Is Brady Hoke's Job Security at Stake in 2014?

By Michael Citro on May 29, 2014 at 1:00p
91 Comments

Last week we explored the possibility that Tim Beckman would be the next Big Ten head coach let go and the difficult road he will have putting up a decent season in his third year at Illinois. Today we take a look at another coach who may be feeling the warmth of the chair beneath him—a man named Brady.

After the Rich Rodriguez era in Ann Arbor, Wolverine fans seem to have adjusted their expectations a bit. Take a trip through the comments section at Michigan sites and optimism isn’t at an all-time high.

And with good reason.

Brady Hoke is entering his fourth year in Ann Arbor and his record has diminished each year as Michigan’s head football coach. He must have looked like a savior taking RichRod’s kids to an 11-2 season and a Sugar Bowl win over Virginia Tech in 2011. The Wolverines beat Ohio State’s worst squad in decades that year and Michigan fans got to blow off a lot of pent-up angst. Michigan was back, after all. Right?

Wellllll...

Michigan followed that bounce-back season with an 8-5 campaign, a return to their losing ways in The Game, and a loss to South Carolina in the Outback Bowl.  Then Hoke’s team went 7-6 and lost the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl badly to Kansas State last year. Even worse, after two 6-2 B1G seasons, the Wolverines went 3-5 in conference play in 2013, with back-to-back games held to negative yards rushing.

Hoke enters his fourth year with a 1-2 record against Ohio State, a 1-2 bowl record that could have been 0-3 had a Virginia Tech touchdown not been questionably overturned by replay, and a record of 7-11 away from Michigan Stadium. They aren’t RichRod numbers, but clearly this is still not good enough for Michigan fans, nor should it be.

That fact has shown itself in dwindling attendance in the Big House, forcing Michigan to offer confectionary bribery and devalue "the Michigan experience."

In the off-season, Hoke replaced offensive coordinator Al Borges with Doug Nussmeier from Nick Saban’s staff at Alabama. Meanwhile, although defensive coordinator Greg Mattison has cobbled together a better defense than Rodriguez ever had, the Wolverines have not been world beaters on that side of the ball and have had zero answers for the Buckeye offense—even the dreadful 2011 version, which came one overthrown pass from winning at the Big House.

The time has come for Hoke to put up or shut up. Does this season’s schedule have enough wins for him to keep his job?

One would think Hoke needs at least eight wins to keep his job and he probably must either beat Ohio State, Michigan State or a decent bowl opponent. This is my opinion, although our friend Ace from MGoBlog doesn’t think he’s on the hot seat quite yet.

Michigan’s schedule seems to favor Hoke, provided Nussmeier can fix the offensive line problems that have plagued the Wolverines the last couple of seasons—and if Mattison can upgrade the defense a bit.

What a difference one letter can make.
Hoke hopes to keep his job. He'll need wins..

The season starts with a home rematch with Appalachian State on August 30. While it would be hilarious to see lightning strike twice in Ann Arbor, the odds favor the home team this time around. The Mountaineers are coming off a 4-8 season (4-4 in the Southern Conference). The Appalachian State team that stunned Michigan in 2007 was coming off an FCS National Championship and was en route to another. I think Hoke gets revenge on the hated rivals from Boone, N.C.

Week 2 is the soon-to-be-gone biannual trip to South Bend, Ind., to take on Notre Dame. The Irish are coming off a 9-4 season and a Pinstripe Bowl win over Rutgers. Notre Dame will have quarterback Everett Golson back after he spent a year away from the program for academic issues. This one won’t be easy for Hoke, who has struggled on the road during his Michigan tenure.

Next up is Miami of Ohio. The Redhawks were dreadful last year, going 0-12 overall and 0-8 in the Mid-American Conference. Michigan should get the win here. The following week Utah comes to town. The Utes were just 5-7 overall and 2-7 in the Pac-12. Hoke figures to get the better of Kyle Whittingham’s team at home.

Michigan stays home again Sept. 27 to welcome Minnesota. The Wolverines routed a decent Gophers team for the Little Brown Jug a year ago, 42-13. Jerry Kill’s team is on the rise, but Minnesota has claimed the jug only once since 1986. History favors Michigan here.

