As anyone who follows college football knows, the Buckeyes are losing a lot of starters from last season's team to the NFL this year. In fact, they could break the all-time record for players drafted from the same program in the same year (set by Ohio State a decade ago, incidentally). With only three starters returning on offense – and three on defense, a lot of fans seem to have a rather negative outlook toward the '16 season. But that may not be entirely justified.
Most followers of the sport would probably agree that even with a very inexperienced squad, the Buckeyes should be able to make it through the first two games on the '16 schedule without too much trouble. While Bowling Green had a good season by their standards - in '15, they'll be breaking in a new head coach. Plus, they'll be replacing some key players from last year's team – including their starting quarterback.
Tulsa will have a little bit more of a stable foundation – but the Golden Hurricane really weren't that good to begin with. Very suspect defensively. The simple truth is that neither team will have anything approaching the same level of talent on the field as Ohio State. One of the few things that could keep either game from being a complete blow-out might be the Buckeyes' general lack of experience. It's probably safe to say most objective observers would agree with that assessment.
On the other hand, it seems a great many Ohio State fans believe a loss in the third game, to Oklahoma, is practically a foregone conclusion. That belief is only exacerbated by the fact that the game will be played on the Sooners' home field.
OU qualified for the second college football national championship play-off. Even though, they did not fare particularly well once they got there, a victory in Norman against a play-off caliber team would seem to be an awfully tall task for such an inexperienced group of Buckeyes. Make no mistake. It would be.
But Ohio State didn't lose all those starters in a vacuum. While Oklahoma isn't losing nearly as many starters from '15's team as Ohio State – they are losing a great deal of proven talent at some highly critical positions.
For instance, they are having a particularly hard time finding a healthy replacement at center. Next to quarterback, there may not be a more important position in the offense at the college level. Both of the leading candidates are sitting out of spring drills with injuries. The more highly regarded of the two, Alex Dalton, is recovering from an ACL tear he suffered immediately prior to the Orange Bowl.
They'll need to find a new starter at one guard spot, as well. Although, they don't seem to be quite as freaked out about that.
There are also major losses at wide receiver. Most college football fans are familiar with Sterling Shepard. The Sooners are losing Shepard along with another one of their top receivers from '15, Durron Neal. The only returning wide receiver of note, Dede Westerbrook, was second to Shepard in receptions last season. But apparently, there's a fairly significant drop off after that.
It appears the OU coaches are struggling to find suitable replacements. For instance, one of the leading names being discussed is a graduate transfer from Penn State, Geno Lewis. Remember what a daunting task it was covering Lewis last season? Neither does anybody else.
Oklahoma is losing quite a bit of production from last season's defense, too. They're losing three edge defenders who combined to produce nearly half of the team's sacks last year. Some names are being kicked around – but one gets the sense the coaches are hoping a couple of highly-touted incoming freshmen will come to the rescue. One of them is a five-star linebacker they're extremely excited about, by the way. So get ready to hear the name, Caleb Kelly, this fall.
Contrary to Ohio State, Oklahoma will be returning most of their secondary in '16. There is one glaring hole to fill, however. The Sooners' outstanding corner from '15, Zack Sanchez, is heading to the NFL. The most likely replacement – apparently, by a fairly wide margin – is a youngster named Dakota Austin. By all accounts, Austin is an fine athlete. But while OU has him listed at 5'10”, some observers close to the program insist that's really stretching it. Perhaps, by a couple of inches.
By the way, Ohio State's likely starters at wide receiver are each at least, six feet tall – with excellent leaping ability.
A little side note here: A lot of teams are in a nickel defense a great deal of the time. That's nothing new. But interestingly enough, the Sooners are completely up front about it and refer to themselves as a 4-2-5. Whereas, most even-front teams still refer to themselves as a 4-3 even though they may actually be in a 4-2-5 more frequently. Of course, for Oklahoma, this makes sense in the pass-happy Big-12.
This could be of particular importance to the Buckeyes, however – as OU's preferred defensive personnel package might not be ideally suited to go up against a powerful running game. The Buckeyes should be able to pose enough of a threat in the passing game to keep a team that's already inclined to deploy a nickel – in a nickel. Something to keep in mind as the game approaches.
Also, upon reviewing the Orange Bowl, it was clear that Oklahoma's offensive tackles were having problems with Clemson's edge rushers. Both of the Sooners' starting tackles were very young last year – so it's reasonable to assume they will have improved this year.
The question is how much will they have improved. Ohio State is returning two of their best edge rushers this season (Lewis and Hubbard). OU's quarterback, Baker Mayfield has been known to make some questionable decisions when under pressure. That could be another major factor in the game.
Certainly, Oklahoma won't be replacing as many starters as Ohio State. No Power-5 team is. But it's not like the Sooners don't have some significant issues of their own. Their passing attack is bound to take a step back without many particularly promising replacements for Shepard and Neal. And it's never good to have so many issues at center.
Defensively, it appears OU is losing even more. They're likely to have problems replacing some very good edge players. And there is no way Urban Meyer is not going to get one of his many six-foot-plus receivers isolated on Oklahoma's 5'8” corner – repeatedly. Quarterback, JT Barrett, will just need to be able to hit them consistently.
This is not to suggest the Buckeyes are likely to win the game. Far from it. But a victory may not be entirely out of the question. Man for man, OSU should be more talented for the most part – they'll just be less experienced. And even that won't be the case at several key positions. At the very least, it should be quite an interesting game -
