Hello everyone and welcome to part two of my analysis of the 2024 Buckeyes! This post started when, after the flurry of draft-eligible juniors returned to the team, I saw multiple comments such as “We’re going to be loaded next year!” or “This could be the most talented Buckeye team ever!” and it got me thinking; could this Buckeye team actually be the best we’ve seen?
As stated in my previous post, for the purpose of this exercise we have to understand two things.
First, I will only be comparing the 2024 Buckeyes to the 2019 and 2015 iterations. These are the two teams that I hear most often regarded as the best Ohio State teams of the modern era. While there were teams in the 90’s or even the 02 championship squad that were really good, I don’t think it is right to compare teams from that long ago to today when the style of football played has changed so much.
Second, and more importantly, we have to find a way to separate ourselves from what ACTUALLY happened during those season, and how players ACTUALLY played. Comparing a season that hasn’t yet happened to one that already has is difficult. We have a tendency to want to compare what actually happened in a given season to what this current team has already accomplished, but that wouldn’t be comparing apples to apples. We want to see how the team GOING IN to 2019 compares to the team we currently have, therefore, I will not be using any statistics from the 2015 or 2019 seasons. Only statistics our players had while going into those seasons.
Offensive Recap:
QB: -- 2019 > 2024 > 2015
RB: -- 2015 > 2024 > 2019
WR: -- 2024 > 2015 > 2019
TE: -- 2015 = 2019 = 2024
OL: -- 2015 > 2019 > 2024
Overall Offense: -- 2015 > 2019 > 2024
While my offensive breakdown and analysis can be found here: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/ohio-state-football/2024/01/144818/how-does-the-2024-team-compare-to-teams-of-the-past
Today, it’s time for my defensive analysis. So let’s begin!
DE: J Bosa(Jr)/Tyquan Lewis(So) vs Chase Young(Jr)/Jonathan Cooper(Sr) vs JT(Sr)/Sawyer(Sr)
Key data: The 2015 team returned 75 tackles, 26 TFL, and 14 sacks from the previous season. The 2019 team returned 68 tackles, 21 TFL, and 13 sacks, while the 2024 addition will return 102 tackles, 22.5 TFL, and 14.5 sacks.
Analysis: While the 2015 team included a plethora of highly thought-of Buckeyes in the OG Bosa, Sam Hubbard, Tyquan Lewis, and Jalyn Holmes, it’s easy to forget that Steve Miller hardly came off the field in 2014, so nearly all the returning production was from Big Bear (81% of the tackles, 83% of the TFL, and 96% of the sacks – 55/21.5/13.5). The 2019 version of the Buckeyes returned a star player of their own in Young (34/14.5/10.5), they also had more balance, bringing back a grad senior in Cooper who piled up plenty of stats on his own (25/6.5/2.5). Finally, while the 2024 addition lacks a sure-fire top-10 pick, is does have the most overall balance of the three seasons, with JT and Sawyer each proving to be more productive versions of Cooper, with JT having a stat-line of 38/7/5, and Sawyer adding 48/10/6.5.
Verdict: -- 2024 > 2019 > 2015 -- What is better, to have more star-power, or more depth? If your answer is star-power, than your rankings are likely very different from mine. Joey Bosa was a man amongst boys, and would have been a top-10 pick had he been eligible to declare for the draft after his sophomore campaign. But beyond him, there was nothing but young unproven players waiting in the wings. Hubbard (a freshman), Lewis, and Holmes had combined to produce 20 tackles, 4.5 TFL, and 0.5 sacks – or, to put that in perspective, basically what Caden Curry produced on his own last year. The lack of production from that group had them in an easy third place in my rankings. Separating 2019 and 2024 was more challenging. Young was easily the best player on either of those units, but do not mistake him for being Bosa. While everyone knew he was a star in the making, his sophomore year yielded about two-thirds the production that Big Bear had. The thing that got them ranked higher in my book was the addition of a second dependable lineman. The idea of Cooper in addition to Young, gave me more confidence in the DE group as a whole. The same could be true about 2024. While that group lacks the top end of either Young or Bosa, both JT and Sawyer have shown flashes of greatness – with JT against PSU, and Sawyer against Mizzou. Their ceiling, when combine with the potential of 3rd year players in Curry and Jackson, seems to be higher than either of the other years. The 2024 group may not have a top-10 pick, but they are the most capable of withstanding an injury and still producing at an extremely high level.