A trip to Rutgers will be made difficult only by the fact that Hoke will be away from Ann Arbor. Still, it’s not hard to imagine the Wolverines struggling in New Jersey. A loss here could put eight wins in jeopardy. I don’t expect it, but it could happen.

The schedule toughens a little after that. Penn State visits on Oct. 11 and, after a bye week, Hoke takes his team to East Lansing for a date with Sparty on Oct. 25. The Wolverines could be 5-3 or 4-4 after the in-state game against “Little Brother”—or they could be 6-2. I don’t see Michigan beating the Spartans, but Penn State may be ripe for the picking.

A visit from Indiana is a good chance for Michigan to bounce back should it lose to Michigan State. But the Hoosiers also visited Ann Arbor last year and they hung 47 points on the Michigan Stadium scoreboard before losing 63-47. A trip to Northwestern follows, where Michigan squeaked out a triple-overtime win over the reeling Wildcats a season ago.

I think the Wolverines can get past both teams. I expect their record to be 7-3 at this point, but they could be a game better or worse.

That only leaves a home game against Maryland and a trip to Columbus. The Terrapins may be that eighth win Hoke needs, but if he can’t pull an upset in The Game, he may find himself 8-4 with no wins in rivalry games. At that point, it’s anyone’s guess what kind of opponent the Wolverines would draw in a bowl game on par with last year’s Buffalo Wild Wings appearance.

If Michigan does go to a bowl of that level with an 8-4 mark and no rivalry game wins, I believe Hoke would need to win the bowl to keep his spot in Ann Arbor for another year. I think he gets it done and stays put for now.

Then again, I may be wrong. We’ll find out in about seven months.

91 Comments

Comments

THEOSUfan's picture

I feel like we need to get behind Coach Hoke.  He is good for Ohio State football.

+13 HS
Oyster's picture

I think we all can get behind him, literally.

May you R.I.P. Otsego, but know this. Gaylord Rocks!

+20 HS
GVerrilli92's picture
HEY OHHHHH!

How many cheeseburgers are you gunna drive into that dirty old cheeseburger locker Brady Hoke?

+5 HS
Max Power's picture

Way to take advantage of a perfect set up. Upvote for the chuckle Sir!

+1 HS
ISURVIVEDCOOPER's picture

I concur for the most part. The dilemma we Buckeye fans face though is the diminishing luster of our storied rivalry, because of the need for TSUN to be nationally relevant annually.  Can we have Hoke for a long time and put a limit on beating us maybe 1 out of every 6 games and be content?

Dominating TSUN feels great, and nothing feels more right with the world when we win, but heck, the rivalry started because Bo was bold enough to give Woody a taste of his own medicine of sorts.  I can only see Tom Herman or Ed Warriner leaving to take the Michigan job to create a similar effect

"I don't apologize for anything.  When I make a mistake, I take the blame and go on from there." - Woody Hayes

ibuck's picture

 I can only see Tom Herman or Ed Warriner leaving to take the Michigan job to create a similar effect

Hush your mouth.  

I'd be content to see things continue to be one-sided. Over the last 100 years, UM only leads 46-45-4 vs OSU. 

Our honor defend, we will fight to the end !

If you can't win your conference, just quietly accept your non-playoff bowl game.

+6 HS
BME_Buckeye's picture

And they lead the all time series by 13 games. 58-45-6 I think. Include vacated win if you want for win #46. Why do so many people partition history. 

Look closely, because the closer you think you are, the less you will actually see.

 

-1 HS
ibuck's picture

Why do so many people partition history.

Could it be because those first 12 UM wins from the 1890s-1912, when football was a club sport at OSU, are so relevant today?

Our honor defend, we will fight to the end !

If you can't win your conference, just quietly accept your non-playoff bowl game.

+2 HS
ISURVIVEDCOOPER's picture

I HIGHLY doubt it would happen, and I know it's silly playing out scenarios like this, but I can't help but think that it's not out of the realm of possibility with 7 figure salaries staring you in the face when you have a family to support.  

Also, didn't Urban even have an out clause in his Utah contract if Michigan would have offered (along with tOSU and ND) - not sure if he had the same clause in his Florida contract, too... but either way, just sayin'... glad he's with us, whoever his assistants may be =)

"I don't apologize for anything.  When I make a mistake, I take the blame and go on from there." - Woody Hayes

GVerrilli92's picture

I would love for Michigan to only lose one game a year every single year...

