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Preview: #6 Ohio State at #1 Southern Cal

To the victor, the spoils, right?
Ohio State Buckeyes #2 Ohio State 2-0, 0-0 Big Ten Roster | Schedule 8:00 PM ET - ABC —— The Coliseum Los Angeles, CA Southern Cal Trojans #3 Southern Cal 1-0, 0-0 Pac-10 Roster | Schedule

The wait is finally over. After months of anticipation, the Buckeyes will get their second prime chance at redemption in 8 months when they invade the Coliseum to take on USC. And what a shot it is. The Trojans have been nothing short of dominant this decade and are virtually unbeatable at home.

The Buckeyes, thought to be Tressel's best team in Columbus are absolutely loaded with NFL talent to match the Trojans at nearly every position. And then, in the opener against a hapless Youngstown State, the unthinkable happened.

Now, instead of a matchup of two elite teams, slugging it out in front of a national television audience, the Buckeyes enter the game as double-digit dogs and even the most partisan amongst the faithful is having serious doubts. There's a large contingent now predicting a USC blowout -- something that would have been completely unimaginable just a year and a half ago. But that's where a couple of lopsided MNC losses will leave you.

Wells' status is still very much up in the air and seemed to change with the wind this week. If he is able to go, even at reduced strength, the Buckeyes will have to play an incredible game to hand the Trojans a rare defeat at home. If he's not able to go, the rest of the team must play the game of their lives.

Opponent

You've probably been boning-up on the Trojans since, oh, January 8th or so, so we won't bore you too much with further minutia. You're well aware that they have the scariest defensive player in college football, a stable of great running backs including potentially the next Reggie Bush and a safety that is built like a lineman.

Their quarterback, once the top prep prospect in the land, is hitting his groove after playing in only a handful of games last season and their coach simply does not lose big games.

The other players? They're not too shabby either. Year-in and year-out, the Trojans capitalize on their geography and coach Pete Carroll's Facebook page to haul in just about anyone they want. Even Ohio kids are not safe from his clutches -- Fred Davis, USC's leading receiver last season (and thankfully now playing in the NFL), hails from Toledo.

It's pretty cliche to say that a team's second stringers could start just about anywhere else in the country, but USC is one of the few schools where that's actually true.

So, are they invincible? Close, but not quite. The offensive line is breaking in four new starters and just like any other quarterback, Sanchez is prone to make mistakes when he's pressured. The line did in fact have trouble picking up blitz packages during fall camp, so if there is a weakness on offense, it's the front five.

On defense, the holes and weaknesses are even fewer, though Brian Cushing and Rey Maualuga, two Trojan linebackers vying for All-American honors are both playing with a cast. Sure it can be a club at times, but casts also hinder your ability to clutch and make tackles. Otherwise, everyone would be wearing casts.

Additionally, elite running quarterbacks like Locker, Dixon and Vince Young have given USC fits the last few years and the Buckeyes do happen to have an exceptionally gifted running quarterback. Trojan defensive tackle Fili Moala has already seen glimpses of Vince in Pryor, so if you're on the ledge over the status of Beanie, that should be worth a step or two back at the very least.

NOTES: Wide receiver Vidal Hazelon is still recovering from an ankle injury he suffered during the 2nd half of the Virginia game and may not play... Gameday will be held in Los Angeles this weekend and ABC's #1 crew of Musberger, Herbstreit, Lisa Salters and Erin Andrews will be covering the game.

Buckeye Breakdown

So what must Ohio State do to win the game. For starters, they can dial it up significantly on defense. There's been a steady stream of questions regarding Heacock's defensive strategy ever since the Florida deacle two years ago, but if he must be wiling to turn the talent loose and let them do what they're at Ohio State to do -- make plays.

The defensive line was one of the few bright spots in the victory over Ohio last weekend and if it weren't for Boo Jackson's amazingly magic feed, they may have doubled their sack total. This must continue against USC. Sure, the line will be of better quality, but it's still a green line and Lawrence Wilson, Heyward and Gibson must apply constant pressure to Sanchez, forcing him into bad decisions. It was pointed out that if you take away the shellacking of Notre Dame last season, his numbers begin to look downright pedestrian. He lit the Cavaliers up in week one, but he didn't see the type of pressure that he'll see on Saturday.