DT: Washington/Schutt/Munger vs Hamilton/Landers/Cornell vs Hamilton/Williams/Kanu
Key data: The 2015 team returned 63 tackles, 10.5 TFL, and 4.5 sacks from the previous season. The 2019 team returned 73 tackles, 12.5 TFL, and 2 sacks, while the 2024 addition will return 111 tackles, 17 TFL, and 6 sacks.
Analysis: Just like at defensive end, the 2015 team was a one-man-show at defensive tackle. Adolphus Washington was a dude, racking up 76% of the tackles, 84% of the TFL, and ALL of the returning sack production (48/10.5/4.5). The 2019 team and 2024 team both return a deeper roster, with each year seeing four different players return with double-digit tackles. The 2019 team was led by BB Landers, who had a 25/5/1 stat-line from the previous season, and could go a legit 5-deep, with Hamilton, Cornell, Haskell Garrett, and Tommy Togiai. The 2024 addition will see the 1st and 3rd most productive returnees between the three seasons in Williams (53/10/3) and Ty Hamilton (38/4.5/2), while also seeing solid production from Hero Kanu and Jaden McKenzie (20/2.5/1 combined).
Verdict -- 2024 > 2019 > 2015 -- While I really struggled putting the DE’s into a specific ranking, I had no such issues with the DT’s. The 2024 Buckeyes return, by far, both the best top-end talent AND significant depth. While the 2019 team is remembered for Hamilton exploding, Cornell and Landers solid presence, and Togiai and Garrett beginning to come into their own, none of them had high expectations going into the season based off their past performance. For example, the elder Hamilton had about half the returning production of his younger brother (16/3.5/0 to 38/4.5/2). The 2015 team was an easy 3rd place ranking for me, as DT2 that year was a complete unknown. With Michael Bennett leaving for the NFL, that team was left with Tommy Schutt’s 10 tackles and 1 TFL as it’s second most productive returnee. That unknown was enough to allow the 2019 team to overcome the star-power that Washington brought to 2015.
LB: Lee(So)/McMillan(So)/Perry(Sr) vs Werner(Jr)/Borland(Jr)/Harrison(Sr) vs Simon(Sr)/Styles(Jr)/Hicks(Jr)
Key data: The 2015 team returned 258 tackles, 31.5 TFL, 12 sacks, and 6 forced turnovers from the previous season. The 2019 team returned 249 tackles, 29.5 TFL, 7 sacks, and 5 turnovers forced while the 2024 addition will return 118 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 2 sacks, and 1 turnover forced.
Analysis: Holy production, Batman! The 2015 team returned three of its top four linebackers, and an enormous amount of productivity. Not only were the returning players excellent linebackers, they were legit play-makers, with Perry (3 sacks, 1 FF, 1 INT), Lee (6.5 sacks, 1 FF, 2 INT), and McMillan (2.5 sacks, and 1 INT) all producing big plays in bunches. This was a unit that could easily withstand the loss of Curtis Grant from the previous season. The 2019 team saw similar quality, as they returned their top FIVE(!) linebackers, with Harrison (2.5 sacks, 1 INT), Borland (3 sacks, 2 FF), and Werner (3 sacks, 2 FF) also showing the ability to rack up game-changing plays. The 2024 team stands in stark contrast however, not just for the lack of productivity, but for the lack of play-making ability. Even if you included outgoing players like Eichenberg and Chambers, players considered linebackers (and Styles) contributed a measly 3 TOTAL sacks and only 3 turnovers forces. To enphisize the struggles of the 2024 group in coverage, linebackers only accounted for a single INT on the season – a number made even more absurd by the fact one of them was playing safety last season.
