It's February, which means it's time for that most gut-churning activity of the season: fretting about Ohio State's spot on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Let's be clear: Ohio State is not going to miss the NCAA Tournament. On Bracket Matrix, an aggregation of 84 mock brackets across the internet, the Buckeyes appear on all 84 brackets. They're in the tournament. Phew.
Instead, fans are concerned about seeding. And there, the worriers have a valid point.
Bracket seeding is more difficult than one might think. Teams rise and fall all the time, and the NCAA Tournament selection committee relies on a variety of measurements to gauge teams, both modern and antiquated.
The committee's selection criteria vary over time, but there's an easy metric to bridge the gap between traditionalists and statheads: the Easy Bubble Solver (EBS). Simply add a team's Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) rank to its KenPom rank, and choose the at-large teams with the lowest combined rankings.
As of Saturday, Ohio State's EBS is 48, good for 23rd. In bracket terms, that would make the Buckeyes a 6 seed; unfortunately, their seed will drop after the 59-56 loss to Michigan State on Saturday.
| Rank | Team | RPI Rank | Kenpom Rank | EBS Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Oklahoma State | 20 | 24 | 44 |
| 21 | Notre Dame | 28 | 18 | 46 |
| 22 | SMU | 24 | 22 | 46 |
| 23 | Ohio State | 35 | 13 | 48 |
| 24 | Arkansas | 23 | 26 | 49 |
| 25 | Texas | 31 | 19 | 50 |
| 26 | Maryland | 14 | 40 | 54 |
Computer rankings won't ding Ohio State for losing, since the Spartans are well-regarded and the Buckeyes were on the road. To human eyes, though, it's a continuation of Ohio State's failure to beat good teams.
Ohio State fares better in formulas that take into account tempo and margin of victory; in one well-regarded predictive system, the LRMC ratings, the Buckeyes are slated 10th. Even so, beating up bad teams is not enough to paper over the team's deficiencies.
ESPN.com has a feature called Bubble Watch, which tracks teams in the NCAA Tournament conversion. Here's what analyst Eamonn Brennan had to say about Ohio State, which had "work to do":
After a road win at Rutgers and that home demolition of Penn State, there's little more to report on Ohio State that we haven't mentioned before. The Buckeyes' nonconference schedule was weak, and three of their four top-50 wins (Indiana, Illinois, Maryland) all came at Value City Arena. That may hurt them in the seeding process, but it is unlikely to jeopardize their selection.
Brennan is right about Ohio State's road resume: Ohio State is 3-5 on the road this season, with its top road win being at Minnesota. The Gophers are better than advertised, but that win won't impress anyone on the selection committee. A win at Michigan State might have, but the Buckeyes couldn't get the job done.
In most years, Ohio State's weak nonconference schedule would be offset by the Big Ten's depth. But this is a down year for the Big Ten, which is the fifth- or sixth-best conference in the country. The Buckeyes have no bad losses, but their lack of quality wins (2-6 against the RPI Top 50) will instead hurt their seeding.
As things stood before the Michigan State game, Ohio State was a 7-seed. That was where ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi put the Buckeyes, as did CBSSports.com's Jerry Palm. Lunardi put the Buckeyes against Stanford, while Palm put the Buckeyes against Xavier.
Losing to Michigan State likely dropped the Buckeyes by a seed line or two. The good news is that the next four games should be easy for a tournament team: at Michigan, vs. Nebraska, vs. Purdue, at Penn State. Win those, and Ohio State is 23-7 (12-5 in the Big Ten) and staring down Wisconsin on Senior Day.
In many ways, Ohio State has it better than other bubble schools. It has a bankable player, D'Angelo Russell, whose skills put Ohio State in the national conversation more than a school like SMU. The Buckeyes get to play on ESPN and CBS all the time, and they has a reputation for success. With all those attributes, it can make a late run to improve its seeding.
Ohio State's plan is simple: win all the games it should, ambush Wisconsin or make a Big Ten Tournament run, and ride a 4-5-6-7 seed to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Now it's up to the Buckeyes to execute that plan.