If Beanis is able to go, even if only at 75%, that will be a huge boost to the team. His 75% is better than 99% of other running backs' 100% and his leadership cannot be measured. He'll also be used to chew up first downs and keep the ball out of the hands of the USC offense, which can score in bunches -- even against elite defenses.

Hartline and Robiskie must do a better job of getting open and when thrown to, must hold on to the ball. It seems like the Minnesota game last season was the last time Robo turned in a highlight reel snare and he's due. If the starters aren't getting the job done and are unable to get open in space, Tressel can't be afraid to go to Posey, Washington, Thomas and some of the other young burners. I do imagine we'll see several plays from the 5-wide set, something we didn't see at all last weekend.

The defensive secondary will be bolstered by the return of Washington and O'Neal, though Chekwa and Jermale Hines have played well enough in the first two games to prevent those two from jumping right back into the fray and getting serious minutes. Still, the depth will help, especially considering the number of gazelles the Trojans can put on the field for a single play.

I am somewhat worried about McKnight catching balls out of the backfield, but I imagine Tressel and Heacock have the same fear and have put things into place to address that threat.

After the embarrassing losses in each of the last two MNC games, this team needs this win perhaps more so than any other team in America. We think they'll come out on fire and match up well against USC's talent, but the x-factor is obviously Beanie. If he's unable to go or can only contribute on a couple of plays, the odds don't favor the Buckeyes -- thought it certainly won't be the blowout some are forecasting.


PREDICTION: USC 17, OSU 13*

* This prediction almost lead to the break-up of this blog. Naturally, we all think the Buckeyes can win the game, but the bottom line is that given the circumstances surrounding Wells, we're not as certain of a victory as we'd like to be. Even heading into the LSU game last year, we thought the Buckeyes would pull though, but perhaps because of that game and the one the year before, our expectations are dampened a bit.

A Look Back at the 1975 Rose Bowl

With the emotional rollercoaster that is the status of Beanie Wells taking its toll on Buckeye fans everywhere, we thought we'd throw out a diversion and have asked resident 11W historian Joe Fox to take a look back at a past Ohio State-Southern Cal matchup. Here's his take on the 1975 Rose Bowl.

Ohio State and Southern Cal have frequently met with national title implications on the line, but the 1975 Rose Bowl stands out as one of the two close losses that cost Ohio State a national championship. Let’s roll back the clock to January 1, 1975: Wheel of Fortune made its television debut, the Big Red Machine rolled, the Steelers began their reign of supremacy, and the champions of the Big Ten and Pac-8 met in Pasadena before a crowd of 106,721. Each team harbored hopes for a national title.

Overview

The 1975 Rose Bowl was the third consecutive meeting between Ohio State and USC in Pasadena. The 1973 game was a 42-17 blowout for USC, but Ohio State completely turned the tables in 1974, and crushed the Trojans 42-21. The 1975 meeting would be the rubber match. If Notre Dame could pull off an upset of Alabama in the Orange Bowl, the winner of the 1975 Rose Bowl stood to be in prime position to win at least a share of the national championship.

USC

Coach John McKay’s Trojans were deep, talented and featured a roster with five two-time All-Americans, including eventual three-time All-American and College Hall of Fame linebacker Richard Woods. Senior quarterback Pat Haden directed the offense, but junior running back Anthony Davis was the workhorse, and rushed for 1,421 yards – an impressive tally good enough to earn Davis second place in the Heisman Trophy vote.

The Trojans were expected to be a national title contender in 1974, but started the year with a stunning 22-7 loss to Arkansas. USC then rolled to an 8-0-1 record in their next nine games, including a come-from-behind 55-24 whipping of Notre Dame. The Trojans entered the 1975 Rose Bowl ranked fourth in the country.

Ohio State

Woody Hayes’ Buckeyes came to Pasadena in 1975 for their ninth visit to the Rose Bowl, and fifth appearance against USC. Ohio State had compiled a 10-1 record in 1974, the only loss being a bizarre 16-13 loss to Michigan State in November. The 1974 season ended with a 12-10 victory over Michigan in Columbus, and Ohio State’s third consecutive Big Ten championship.

The Buckeyes’ roster featured 13 players who would be chosen in the 1975 NFL draft, including three first-round selections (defensive back Neal Colzie and offensive linemen Doug France and Kurt Shumacher). Junior running back Archie Griffin ran for 1,695 yards in 1974, sharing backfield duties with Pete Johnson, and became just the second junior to win the Heisman Trophy.