Verdict -- 2015 > 2019 >>> 2024 -- It was nearly impossible for me to choose between the 2015 and 2019 groups. Perry and Harrison deciding to return for their respective senior seasons was an amazing boon for their teams. Yet, even if they had decided to go pro, McMillan and Lee, and Werner and Borland would have easily outpaced the 2024 group of backers on their own. In the end, I decided the top end productivity and play-making of the 2015 group was better than the added depth of the 2019 team – which included Barron Browning and Justin Hilliard – two players with elite athletic ability and flashes of potential that simply had not been realized up to that point. As a final note, linebacker play seems to have fallen a long way over the past four seasons. Whether it’s due to Knowles’ system, the lack of a specific, designated, linebacker coach, or just players not developing, the lack of impact plays by this position group over the past few years has been nearly unfathomable. What would you give to have an (often maligned) Pete Werner on this year’s team? For as much hate as the O-line generates, linebacker, IMO, is the weakest link on our team. Good thing we really only play two of them at a time…
CB: Conley(So)/Apple(So)/Webb(So) vs Okudah(Jr)/Arnett(Sr)/Wade(Jr) vs Banks(Sr)/Hancock(Sr)/Igbinosun(Jr)
Key data: The 2015 team returned 74 tackles, 13 passes defensed, 3 INT and 1 FF from the previous season. The 2019 team returned 103 tackles, 21 passes defensed, 4 INT and 1 FF, while the 2024 addition will return 137 tackles, 22 passes defensed, 4 INT and 3 FF.
Analysis: The 2015 squad lost their top corner (Doran Grant) to the draft, but returned a pair of super sophomores in Eli Apple and Gareon Conley. Between the two, however, Apple was the star of the show, recording 74% of the returning tackles, 77% of the passes defensed, and all four of the turnovers. The 2019 team returned a far more balanced set of DB’s. Despite losing Kendall Sheffield to the draft, Damon Arnett, Jeff Okudah, and Shawn Wade each produced at least 30 tackles and 6 passes defensed. This group was the definition of a no-fly-zone, with a true lock-down corner in Okudah, a playmaking Nickle safety/corner in Wade, and Arnett rotating frequently enough with Sheffield to be considered a returning starter. In 2024, we see every meaningful CB return to the team, with Igbinosun and Hancock each recording at least 40 tackles and 5 PD’s, and Burke lacking statistics primarily because opposing QB’s were terrified of him.
Verdict -- 2024 > 2019 > 2015 -- Once again, I found it really difficult to distinguish between the 2024 and 2019 groups. Both teams had a lockdown corner (Okudah 32 tack/8 PD/0 INT v Burke 24 tack/9 PD/1 INT), and a play-making slot-corner (Wade 31 tack/7 PD/3 INT v Hancock 41 tack/5 PD/2 INT), and I considered these matchups to be a wash. Even the second outside corner is too close to call, with Igbinosun and Arnett racking up stats because they were attacked more frequently, and both showing a penchant for being a tad too aggressive and drawing unnecessary PI calls. Where the 2024 group wins out is with depth. Being able to depend on Jermain Matthews Jr and a duo of highly touted freshmen gives me more confidence than the backup situation in 19 (Cam Brown and Seven Banks). The 2015 team finishes a distant third here. While Apple was a dude on a championship team and Conley showed potential, the depth was just not there that year.
S: Bell(Jr)/Powell(Jr) vs Fuller(Sr)/White(Jr) vs Ransom(Sr)/Downs(So)
Key data: The 2015 team returned 179 tackles, 10 passes defensed, 11 INT, and 1 FF from the previous season. The 2019 team returned 183 tackles, 11 passes defensed, and 3 INT, while the 2024 addition will return 151 tackles, 7 passes defensed, 3 INT and 2 FF.
