Hopefully Ducks' fans will be leaving disappointed Monday night.
Apologies to those who read this before it went to Blog Heaven.
Oregon enters the National Championship Game with several statistical strengths. The Ducks are ranked in the top 20 in the following 10 statistical categories.
- Rushing Offense (17th)
- Offensive 4th Down Conversions (17th)*
- Punt Returns (12th)
- Passing Offense (11th)
- Offensive 3rd Down Conversions (4th)
- Total Offense (3rd)
- Scoring Offense (2nd)
- Offensive First Downs (2nd)*
- Turnover Margin (2nd)*
- Team Passing Efficiency (1st)*
As you can see above, every statistical category that Oregon excels in is offensive. Stop the offense and you stop the Ducks.
*I did not track this stat with the Ohio State Effect in 2014.
Below you will see what the Buckeyes' offense did to opponents and their Points Allowed stats. The teams are listed in order of their Points Allowed Average entering the game. Teams with the lowest Points Allowed Average entering the game are listed first.
Note:
Negative (-) numbers are good for Ohio State
Positive (+) numbers are bad for Ohio State
3 Things
- Ohio State's offense has obliterated opposing defense's points allowed stats all season. The Buckeyes' 42 points against Alabama was over 25 points more than the Tide's average allowed.
- Ohio State had the largest difference against Kent State (- 46.0) and Wisconsin (- 42.2). The Badgers had the 4th ranked Points Allowed defense and left with the 13th best after facing Ohio State's offense.
- Indiana's defense held the Buckeyes' offense to the lowest point difference (- 8.4).
Last week I stated:
If the average holds, Ohio State should score at least 40 points against Alabama.
If the average holds against Oregon, Ohio State should score at least 45 points against the Ducks.
| Team | Avg. Before Ohio State | Points Allowed Against OSU | Difference | Rank Before | Rank After |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech | 9.0 | 21 | - 12 | 21st | 27th |
| Penn State | 15.2 | 31 | - 15.8 | 6th | 9th |
 |
16.6 | 42 | - 25.4 | 4th | 6th |
| Wisconsin | 16.8 | 59 | - 42.2 | 4th | 13th |
| Maryland | 19.8 | 52 | - 32.2 | 31st | 66th |
| Kent State | 20.0 | 66 | - 46.0 | 50th | 102nd |
| Michigan State | 20.3 | 49 | - 28.7 | 22nd | 41st |
| That Team | 20.6 | 42 | - 21.4 | 21st | 28th |
| Minnesota | 21.3 | 31 | - 9.7 | 23rd | 28th |
| Rutgers | 21.7 | 56 | - 24.3 | 42nd | 65th |
 |
22.3 | ----- | ----- | 27th | ----- |
| Navy* | 24.4 | 34 | - 9.6 | 40th | 88th |
| Cincinnati | 29.0 | 50 | - 21.0 | # | # |
| Indiana | 33.6 | 42 | - 8.4 | 104th | 106th |
| Illinois | 34.4 | 55 | - 20.6 | 104th | 111th |
| Average | 21.6 | 45 | - 23.4 | 36th | 53rd |
*Navy before stats based on 2013 season.
# Like a dope I did not record Cincinnati's rank for Points Allowed.
The 2014 Buckeyes totally dominated opposing defenses. Every defense's Points Allowed stats were demolished by Ohio State's offense. If you are an opponent of Ohio State it has to be frustrating knowing that the Buckeyes on average will score 45 points.
Below is a compilation of the average season stats of the teams Ohio State played in 2014. To get a fair comparison for the "Ohio State Effect" I removed the points Ohio State scored against the opponent and divided the total by the number of games played through 1-4-2015.
| Team | Season Avg. Without Ohio State | Points Ohio State Scored | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
16.6 | 42 | - 25.4 |
| Penn State | 17.6 | 31 | - 13.4 |
| Wisconsin | 17.9 | 59 | - 41.1 |
| Michigan State | 19.2 | 49 | - 29.8 |
| Virginia Tech | 20.2 | 21 | - 0.8 |
| That Team | 20.6 | 42 | - 21.4 |
|
|
22.3 | ----- | ----- |
| Minnesota | 23.6 | 31 | - 7.4 |
| Kent State | 25.3 | 66 | - 40.7 |
| Cincinnati | 25.3 | 50 | - 24.7 |
| Navy | 26.7 | 34 | - 7.3 |
| Rutgers | 28.1 | 56 | - 27.9 |
| Maryland | 28.4 | 52 | - 23.6 |
| Indiana | 32.0 | 42 | - 10.0 |
| Illinois | 32.3 | 55 | - 22.7 |
| Averages | 23.8 | 45 | - 21.2 |
When the season stats are taken into account, Ohio State's first two games of the season are the least productive in points scored differential. As the season progressed the differential continued to widen.
Who would have guessed Ohio State would put 42 points on Alabama? Perhaps Tom Herman is out to prove he is a deserving winner of the Broyles Award.