As long as we go undefeated.

How many cheeseburgers are you gunna drive into that dirty old cheeseburger locker Brady Hoke?

+2 HS
buckeyeEddie27's picture

I just got a sour feeling of an Urban vs Herman war a la The Ten Year war. He doesn't need to go there at all.

I know there's a game Saturday, and my ass will be there.

-1 HS
IBLEEDSCARLETANDGRAY's picture

You put your 8-5 in, you take your 7-6 out and you shake it all about, do the Hokey TSUN Pokey! A competitive TSUN helps The Game but honestly, they can struggle for all I care.

"Sherman ran an option play right through the south" - Greatest Civil War analogy EVER.

+14 HS
jpbuckeye's picture

Well put; I would upvote if I was able.

While I do understand the OSU fans that want a stronger *ichigan; I would be happy to beat them year after year and let their tears provide moisture for the Buckeye Grove. But then again if I was in a firefight I would put one or two extra rounds in the bad guys to be sure they were no longer a threat. :-)

Happy Friday Buckeye Nation.

+1 HS
hit_the_couch's picture

I'm gonna say yes, his job security has been at stake; a loss to tOSU this year and he's gone.

That 11-2 record in '11 is also over glorified; they didn't play any of the top teams in the B1G that year other than getting their asses handed to them by, a probably average, MSU team. Va Tech probably would have won that Sugar Bowl if they didn't send home their first and 2nd string kickers.

And then I told her...i'm no weatherman, but tonight's forecast is calling for several inches!

+1 HS
BME_Buckeye's picture

I doubt one game will get him fired but if he doesn't execute, win any red letter games as UM fans call it or show development his ass is canned. Now given Dave Brandon ability to show he made a mistake hiring the wrong guy don't be surprised if Hoke is there for one more year due to their AD pride issues.

Look closely, because the closer you think you are, the less you will actually see.

 

OSU_ALUM_05's picture

An angel gets its wings every time Hoke loses in the same week that RichRod wins

+11 HS
dubjayfootball90's picture

That chair be screaming for its life!!!

You can feed a bobcat all the chili it wants. That don't mean it's going to crap out diamonds.

+5 HS
TheTeam16's picture

Anything less then 9 wins and he gone. 

Too bad that exactly what we will most likely end up getting to...confound it all.

+1 HS
yrro's picture

I disagree. Hoke is exactly what we *don't* want in the rivalry.

He's a guy who recruits really well, so he pulls players we want.

He sucks in general, so Michigan doesn't improve the reputation of the Big 10.

BUT, he gets the rivalry, and made it a damn close game against us the last two years, despite all statistical probability. He's exactly the kind of guy who could pull the season-destroying upsets the rivalry is known for.

I'd much rather Michigan either fail entirely with a RichRod type, or if they must be good, find their own John Cooper.

+3 HS
causeicouldntgo43's picture

Somebody tell UM - Coops wants back into coaching.

-2 HS
TheTeam16's picture

My uncle is a HUGE UM football donor, he was a walk on at UM. Believe me when I tell you...9 wins or its over. 

Too bad 2015 will be more deep and talented than the 2006 team was, and there is a high probability of going through yet another coaching change. 

I love Brady as a person, he reminds me a lot of Tress who I also admired as a human being. He was never and will never be the man to lead Michigan back to relevance. 

If Brady is let go, it will be Jim or John at around 6.5M a year. Bank it. 

Hoody Wayes's picture

Yeah, my MClub buds say the same thing: 9 wins.

However...

Hoke. Must. Beat. Ohio State. In the Shoe.

If he doesn't, 9 wins won't mean shit. They'll opt to intro the new guy the following year, in AA.

TheTeam16's picture

Actually that is not true.

Sentiment among donors at the moment is we need to beat sparty. There have been long streaks of losing to osu and us beating osu before, nothing new. Sparty however, is a whole different story.

He needs to beat or at the least play agreat game against MSU this year. Losing in C-bus is not a death ticket this year. If he is around next year when we in all probability have one of the most, if not the most talented team in the big ten, and loses to OSU in AA, then he gone.

