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3rd Down Conversions: The Ohio State Effect

Matt Gutridge's picture
December 16, 2014 at 6:44am
7 Comments
I don't have a clue.

I don't have a clue.

Tonight I will end this series with the Net Punting Average of Ohio State's 2014 opponents.

In case you missed it:
Rushing Defense: The Ohio State Effect
Points Allowed: The Ohio State Effect
Total Defense: The Ohio State Effect
Total Offense: The Ohio State Effect
Points For: The Ohio State Effect
Alabama's Statistical Strengths

 

A big thanks to the gentleman who was wearing the Ohio State pullover who chased my wife down to return my son's favorite gloves at the Zoo's Wild Lights tonight. You saved my five-year old a lot of tears and heartbreak. 

Alabama enters the Sugar Bowl with statistical strengths. The Tide are ranked in the top 20 in the following seven statistical categories:

  1. Points For  (16th)
  2. Total Offense  (16th)
  3. Total Defense  (11th)
  4. Points Against  (4th)
  5. Rushing Defense  (2nd)
  6. Offensive 3rd Down Conversions  (2nd)
  7. Net Punting  (2nd)

As you can see from the list above, Alabama has an impressive resume. 

Below you will see what the Buckeyes' defense did to oppontents and their offensive 3rd Down Conversion percentage. The teams are listed in order of their 3rd Down Conversion success rate entering the game. Teams with the highest percentage are listed first.

Note:
Negative (-) numbers are good for Ohio State
Positive (+) numbers are bad for Ohio State

3 Things

  1. The Largest difference was against Kent State (- .326)
  2. Opponents were able to convert nearly 40% of their third downs against Ohio State
  3. Alabama is the best team at converting on third down that Ohio State will face this season.

 

Ohio State's Effect on Opponent's Offensive 3rd Down Conversion Stats
Team Avg. Before Ohio State Against Ohio State Difference   Rank Before Rank After
Alabama
.541 ----- -----   2nd -----
Cincinnati .538 .486 - .052   12th 24th
Virginia Tech .533 .529 - .004   28th 17th
Navy* .511 .333 - .178   6th 81st
Michigan State .474 .481 + .007   17th 15th
Kent State .469 .143 - .326   42nd 96th
Penn State .424 .444 + .020   53rd 50th
Rutgers .423 .235 - .188   59th 75th
Minnesota .418 .357 - .061   57th 58th
Illinois .409 .400 - .009   53rd 61st
Wisconsin .405 .278 - .127   64th 74th
Maryland .405 .385 - .020   69th 76th
That Team .382 .546 + .164   81st 72nd
Indiana .295 .250 - .045   120th 121st
             
Average .437 .374 - .063   47th 63rd

*Navy before stats based on 2013 season.
 

Below is a compilation of the average season stats of the teams Ohio State played in 2014. To get a fair comparison for the “Ohio State Effect” I removed the 3rd Down Conversion percentages teams earned against the Buckeyes and divided the total by 11 (10 for Navy).

 

The Ohio State Effect When Compared to Opponent's 2014 Stats
Team Season Average Without ohio State Against Ohio State Difference
Alabama
.541 ----- -----
Ohio State
.515    
Michigan State .483 .481 - .002
Navy .439 .333 - .106
Minnesota .409 .357 - .052
Wisconsin .405 .278 - .127
Cincinnati .400 .486 + .086
Virginia Tech .389 .529 + .140
That Team .380 .546 + .166
Penn State .379 .444 + .065
Illinois .372 .400 + .028
Rutgers .352 .235 - .117
Maryland .316 .385 + .069
Indiana .309 .250 - .059
Kent State .290 .143 - .147
       
Average .379 .374 - .005

 

Nearly half of the teams Ohio State played in 2014 improved their 3rd down conversion success rate. To defeat Alabama Ohio State's defense cannot have a repeat of That Team or Virginia Tech.

 

Ohio State

 

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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