks in 642 snaps. Fellow interior lineman Ty Hamilton was the only other member of the front four to record at least two sacks (2.0). 

With Ohio State not really bringing a ton of extra pressure, the back seven added just five total sacks paced by two each from Sonny Styles and Jordan Hancock. 

Would you believe Ohio State linebackers combined for exactly one sack (Tommy Eichenberg) in 1,724 snaps? I had to triple-check that again even knowing "blitz' was often a dirty word in 2023. 

PREDICTION: TREVEYON HENDERSON'S BOUNCEBACK SEASON MAKES OSU A TOP 10 RUSHING ATTACK

Did I say "top 10 rushing attack"? I meant to say top 90. 

I erroneously expected the starting offensive line to come together and for the most part control the line of scrimmage in 2023 and that was indeed wishful thinking. Knowing Ryan Day would be breaking in a new starting quarterback, I figured the line had the ability to be productive and Day would lean on the run more heavily than in season's past especially as I expected TreVeyon Henderson to bounce back in a huge way from an injury marred 2022 campaign. 

For his part, Henderson, who I said would make a run at 6.5 yards per carry and 95 rushing yards per game, pretty much did that averaging 92.6 yards per game on 5.9 per try but he missed three games which did the run game zero favors. 

It also didn't help McCord was an absolute statue with extremely limited pocket awareness and the idea of bringing in backup Devin Brown to add a run threat in the red zone fizzled out as he couldn't stay healthy even in spot duty. 

All those factors saw Ohio State run the ball for just 138.9 yards per game on an insane 4.12 yards per carry. You have to go back to 2003 to find a worse rush yards per game Buckeye squad (126.1) and to 2004 for a worse yards per carry team (3.3!). Ah those days featuring Lydell Ross, Craig Krenzel and Maurice Hall in the run game were fun times. 

Anyway, Henderson lived up to my projection but the offensive line and overall run game, not even close. 

PREDICTION: TRUE FRESHMAN CARNELL TATE RECORDS 500 RECEIVING YARDS, IS THIRD LEADING RECEIVER

I know this one was a long shot and frankly, I was probably a year too early in predicting greatness for a true freshman receiver because you can bet I'll be back in August making a lofty prediction on what Jeremiah Smith is going to do in his own Year One next fall. 

Fact is, Carnell Tate was actually very good in his Year One when you consider OSU history. In 292 snaps, Tate racked up 18 catches for 264 yards with a touchdown. Both those totals stand as the fourth-most school history behind Cris Carter, David Boston and Garrett Wilson. 

The 292 snaps were the fourth-most among Buckeye receivers this season but I thought there was a chance he might pass Julian Fleming on the depth chart by midseason and blossom late. 

He did turn in a 3-catch, 79-yard performance featuring a 55-yard snag down the seam at Purdue as the Buckeyes played the first of three games without Emeka Egbuka. 

Early in the year, he showed great field awareness and concentration hauling in a perfect 28-yard touchdown toss from Brown against Western Kentucky. 

As for the prediction however, his 18 catches ranked No. 6 on the squad and the 264 yards slotted fifth, six yards behind Fleming who played 260 more snaps. 

Gotta say, I also didn't foresee tight end Cade Stover taking up 41 catches and 576 yards worth of passing game production. 

PREDICTION: OHIO STATE GETS REVENGE AGAINST GEORGIA, CAPTURES THE NATIONAL TITLE 

Not much to say here. I was bullish on the defense taking a huge step forward which happened but the offensive line and overall run game struggles were a surprise. I didn't discuss it in the article much but I figured McCord or Brown would at least be serviceable and that a more balanced offense could even be a good thing. 

And as much as most fans are straight gloom and doom right now, a flawed offensive team (and special teams) still had a shot to beat a damn good Michigan team late, on the road before falling by six. A couple calls go Ohio State's way or the final possession works out differently and the Buckeyes at least make the CFP. 

Whatever, they lost so the prediction is obviously the final rotten cherry on top. Maybe next year.  

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