Playing it Close to the Vest

The first half was a defensive slugfest. USC picked up a field goal in the first quarter, but OSU answered with Champ Henson’s two-yard touchdown plunge. Both teams were crippled early by the loss of their offensive stars – Griffin for Ohio State and Davis for USC, who left the game with a rib injury. Ohio State leaned on Pete Johnson and a stifling defense, and went into the fourth quarter clinging to a 7-3 lead.

A Cloudburst of Offense

The Trojans finally broke the scoring impasse with an eight-yard touchdown pass from Hayden to tight end Jim Obradovich that put USC up 10-7. Cornelius Greene engineered the response from Ohio State, and the Buckeyes scored on their next two possessions, taking a 17-10 lead into the final minutes.

McKay vs. Colzie

With only minutes remaining, USC took possession of the ball on its own 17-yard line, and marched to the Ohio State 40, where the Trojans faced a critical fourth-and-one. Alan Carter, filling in for the injured Davis, picked up the drive-sustaining first down, and set up USC with first-and-ten at the Ohio State 38 with just over two minutes remaining in the game, and a critical play call coming up.

“I called the play and I remember both Hayden and Johnny (McKay, the coach’s son) saying, ‘It won’t work,’” coach John McKay remembered. “Johnny said, ‘He (Colzie) is staying way outside. I can never get to the corner on him.’ I said ‘Just try it. See if he gets there.’”

Regrettably, McKay got to the corner of the end zone, and Colzie didn’t. Haden’s 38-yard touchdown pass with 2:03 left in the game brought USC to 17-16.

In 1967, trailing Purdue by a point in the closing seconds of the game, McKay had elected to try a two-point conversion that failed, and USC lost the Rose Bowl. Now, in 1975, McKay didn’t hesitate. He and offensive coordinator John Robinson (who went on to coach USC in two separate stints) called a roll-out to the right, giving Hayden the choice of running with the ball or finding Johnny McKay in the end zone for the win.

On the two-point conversion attempt, Haden indeed rolled right, but found neither running room nor his friend Johnny McKay open. He elected to go with a jump-pass to Sheldon Diggs, who made a diving catch that gave USC the 18-17 lead.

Ohio State had a last chance to retake the lead, but a desperation 62-yard field goal attempt by Tom Skladany fell short, and USC had its second victory since 1972 over Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.

The Aftermath

Notre Dame pulled off a startling upset of Bear Bryant’s heavily-favored Crimson Tide, and that propelled USC to a shared national title (Oklahoma won the AP vote, USC the UPI tally). John McKay ended his career at USC, compiling a 5-3 record in the Rose Bowl; Ohio State finished the year 10-2, and ranked third nationally by the UPI.

“Even today, almost 25 years later, when January 1 rolls around, I think about that game,” Pat Haden said in 1999. “All of us who played in it have a connection with that game and that moment.”

How are Your Forecasting Skillz?

Cotton pheromones

We already know that I can see 4 hours in to the future, but what about yourself?

With the first big game of the '08 season, we have our first guess the score contest. The winner will receive two t-shirts from the 11W Store and you can ask any of the winners from last season -- those things attract members of the opposite sex like Rich Rodriguez pulls big-hair mamas.

Just leave your score prediction in the comments (you must include an email so we can contact you should you win). Normally house rules prevent us from naming winners that predict a Buckeye loss, but we're going to make an exception this week -- double digit spread and all...

The fine print:

  • Must be 18 years-old or older.
  • One entry/comment per person.
  • Your entry/comment must include a valid email address.
  • Deadline for entries is kickoff.

Oh No, Beanie is now Listed as Doubtful

In breaking news (12:45 pm) from 1460 the Fan, Beanie's foot was too sore today for him to practice. Of course I'm sure more details will come in this afternoon, but this is not the news we needed to hear before the Bucks board the plane.

Eyes on the Enemy: Mark Sanchez

After spotlighting Joe McKnight and Rey Maualuga over the past couple days, we finish up our Eyes on the Enemy mini-series with a look at USC QB Mark Sanchez.

