I've never understood why they calculate the chances of going undefeated like this. If each game is an independent event (meaning the previous or following events don't effect the current probability), wouldn't that mean that the true likelihood of us going undefeated would be exactly the value of our lowest chance of winning?
I understand the multiplication, I'm in an inferential statistics class right now. But essentially what you're saying is that if we played this season 100 times we would go undefeated 7 times or even 29 times, that's false. I don't want to sound like the super-homer, but I don't think the B1G will get any better this year as a whole. Also, I believe we have improved on two teams that have gone undefeated in the regular season for the last two years.
I put our chances of going undefeated this season at 40-50%. 50% chance of beating MSU, and then a 10% deduction for the difficulty of stringing together wins.
If you're favored to win at >80% in consecutive games, there simply won't be a previous event effect on the current game. Obviously, it only takes one bad day to shoot down my argument, but we've only had two of those in the past two years.