Analysis: Neither the 2015 team or the 2019 team lost any member of its safety room from the previous season. Meanwhile, the 2024 addition will lose a pair of safeties, with Proctor heading to the NFL and Styles (presumably) moving to LB. However, the 2024 team is also the only squad to see a significant addition through an incoming transfer. The 2015 team saw the return of Vonn Bell and Tyvis Powell, both of whom recorded over 70 tackles while also registering multiple impact plays (6 PD/6 INT for Bell, and 4 PD/4 INT for Powell). The 2019 team also returned all it’s safety production, and while Jordan Fuller was the clear top dog (81 tack/4 PD/1 INT) there was reason for optimism that a trio of young players in Brendon White, Isaiah Pryor, and Jahsen Wint would all continue the growth they showed during the 2018 season (White – 46/2/1, Pryor – 31/5/1, and Wint – 25/0/0). The 2024 team will return a fifth-year leader in Ransom, who produced well when healthy, while bringing in a true alpha in Downs (107/3/2), and hoping that Malik Hartford will continue to grow as a player.
Verdict -- 2015 > 2024 > 2019 -- While everyone is understandably hyped about the addition of Downs, Vonn Bell in 2014 was what we hope Downs becomes in 2024. He combined with Powell to register an absurd 12 takeaways. IMO that kind of returning production cannot be topped by Downs’ elite potential. 2024 takes second place despite the fact that, much like the linebackers, safeties in Knowles’ system seem to be less productive than past additions of the Buckeyes. It’s hard for me to put a finger on why this is. I can never recall seeing this team and thinking that the safeties were ever an issue on defense, yet, they also never really popped out as being difference makers. The addition of Downs hopefully changes that reality, and his potential alone is enough to overcome the productivity of Fuller. As a side note: while we all know what happened in 2019, with White, Pryor, and Wint, falling off a cliff and quickly being traded out for a single safety defense, that isn’t why they finished last in this exercise. All three of those players showed promise in 2018, and there was reason to be excited about how all of these players might continue to grow. I simply feel that the experience and talent of Ransom is more of a sure thing than the continued growth of someone like White. With that being said, if forced to really take Ransom’s injury history into consideration, a case can easily be made that the Safety room heading into 2019 was better stocked.
Final Analysis: By my admittedly amateur opinion, 2015 was the most mixed bag of all the defense. They returned truly elite units at both Linebacker and safety, running away with a first place ranking with the latter, but featured significant question marks at every other position group. Steve Miller, Michael Bennett, and Doran Grant never left the field in 2014, and the lack of a true second option at DE and DT really stands out to me now. Going into that season it was easy to wonder who else would step up in those rooms and, while corner had too solid options, the thought of sustaining an injury to either Apple or Conley would have been enough to cause a coronary. The 2019 team, on the other hand was the model of consistency. They ranked second in every category except Safety and, despite not coming out on top, a real argument could be made that they actually had the best/most complete groups at DE, LB, and CB. The 2019 team also avoided having any glaring weaknesses on their roster, unlike 2015 (defensive line and CB depth) and 2024 (hello linebackers!). Their only last place ranking came at Safety, with a unit that included the uber-productive Jordan Fuller. Finally, the 2024 team received mostly high marks across the board. They took a run-away first-place ranking at DT, narrow victories at both DE and CB, and field a competitive unit at Safety. The one glaring weakness appears to be at linebacker, but even that unit has a reliable (if not spectacular) option in Cody Simon, and another player in Styles who has the potential to explode while playing a position that better suits his skill set – think a larger version of what JOK does for the Browns.