The 6'3" junior will be searching for his first signature win following a 2007 campaign that saw him go 2-1 in place of injured starter John David Booty. Sanchez was at the helm in a close win over Arizona and a blowout victory over a hapless Irish squad before losing a tight one at Oregon the following week.

His QB ratings were up and down (54.5, 109.0, 79.0) and he compiled a pedestrian TD/INT ratio of 7 to 4 with three sacks. Further, the scrimmage against ND served as a true stat padder with Sanchez recording 4 TDs against zero picks.

Sanchez came out slinging in the 2008 season opener completing 26/35 for 338 yards and 3 TDs against 1 pick in the blowout of Virginia. More importantly for Trojan fans, Sanchez showed no ill effects from a dislocated kneecap suffered back in early August.

Out of Mission Viejo High School, Sanchez was the top rated QB in the nation in 2005 and he chose USC over a host of schools including Ohio State. After a redshirt 2005 season, Sanchez rode the pine in '06 after riding a USC co-ed who would later falsely accuse him of sexual assault.

A prototype drop back passer, the key to defending Sanchez is to get "boxed" pressure. To classify him as immobile would be incorrect because he has good feet enabling him to move laterally in the pocket however he would prefer to move to avoid pressure or create a throwing lane versus moving with the intent of tucking and turning upfield.

Last year's loss at Oregon saw Sanchez throw two picks in the 4th quarter to secure the defeat.

While his potential can't be argued, it can safely be stated that he's yet to really prove anything against elite competition. If the Buckeyes can get pressure, especially without the aid of a blitz, OSU could find themselves in position to escape the Coliseum with a signature win of their own.

Beanie Won't Be 100%

Beanie Wells carried the ball roughly 20 times in today's practice with both Tressel and Bollman estimating his health at around 75%.

The real key is how his toe responds tomorrow after his first contact practice since the injury.

Bollman didn't sound overly optimistic about a full strength Beanie being in the lineup come Saturday:

"You're just hoping that he can get in a situation where he can help us contribute in some situations," Bollman said. "The chances of him being 100 percent are not real high, I wouldn't think so. That would be a miraculous recovery here."

Anybody know any faith healers?

Eyes on the Enemy: Rey Maualuga

Rey will twist you like a pretzel and eat you.

With a trip to the Coliseum slowly approaching, we plan to take a quick look at a few of USC's more notable players in an effort to increase your familiarity, get your blood boiling and increase your hatred of L.A.'s only professional football team.

Chris took a look at USC's big offensive threat, Joe McKnight yesterday and today we take a look at Rey Maualuga, perhaps the scariest looking defender in the entire country.

Rey could have gone into the NFL, but the 6'2", 260 pound middle linebacker with 4.5 speed decided to come back for his senior season, looking to gain his third straight All-PAC-10 First Team honors. Rey is without question the heart and soul of this defense and perhaps the entire team.

Born in Oklahoma, Rey moved to Hawaii at a very young age, started playing football in the sixth grade and his family moved to California shortly after. After playing his freshman year in Ventura, his family moved north to Eureka, where he started to develop into the wrecking ball he is today.

During his final two years of high school, his teams went 20-2-1 and his numbers were sick: 242 tackles, 80 TFL, at least 11 sacks, 5 INT's (2 returned for TD), 2 fumble recoveries and a kickoff return for a touchdown. It is no surprise he played in the US Army AA game and was selected USA Today First-Team defense.

Rey Rey played backup most of the year as a freshman, but saved his best game for UCLA, where he posted 9 tackles (1 TFL), 2 forced fumbles and 2 deflections. Maualuga finished the season with 37 tackles and earned freshmen All-American honors. He also overcame a minor arrest in early November and the passing of his father 2 days before the Rose Bowl (USC v. Texas).

While he didn't start every game his sophomore year, Rey recorded 78 tackles, including 5 TFL and 2 sacks. These numbers were good enough for First Team PAC-10, some honorable mention AA awards and a semi-finalist for the Butkus award.

His numbers last year are not eye popping, but they were good enough to land Rey on Phil Steele's third team All-American honors and his second straight All-PAC-10 honors. He lead the Trojans with 79 tackles, including 10 for losses and 6 sacks. With the wood that Maualuga brings, it is surprising to see he only has 4 forced fumbles in his career.

