I haven't heard a lot of optimism about the Buckeyes chances against Clemson outside of Vegas (who still has OSU as 3 point favorites), even here on 11W. So given it's officially Christmas here in Ohio, I thought I'd spread some cheer with seven reasons why I think OSU has a good shot against Clemson:
1) Clemson's offense is now almost entirely predicated on running the spread (I never saw them with less than 3-4 WR sets against FSU), OSU's defense is singularly built to defend spread teams. We're talking a Bane, "You merely adopted the [spread]. I was born in it, molded by it" kind of built to defend it. How so? OSU's ability to use OLBs like Worley and Baker in a dual role (run defense + pass coverage) gives them a defensive versatility which makes running the spread option incredibly difficult against them. See: Oklahoma's ineffectiveness to do so earlier this year (despite Mayfield having a 91 QBR vs. Watson's 82 QBR on the season, and 7 less interceptions than Watson in 2016). When a spread team can't run the option effectively (Mayfield had 8 rushes for 5 yards against OSU), they are forced to become pass heavy, which is relatively easy to defend, especially for a team like OSU that excels in pass coverage. Mayfield had a season low 53.1% completion rate, and a season high 2 INTs against OSU for that very reason.
Clemson is going to rely on their RB Gallman to open up this area of the offense for them, however OSU shut down two (arguably) more effective runners in Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon in virtually the same offense once this year, who's to say they can't do it once again to Gallman and Clemson? Teams like MSU, UM, and Wisconsin that run pro-style sets and hit you between the tackles give OSU some fits because of these smaller/hybrid OLB/S types, but spread-heavy concept teams have not been an issue (Oregon, Nebraska, Oklahoma, ND) during the Ash-Schiano regimes.
2) Clemson is offensively one dimensional (#7 pass offense, #67 rush offense). It just so happens that OSU is fantastic against that dimension (#6 pass defense in the country / #5 overall defense). You might argue that OSU is likewise offensively one dimensional (#9 rushing offense, #77 pass offense), but Clemson is not uniquely equipped to shut down OSU's pass offense: they are around #20 in both rushing defense and passing defense, so I would still give OSU the advantage here.
3) Clemson is turnover happy. Clemson's turnover margin is 0 (#68 in the country), OSU's turnover margin is +16 (#3 in the country). Not only is OSU fantastic at getting turnovers, they're excellent at cashing them in (#2 in the country in defensive TDs). Many have argued that this was just due to early season struggles, but Deshaun Watson had the same number of INTs in his last six games (7) as he did in his first six games, so it appears to be more of a consistent bad habit than an early season trend.
4) Michigan prepared OSU for Clemson's pass rush. I've heard many in the media say that Clemson's pass rush will be the best OSU has faced. This is inaccurate, Michigan's is statistically better. OSU struggled with it for the first three quarters, no doubt, but if one really believes that iron sharpens iron, then there can be no better preparation for OSU than to have faced a better pass rush than the one they will face next weekend. An elite pass rush will not catch them off guard, they will have had 30 days to prepare for it coming off of the experience of facing an even better pass rush team in UM.
5) I will take Urban over Dabo in a big game every time. Dabo got that Orange Bowl win, but let's be honest, that was a game so important that Bradley Roby took the night off. That's not to say that Dabo hasn't fashioned himself into a fantastic coach, but he's still batting .0% for national titles whereas Urban's got a fourth in his sights. Urban is 9-2 in bowl games (including the playoffs) overall, Dabo is 5-4 (also including the playoffs).
6) OSU's most dynamic player was neutralized to some degree (some because he still made a huge impact) by arguably the best CB in the country (Jourdan Lewis) and some guy named Gerbil Poppers in the UM game. Clemson has no one on defense who can match up to Samuel in the same way. Clemson struggled mightily to stop the VT spread option w/Jerod Evans and no RB to speak of. How will they stop an OSU spread that is unquestionably better, with two effective RBs (Samuel and Weber)?
7) Clemson's mascot is a tiger. Cats are curious. The buckeye nut is poisonous. Theoretically if a cat tried to eat said buckeye nut, the aforementioned cat might get a tummy ache at the very least. Therefore buckeyes > felines.
Okay the last one was stretching it a bit, but it's Christmas, why not? What are your optimistic reasons for liking OSU's chances against Clemson? Is it game time yet?
Tl;dr version: I like OSU's chances, how about you?