+4 HS
Hovenaut's picture

That's a good point - I don't recall where there have been simultaneous struggles with Sparty and OSU before. Seems like Sparty has a good year here and there, or has pulled the upset now and then, but nothing with consistency that I can recall.

Just seems as though the program has taken a step back since Carr left.

+2 HS
TheTeam16's picture

Carr was 65% of the demise, so yes that would make sense...

+1 HS
osu07asu10's picture

If Brady is let go, it will be Jim or John at around 6.5M a year. Bank it. 

You may be right but I find it hard to believe that Brandon and the administration wouldn't have ponied up for one of the Brothers Harbaugh before Hoke. They tried, they just couldn't convince either to leave.

I think that will still be the case after Hoke leaves. The Brothers Harbaugh both make in excess of $4m a year in base salary (Jim $5m, John $4m) and will likely increase with continued success.

To jump from the NFL where there is no responsibility in recruiting and everything else the college game brings in addition to coaching, I just don't see it happening.

It is a great pipe dream for TSUN fans to hold to if that helps you ride out the Hoke years, but don't expect Jim or John to ride into town on a wolverine to save the program.

"They don't know what they don't know." - Coach Mick

+4 HS
BME_Buckeye's picture

This is the problem with Michigan.  They wanna do things the Michigan way, and hold to that bullshit of the Michigan difference and hire Michigan Men. The sooner they cut ties with their AD and realize that Jim and John won't return; the sooner they will become relevant. They need to get over the self-righteous attitude of doing things the Michigan way too.

Look closely, because the closer you think you are, the less you will actually see.

 

+5 HS
osu07asu10's picture

I suppose we're spoiled as we had 1 coach in mind when Tressel was fired resigned and (if there was ever doubt) we landed him.

They were spurned by Les Miles which led to RichRod and spurned by the Harbaughs which led to Hoke. If I was a fan, I wouldn't put too much stock in potential replacements who have already told us no.

"They don't know what they don't know." - Coach Mick

+2 HS
TheTeam16's picture

Offer was never made to Miles, so impossible to be spurned by him. Never reached out to John, only Jim...and Jim wanted to be in the NFL more...I dont think that is being spurned as much as it is wanting to experience the pinnacle of your profession...

jpbuckeye's picture

Did your Uncle (the BIG BOOSTER) tell you there was no offer? Did he tell you there was absolutely no communication between the two parties that gave Les a moment to seriously consider an agreement; kind of like feeling each other out?

I claim no big booster affiliations, but the information/rumors I heard led me to believe that there was some strong consideration on Myles part.

 

GO BUCKS!

TheTeam16's picture

John and Jim were not leaving the NFL, just wasnt going to happen. Things are different now though.

Plus, if hoke is gone, i would bet all the money in my possession Brandon is either canned by the new pres or resigns. It is well known he plans on running for Governor soon...and his wagon is hitched to Hoke. He is too arrogant to let the ship go down, that is why he hasnt fired him yet, because he made the mistake of hiring him in the first place. 

Fear The Elf's picture

It is well known he plans on running for Governor soon...and his wagon is hitched to Hoke.

I am sorry, but this is delightful. Michigan fans try to paint Ohio as culturally backwards hicks who worship football, while Michigan is high society. Yet, a potential gubernatorial candidate's political future hinges upon a football coach.

Imagine the howling if Geiger had run for Governor.

TheTeam16's picture

At some pint one of them will be a coach here. Take my name and write it down, I will bet anything on it. 

They both love this university, even after some of the shit Jim went through...but now MSC is gone. With my uncle being a big booster I hear a lot of info many are not privy too, it just wouldnt shock me at all. The time just was not right the last time around, Jim wanted to experience the nfl. You probably dont believe me, but this is what I have heard and how I feel about it. 

BuckeyeVet's picture

@ TheTeam16 - I could see it happening only if one of the Harbaugh's are canned from their NFL job, and then availaable if Hoke is fired. Otherwise I'm still betting on them staying in the NFL if the UM job opens up.

"Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's too dark to read."          - Groucho Marx

 

+1 HS
Codeezy's picture

Great response! My thoughts exactly. 

Oyster's picture

I agree, if Harbaugh wanted to coach at ttun, he would have accepted when he was offered after the RR firing.  Same thing with Miles.  They both turned it down and now they have hoke.

May you R.I.P. Otsego, but know this. Gaylord Rocks!