He has been slowed just a bit by a broken finger this season, posting only 4 tackles in the Virginia thrashing. He passed out in the airport afterwards, claiming the 2 Vicodin he took before the game lead to dehydration. I can only hope one of my Buckeye brethren will some how sneak into the USC locker room and replace the Vicodin with Xanax.

His takedowns have become legendary and what legend doesn't have some type of nickname. "Maualugaed" has earned a spot in the Urban Dictionary and Brent Musburger will be dying to get that phrase into the telecast. Mark my words, the first big hit Maualuga has on Saturday, Brent will be putting down his beer and screaming "Holy Trojan Horse Herbie, Mo Wells just got Maualugaed!"

Trojan fans have littered You Tube with videos of Rey Rey's monster hits. The one below is eloquently titled, "Rey's Maualuga hit list" Here's to hoping one of the Buckeyes doesn't end up on that list.

Presser Notes: USC Week

Would Tressel enjoy coaching in LA, like Surfer Pete does?

The sound you heard yesterday at 12:17 pm was the collective breath of the Buckeye faithful as Tressel proclaimed Beanie was a go this week for USC.

Surprisingly it wasn't the first question asked, but the Vest was surprised as to how well #28 was running in practice. It was good to hear JT's enthusiasm towards Beanie's progress, but he still managed to give one of his classic Senator quotes.

In fact, I thought he ran better than I thought he might. Coaches, in some ways, we're optimists, and in other ways, we're pessimists, but hopefully we're realists. I thought he ran really well yesterday.

Perhaps the most questioned coaching decision from Saturday was not going for two after the Buckeyes pulled closer at 14-12 with 2:56 in the third. I convinced myself Tressel doesn't go for two unless he has to, but he must have forgot Woody's advice on going for three.

Our general rule of thumb is take every point you can get until you're into the fourth quarter significantly because you never know what they're going to do... So you get down into that eight, nine-minute mark of the fourth quarter, then I think those decisions really get a little sticky, but I think when you've got two something to go -- now, had I known we were going to miss the extra point --

Another question was the lack of carries Boom Herron saw after he scored the above mentioned touchdown. After listening to Tressel's answer, I was even more confused. My guess is OSU simply needs all four backs this year and while Beanie was out, the other three were going to split the reps.

Oh, yeah. I thought Boom Herron came in and showed a little electricity, a little burst, a little enthusiasm, was excited to play, maybe not in the first carry or two, but once he got his feet under him and it was good for him to get, I don't know, a dozen carries or whatever he had, he likes to run with his pads down and he's certainly got to help us.

I believe one of the advantages going for Ohio State this Saturday is getting Donald Washington and Jamario O'Neal back from suspension. I feel more confident about OSU's nickel package going out to Pete's territory and facing his offense. This was also a point Tressel brought up in response to a question, but he wouldn't specify specific looks.

I think anytime you get people back, whether it's from injury or suspension or from whatever, it adds to your depth. It adds to your skill sets. Those are two veteran guys and I'd like -- and they've been working hard and had good preseason training camps and played on the scout team for two full weeks and worked hard at it and did everything you could ask them to do and so you'd like to think that they would add to the overall.

For whatever reason the OLine decided not to show up until the third quarter last week and most of our readers thought they had the most blame for the offensive woes. Only Alex Boone and Steve Rehring had winning performances up front, so you might have an idea which way the Trojans may bring the heat. There is no question the right side of the line has to have their best career game if the Bucks are going to win.

That defensive front for Southern Cal is outstanding and they come in waves and they do a great job. So great test for everyone.

The entire transcript can be found here and you won't be disappointed if you like bizarre questions, like the one below or Tressel's roundabout answers.

I'm just trying to picture you in Hollywood, how that would work.

Other Notes: Tyler Moeller may not play this weekend, but Brian Rolle will be back and Todd Denlinger should be O.K... Brandon Saine is simply working his way back after missing 20+ preseason practices... The Buckeyes will practice Thursday morning and then fly out.

Brad Fanning's Message to Irrational OSU Fans

Brad Fanning, sports director for FOX Toledo news has a message for irrational Buckeye fans including the notion that OSU probably doesn't deserve a top 15 ranking. Enjoy.

(HT: Trojanwire)

God Bless Lou Holtz

Somehow, someway, he tries to make the point that Boeckman has the edge over Sanchez in the quarterback battle. Sir, I'll have some of what you're drinking, please.

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