If the College Football Playoffs started Wednesday night, No. 6 Ohio State would be on the outside looking in. (I guess it's a good thing the playoffs don't start tonight, right?)
And though OSU suffered a loss at Penn State and looked disjointed in a four-point win over Northwestern, all of the Buckeyes' season goals are still achievable. At this point, it's just a matter how how likely those goals are.
It's the kind of debate that fills bars across America. Some people like to follow their gut. Others like to crunch the data.
For the latter crowd, enter FiveThirtyEight, ESPN's poll analysis–sports hybrid led by Nate Silver. According to its latest forecast, the Buckeyes only hold a 7 percent chance of taking home the national title. For comparison's sake, Alabama leads with 31 percent and Michigan, No. 3 on the list, is at 20 percent.
In better news, FiveThirtyEight gives Ohio State a 25 percent chance to win the Big Ten and a 30% to make the playoff.
Obviously a long way to go before people in fancy suits hand out the trophies, but here's where the Top 10 currently stands:
| SCHOOL | CONF % | PLAYOFF % | CHAMp % | WIN OUT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALABAMA | 58 | 76 | 31 | 38 |
| CLEMSON | 72 | 74 | 16 | 53 |
| MICHIGAN | 53 | 60 | 20 | 35 |
| WASHINGTON | 46 | 47 | 9 | 25 |
| OHIO STATE | 25 | 30 | 7 | 25 |
| LOUISVILLE | 2 | 25 | 5 | 64 |
| TEXAS A&M | 3 | 20 | 4 | 30 |
| AUBURN | 11 | 11 | 2 | 16 |
| WISCONSIN | 13 | 11 | 1 | 13 |
| OKLAHOMA | 56 | 7 | < 1 | 22 |
Ohio State's Saturday night opponent, No. 10 (in the CFP) Nebraska, checks in at No. 17 in FiveThirtyEight's model.
The Cornhuskers have just a six percent chance to win the Big Ten title, two percent chance to make the playoffs, and less than one percent chance to win the 2016 title.
Nebraska at Ohio State kicks off Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