TheTeam16's picture

Again...offers were never made to either of them. Dont be spoon fed by the media. 

fear_the_nut70's picture

I love how people just pencil in one of the Harbaughs as if all UM has to do is shake the money maker and one of them will come a runnin'.  Both are in the NFL for a reason.  Jim passed on the UM job once before, and generally said some negative stuff about the school.  To say TTUN has been struggling for a bit is putting it mildly, and many have been openly critical of Dave Brandon and his overemphasis on branding and making a buck.  I have heard many say that UM fans, alums, and boosters are delusional, talking glory days and just expecting UM to be what it once was, well, because they won a lot of football games in the twentieth century.  Sounds like a real hoot to deal with those folks.  I have no idea why either of the Harbaugh's would give up their current gigs for this situation.

+1 HS
TheTeam16's picture

Essentially all osu did was shake a bunch of money at urban to leave his cushy espn job...its not really amy different. Urban loved osu enough to come back...I bet everything I have one of the brothers do too.

yrro's picture

I'd say there's a fair bit of difference between coaching a super bowl contending team in the NFL, and a commenting at ESPN, in term of desirability for a high level competitor of a coach.

If Meyer's heart wasn't giving him fits I don't know he would have left Florida, no matter how much money we waved in his face.

+1 HS
TheTeam16's picture

The difference is Meyer has said on multiple occasions he never wishes to coach in the NFL, and other than coaching college he said that working at ESPN was awesome. Therefore it is a bit similar, due to the fact that is both their ideal situations if not involved in coaching college football. And yes, Meyer would have left Florida, unless you believe what he said about OSU being his dream job is all bs...then again he said that about utah and florida as well so I'm not sure. Still think that his medical problems were secondary to other things happening at florida, causing him to leave. But hey, that's just me. I know nothing more than anyone else. 

Oyster's picture

I'll say this Team16, you are certainly trying very hard to convince yourself that you are right about the Harbaughs, aren't you?  Do you believe yourself yet?

May you R.I.P. Otsego, but know this. Gaylord Rocks!

TheTeam16's picture

Dont have to convince yourself when there is evidence. You wouldnt know, because most OSU fans arent walking around wondering about the harbaugh's coaching prospects, whereas michigan fans...especially ones with close connections to the football program and alumni association are very in tune with the information. 

yrro's picture

1) Urban Meyer is an expert at blowing smoke up everyone's ass. Everything is the best ever. Does he mean it? To some degree, but I don't take it as gospel. I think it would be very similar to the situation Les Miles is in at LSU. If he was starting from scratch, would he take the UM job over LSU? Any day. But when he's already won a national championship there, has his staff and recruiting contacts in place, is beloved by the fanbase... he's not going to pick up and leave for normal reasons.

2) Obviously Michigan wasn't either of the Harbaugh's dream jobs :) I can see them finally ending up at Michigan if they wash out of the NFL, but given their track records that doesn't seem likely any time soon.

+1 HS
CowCat's picture

Apart from the health issues, I think Urbz was burning out at Florida anyway.
I believe he had clauses in his contract allowing him to leave for TOSU or Notre Dame - at Utah at least.

"We get paid to score touchdowns, not kick field goals"
-- Urban Meyer

+2 HS
hodge's picture

CowCat, the schools you're referring to weren't built into his contract, they were the three schools he said his wife couldn't veto in his book, Urban's Way: Ohio State, Notre Dame, and the University of Michigan.

Personally, I think that UF burned him out so much that he was ready for a break -- something that the health problems manifested in his work provided him an easy escape route with.  I think that of those "Dream Three", he would've only taken the OSU job in 2011 -- but not because he wanted it any more than UM or ND.  OSU presented him a brilliant opportunity to take the reins of a team that didn't need rebuilt -- something the other two schools were in desperate need of.

Maybe OSU was his "dream job", maybe it wasn't.  I don't care if he's blowing smoke or not because he's here now, and I don't see him leaving this job for anything else.  

jpbuckeye's picture

False. Coach Meyer wanted to be our coach. Not saying the money did not matter only that it was not the only or major reason.

