If you assume that 2 losses equals elimination, and that every overdog winning out will give you the max amount of playoff-worthy contenders possible, I set up this theoretical situation.
The teams that still have higher ranked opponents left on their schedule (except for MSU and Nebraska) are:
Auburn at 3 loses to Miss St. - they're out
Ole Miss at 4 loses to Auburn and Miss St. - they're out
Alabama at 6 loses to Miss St. and Auburn - they're out
Michigan State at 8 loses to Ohio State - they're out
Kansas State at 9 loses to TCU - they're out
Georgia at 11 loses to Auburn and eventual West Champ - they're out
Nebraska at 15 loses to Ohio State in the B1G Championship - They're out
Utah at 17 loses to ASU, Oregon and Arizona
That means the max remaining amount of teams would be:
Rankings listed as ranking when played/CFP
#1 Miss St. ranked wins - @ #8/19 LSU, #6/NR TAMU, #2/3 Auburn, @ Alabama, @ Ole Miss, Georgia (East Champ)
#2 Florida St. ranked wins - #22/21 Clemson, #5/10 Notre Dame, @ >#25 Louisville
#5 Oregon ranked wins - #7/8 MSU, @ >#17 Utah
Loss - NR/#12 Arizona
#7 TCU ranked wins - #4/18 Oklahoma, #15/NR Ok St, @ #20 WVU, >#9 KSU
Loss - @ #5/13 Baylor
#10 Notre Dame ranked wins - #14/NR Stanford, @ >#14 ASU, >#25 Louisville
Loss - @ #2 FSU
#12 Arizona ranked wins - @ #2/5 Oregon, @#22 UCLA, @ #17 Utah, <#14 ASU
Loss - USC
#16 Ohio State ranked wins - @ >#8 MSU, >#15 Nebraska in the BTCG
Loss - VT
Except that it's possible,
- Miss St. will lose to Alabama on the road
- TCU loses @ WVU or vs. KSU (but KSU's remaining schedule is brutal, they won't come out alive)
- Arizona loses to Utah
If that happened it would leave 2, 5, 10 and 16 from the current CFP rankings
That's us. The only thing we'd have to worry about is Auburn being considered a better team with 2 losses than we are with 1. It wouldn't be too illogical either in this play out. I'm sure I missed some things.
We just have to win out though, and things can take care of themselves.