Defensive Verdict -- 2024 > 2019 > 2015 -- In the end, 2015 had too many inconsistencies and question marks for me along the defensive line. While we all know the players Sam Hubbard and Tyquan Lewis would become, they weren’t that heading into the 2015 season, and the DT options were scary thin. That, when combined with the lack of depth in the secondary – CB3 was a giant question mark, and S3 was Erik Smith, a highly ranked player who had shown limited flashes in an even more limited role – were simply too much for me to rank them anywhere but third on my list. The 2024 and 2019 groups were much more difficult for me to differentiate. 2019 was such an amazing mix of top-end talent and solid depth that it was really difficult for me to rank them anywhere but first overall, despite them not ranking first at any individual position. Overall, I see 2024 having a significant advantage along the defensive line, with JT/Williams/Hamilton all seeming to be upgrades over Cooper/Landers/Hamilton. And while Chase Young is the clear choice as the top-dog on either line, his stats (34/14.5/10.5) going into that season were actually closer to Sawyer (48/10/6.5), than they were to Joey Bosa (55/21.5/13.5), so while he was still incredible, he was not the full-blown predator he became during the 2019 season. The 2019 team saw a significant advantage overall at linebacker, but if you only looked at the top duo on each team, the gap closes significantly, with Borland/Harrison having a dramatic edge in production, but Simon/Styles likely having the edge in potential. On a championship-or-bust team, I find myself leaning towards proven production, but perhaps your opinion is different from mine. That leaves us with the secondary where I see only the slimmest of margins making the difference between players, and the edge going to 2024 based on depth at CB with Matthews, and a more proven commodity at Safety, with Ransom over the potential of White/Pryor/Wint. That comparison is made more complicated, however, by the fact that the actual starter comparison is between Werner as a 3rd backer vs Ransom as a 2nd safety.
Overall Analysis -- Going into this exercise, I chose the 2015 and 2019 teams for two specific reasons. While, in hindsight, the 2015 team was a massive disappointment, coming off a title season and returning the production we did, that team was the most hyped team I have ever witnessed – making them a good comparison for the hype we currently have going into this season. Going into that season, everyone thought we could sleepwalk our way to the playoffs (and we nearly did). There seems to be a similar sentiment this season, even if it comes with more trepidation from the heartache of the past three years.
The 2019 team, on the other hand, was not chosen due to their hype. That team had significant questions going into the season. Would Fields be everything we hoped he could be? Could Dobbins bounce back from a down year? Could Bowen return from injury and anchor the right side of the line? Sure Jonah Jackson was all-conference, but he was coming from Rutgers(!)? No, I chose 2019 because, despite those questions, they are the team that is actually routinely mentioned as the best/most complete team of the past two decades – making them a good comparison because they are who we want this team to become.
Final Verdict -- Who knows -- I did this exercise because I thought it would be fun to compare this team to teams of the past, not to really come to any definitive conclusions. Hell, it’s been a week and a half and I’m already questioning some of my rankings for the offense. Likely giving Fields potential too much credit, and being far to harsh to the 2015 QB outlook and the 2024 offensive line. With that being said, I think 2015 had by far the most top-end talent of any group, with Elliot, Thomas, Bosa, Bell, Lee, Perry, Washington and a fully stocked offensive line, but they also had the most glaring holes, which, at the time, were mostly masked while basking in the glow of a championship season. Meanwhile, 2024 seems to have the most complete overall roster, but the least fully established stars – JT, Sawyer, Williams, Burke, Egbuka, Tre, Judkins, Jackson, Hancock, and Igbinosun all seem like guys who are likely to see their names called in the first three rounds next year. Even Howard, Hamilton, Ransom, and Styles could force their way into that conversation with good seasons, and Downs, Tate, Innis and Smith are all guys who will likely be in that range in the future. But are any of them top-15-pick kind of players? If forced to make an actual choice, I’m riding with the most elite of the defenses, and placing 2024 above the rest, with 2015 in second and 2019 in third, but feel free to tell me how wrong I am in the comments!