If Harbaugh said a few negative remarks about your program or AD, you cannot compare the two situations.

warriard1002's picture

I Think he stays put at least one year unless he loses his rivalry game and has another bad loss on top og those like what should have happened in the Akron game last year. A bad year and more recruits bailing for other schools especially The Ohio State University in the case of the Weber Kid will be his demise. But all in all i think he has one more good year to make excuses.

Red Shirt Ensign's picture

Anyone else notice that his shadow is even larger than he is :-)

"Captain, over here, I've found someth... AHHHH!!!!!!"

 

+1 HS
osu07asu10's picture

It is too early to tell if indeed Hoke's seat is warm (Job security), or if he trusted a fart he shouldn't have...

 

"They don't know what they don't know." - Coach Mick

BuckeyeVet's picture

That is a truly bizarre gif.

"Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's too dark to read."          - Groucho Marx

 

+2 HS
Chief B1G Dump's picture

Obviously from the movie Bad Grandpa...BUT, did you know that this very scene was filmed right here at Pauls Diner in Grandview!

+1 HS
Ball-Z-Buck's picture

I don't care how many games they win as long as one of them is not in Columbus this year.

+2 HS
Doc's picture

Lose them all and let Pizza man sort 'em out!

"Say my name."

+1 HS
RedStorm45's picture

Week 2 is the soon-to-be-gone semi-annual trip to South Bend, Ind., to take on Notre Dame.

They visit in the spring too?

 

Hope they lose them all.

-2 HS
NW Buckeye's picture

In the off-season, Hoke replaced offensive coordinator Al Borges with Doug Nussmeier from Nick Saban’s staff at Alabama.

Hoke did not initiate this.  He had just stated in December that  there would be no staff changes, quite emphatically.  Brandon then forced the issue by hiring Nussmeier and canning Borges.   Nussmeier's days at Bama were numbered because of Nickie's love affair with bad boy Lane(y) K.  Brandon saw that as an opportunity to 'fix' the wolverinie problem and dictated the move to Hoke.  This is probably the biggest indication that Hoke is, indeed, on the hot seat. 

+1 HS
kholmes's picture

This is pure speculation...there is nothing factual to suggest that Brandon dictated the move. It was stated that Hoke did yet the internet seems to think Brandon controls everything so it ran with the Brandon narrative. I clearly dont know for sure but there are no real facts to suggest otherwise.

BuckeyeVet's picture

I'm wondering if Nussmeier was brought in as an insurance policy. If Hoke can't get it done, they may feel the need to fire him, but don't want to if they don't have one of the Harbaughs lined up. That way you have someone who's a "Michigan man" available who has already been running part of the team, knows the players & recruits, and is ready to go. Smart on Nussmeier's part too - he doesn't get fired by Saban, and is ready if the head job opens up at UM, which was NOT going to happen at Alabama.

"Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's too dark to read."          - Groucho Marx

 

kholmes's picture

That seems to be a common theory but Im skeptical. If Hoke does get fired after this year, it would likely be a result of the offense being very ugly again. If that were to happen, I cant see Brandon then hiring the OC to be the next head coach if the offense was bad...doesnt seem to make sense.

NW Buckeye's picture

Here you go, this is not speculation:

Hoke: "No changes...."

Clearly reported that Hoke said there would be no changes.  So either Hoke is a liar or he was forced to make a change.  You can speculate which case it may be.

+1 HS
kholmes's picture

Obviously neither of us are inside to know for sure but direct quotes after the hiring (see below) state that Hoke did it. I know that a month before this in your article that Hoke said to media questions that "I anticipate the staff returning". My take is its either A) a case of changing his mind after the poor bowl game or B) changing mind due to Nussmeier proactively reaching out to Hoke given Alabama situation (as mentioned by Buckeyevet above) or C) a form of "lying"/coachspeak in not disclosing any info to media in advance of actual decisions being made.

Brandon's quote after hire was:

>>>>

Brandon, meanwhile, shot down speculation that he made the decision to oust Borges and hire Nussmeier, calling that notion "nonsense."

"I'm a big believer that leaders get to pick their teams," Brandon said. "And Brady makes all decisions as it relates to the people he wants to surround himself with to have success.

"When Brady first called me and identified Doug, my first reaction was, 'wow, that would be great, but really?' "

Chief B1G Dump's picture

We know Hoke is a liar...he lied to cover up for Gibbons for a number of weeks at the back end of their season. 

