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Points Allowed: The Ohio State Effect

Matt Gutridge's picture
12/14/14 at 9:50a in the College Sports Forum
12 Comments

Did you know that ESPN aired Da U Part 2 last night? Do you think they talked about the 2003 National Championship Game? I'm sure they did not complain about the penalty in overtime.

What I hope Alabama fans look like at the end of the game.

What I hope Alabama fans look like at the end of the game.

Alabama enters the Sugar Bowl with statistical strengths. The Tide are ranked in the top 20 in the following seven statistical categories:

  1. Points For  (16th)
  2. Total Offense  (16th)
  3. Total Defense  (11th)
  4. Points Against  (4th)
  5. Rushing Defense  (2nd)
  6. Offensive 3rd Down Conversions  (2nd)
  7. Net Punting  (2nd)

As you can see from the list above, Alabama has an impressive resume. 

Below you will see what the Buckeyes' offense did to opponents and their Points Allowed stats. The teams are listed in order of their Points Allowed Average entering the game. Teams with the lowest Points Allowed Average entering the game are listed first.

Note:
Negative (-) numbers are good for Ohio State
Positive (+) numbers are bad for Ohio State

3 Things

  1. Ohio State had the largest difference against Kent State (- 46.0) and Wisconsin (- 42.2). The Badgers had the 4th ranked Points Allowed defense and left with the 13th best after facing Ohio State's offense.
  2. Indiana's defense held the Buckeyes' offense to the lowest point difference (- 8.4).
  3. If the average holds, Ohio State should score at least 40 points against Alabama.

 

Ohio State's Effect on Opponent's Points Allowed Stats
Team Avg. Before Ohio State Points Allowed Against Ohio State Difference   Rank Before Rank After
Virginia Tech 9.0 21 - 12   21st 27th
Penn State 15.2 31 - 15.8   6th 9th
Alabama
16.6 ----- -----   4th -----
Wisconsin 16.8 59 - 42.2   4th 13th
Maryland 19.8 52 - 32.2   31st 66th
Kent State 20.0 66 - 46.0   50th 102nd
Michigan State 20.3 49 - 28.7   22nd 41st
That Team 20.6 42 - 21.4   21st 28th
Minnesota 21.3 31 - 9.7   23rd 28th
Rutgers 21.7 56 - 24.3   42nd 65th
Navy* 24.4 34 - 9.6   40th 88th
Cincinnati 29.0 50 - 21.0   # #
Indiana 33.6 42 - 8.4   104th 106th
Illinois 34.4 55 - 20.6   104th 111th
             
Average 22.0 45.2 - 23.2   39th 57th

*Navy before stats based on 2013 season.
# Like a dope I did not record Cincinnati's rank for Points Allowed.

 

The 2014 Buckeyes totally dominated opposing defenses. Every defense's Points Allowed stats were demolished by Ohio State's offense. If you are an opponent of Ohio State it has to be frustrating knowing that the Buckeyes on average will score 45 points.

 

Below is a compilation of the average season stats of the teams Ohio State played in 2014. To get a fair comparison for the "Ohio State Effect" I removed the points Ohio State scored against the opponent and divided the total by 11 (10 for Navy). 

 

The Ohio State Effect When Compared to Opponent's 2014 Stats
Team Season Avg. Without Ohio State Points Ohio State Scored Difference
Penn State 16.5 31 - 14.5
Alabama
16.6 ----- -----
Wisconsin 16.8 59 - 42.2
Michigan State 17.3 49 - 31.7
Virginia Tech 20.4 21 - 0.6
That Team 20.6 42 - 21.4
Ohio State
21.2    
Minnesota 22.7 31 - 8.3
Kent State 23.0 66 - 43.0
Cincinnati 24.7 50 - 25.3
Maryland 26.8 52 - 25.2
Rutgers 28.6 56 - 27.4
Navy 29.5 34 - 4.5
Illinois 32.0 55 - 23.0
Indiana 32.0 42 - 10.0
       
Average 23.9 45.2 - 21.3

 

 

When the season stats are taken into account, Ohio State's first two games of the season are the least productive in points scored differential. As the season progressed the differential continued to widen. Perhaps that is one of the reasons why Tom Herman won the Broyles Award.

 

Ohio State

 

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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