+2 HS
ShowThemOhiosHere's picture

To be fair, any seat that Brady Hoke sits in becomes pretty hot.

Now that the obligatory fat joke is out of the way...it's hard to say just how hot his seat is.  Didn't Dave Brandon recently give a kind of show of support to Hoke, so to say?  I'm thinking that maybe TSUN doesn't want to rush into firing another coach and sending the program into yet another transitional period.  Plus, if you believe John U Bacon, Rich Rod was kind of sabotaged anyway, but Hoke is the so-called TSUN Man, so maybe they're more lenient on him.

The staunch reality, though, is that the program has gone backwards under Hoke.  11 wins, then 8 wins, then 7 wins.  2-1 in rivalry games the first year (OSU/MSU/ND), followed by 1-2 the last two.  Bowl win the first year, bowl losses the last two.  Say what you want about Rich Rod, but at least win totals increased every year.  I have to believe that 7 wins or less this coming season gets him fired.  9+ wins will keep him safe.  8 wins is a gray area - it could go either way depending on how their key games go.  For example, 0-4 vs OSU/MSU/ND/bowl game might get him fired, but beating a rival or two or getting a bowl win might keep him safe.

Class of 2010.

+3 HS
urban86's picture

Listening to the Pillsbury Dough Boy on Steroids interviews are nothing short of painstaking and mind numbing.   It is truly like watching train crash into car...You hate to watch, but you can't help yourself.  Brady Hoke...speaker of the year....NOT

 

ichigan sux ASS
 

BTBuckeye's picture

I hope they do just well enough to keep him around a bit longer. I'm really loving the view from the Meyer vs. Hoke perch!

+1 HS
HilltopHustle's picture

Sticking with my guns here and saying Hoke still needs one of the following to keep his job:

#1: 8-4 with wins over both OSU and MSU

#2: 9-3 with a win over OSU or MSU

#3: 10-2 with losses only to OSU and MSU

+1 HS
BUCKSOMIES's picture

Is that a steel reinforcement bar at the front of that chair under his foot?  Hmmm.

 

kholmes's picture

I think his job is much safer than most think. While fans show outrage over the record, it doesnt mean anything unless Brandon feels the same way.

I think Brandon's view is that Brady has stabilized the program in many ways and as long as the future looks positive no change will be made. In terms of stabilizing the program, Im sure Brandon sees two items that the casual fan doesnt always look at:

-Academics: Michigan team APR is up to 975 (4yr rolling average) now after a couple of years of Hoke which has removed the APR disaster under RichRod. One of the years that just came off the 4yr rolling average was an 897 score - to realize how bad and possibly damaging that number is you need to know that even with a 929 that Oklahoma State had a reduction in practive time. An 897 would result in no bowl games most likely. This is a huge improvement under Hoke and this is something Brandon cares about.

-Attrition: For 2012 and 2013 classes under Hoke, 51 of 52 of the signees remain in the program. This contrasts with the fact that only 7 of 27 recruits under RR's last class made it to their last yr of eligibility (several never even making it to the start of the first season). This stability and lack of attrition is viewed as a positive sign by Brandon as it shows a faith in coaching and a more stable program.

Obviously winning matters and going 0-12 would mean Hoke wont be there after this year. My only point is that Hoke has brought stability to a program that was clearly in disarray and this is something Brandon will value. Profits from Michigan football have never been stronger and this is also important to Brandon. If this were to change dramatically, then Brandon's view could also change. I dont think there is a magic number of wins but its really a question of whether Brandon remains confident in Hoke in the future. Given the stability and returning recruits from good 2012 and 2013 classes, right now there is still that future optimism.

 

+1 HS
IH8UOFM's picture

Brandon still has someone to answer to...he's not the one that pours in millions of his own dollars. I personally am led to believe that anything less than 10 wins and hes cooked.

kholmes's picture

I hear you about Brandon...but Im just not sure the pressure is there yet from any party that matters.

-The money is still rolling from donors..just today UM got a donation to endow  and name the OC job (enter joke here).

-I dont think any pressure would come from new school president that is just starting this year and comes from Brown (so not college sports obsessed).

-Freshman applications for Michigan set another record this year so not affecting applications.

-Former players are in support of Hoke. This was one of the downfalls or RichRod as the former players were calling for his firing from the beginning.

As of right now, it seems like the only people calling for his job are various clowns on Mgoblog and tough guys on Twitter& internet chatrooms.

Chief B1G Dump's picture

Good news!  Keep Hoke at TSUN!

All that tells me is that scUM has accepted being mediocre. 

 

+2 HS
northwoods buckeye's picture

I hear what you're saying, and agree that the tough guys in internet chat rooms should shut the f#^k up, but:

Freshman applications at state schools are up everywhere, since college has gotten so crazy expensive.

U of M is proud of its lofty US News ranking, but its football APR is still behind tOSU's.

A new president might be more likely to fire Hoke for substandard performance since there is no personal relationship. If the new president doesn't know that football is important at UofM, then they could have only come from under a rock. 

I think RRod lowered expectations in Ann Arbor. What should be galling to Michigan fans is that he moved on to Arizona, plays in a tougher conference, with lower ranked recruiting classes, and wins consistently. He should have been successful at U of M as well, so the alumni and former players need to think about their "pedigree" requirement when the next head coaching search comes around.

Conan! What is best in life?

To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.

kholmes's picture

Just a small correction on the APR...not that it is that important but Michigan's is now higher than OSU (975 vs 972) based in the new numbers released two weeks ago. (http://www.elevenwarriors.com/college-sports/2014/05/35784/big-ten-apr).

The numbers are basically the same so not saying one is really any better than the other. I understand why you thought mich was lower than OSU because they were so much lower the last couple yrs (based on 4yr rolling avg) which just shows how much they have improved under Hoke which brandon will clearly notice.

There is a bit of lowering expectations and a recognition of how damaging constant transitions can be to recruiting, attrition, etc...both factor in to his status I think.

Betelgeuse's picture

This is the best answer I've read so far.  Things would have to go really badly this year for Hoke to get fired.  Dave Brandon and most rational Michigan fans are still supportive of our coach for the reasons mentioned above (returned stability, rising APR and negligible attrition).  When Hoke came in, the program was a disaster.  Everyone knew it would take 3-4 years to rebuild.  I kind of think Hoke's first year (11-2 + Sugar Bowl Win) has come back to bite him in terms of fan expectations.

The last thing Michigan fans or Dave Brandon want is to have to rebuild again.  As for this year, I think our defense will be pretty damn good, especially the back seven.  Not sure about the offense.  If our o-line improves, the offense could be pretty decent too.  Looking our schedule, I think we go 9-3 with losses at ND, at MSU and at OSU.  2015 is the real test.  In 2015 we have a favorable schedule and most of our starters will be upperclassmen.  If Hoke can't get us at least 10 wins and compete for the B1G title, we should probably start thinking about a coaching change.

Knarcisi's picture

That there is a lot of seat to heat.

CentralFloridaBuckeye's picture

I think the seat is starting to warm up.  Barring a complete collapse I think Hoke will be back next year.  Looking at their schedule there is no reason to think they won't win 8 or even 9 games.  The OSU and MSU games I've slated as Ls.  Notre Dame will probably beat them too, but hard to say. 

As long as we beat TTUN then I'll be happy! 

Go Bucks!!

Max Power's picture

While I enjoy seeing ttun lose to the mighty Bucks on a yearly basis (the 90s still haunt me), its much sweeter when the victory spoils a possible championship. The energy of the 06 matchup will probably never be replicated. Id like to see our rivals be relevant again. Its always great to post a W in The Game, but its even sweeter when that win is against an elite team. Hoke just isn't the man to get the wolverines back to that point, plain and simple. I do find it amusing at how Michigan fans were so quick to appoint him a savior and defend him when he was hired, when he was their 3rd option at best. Harbaugh, WHIFF. Miles, SWING AND A MISS. Hoke, strike 3 you were out before you even stepped up to the plate.

+1 HS
northwoods buckeye's picture

I don't necessarily think that it was a bad idea to hire him. I'm all for hiring coaches that have success at smaller schools, where the talent levels are more even. It shows they can coach. (See: Tressell, Meyer). But, most good new coaches in this situation have consistently excellent results after year 2 in their jobs. So I think that it's fair to question the hire now.

Conan! What is best in life?

To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.

Max Power's picture

Michigan needs a complete overhaul, beginning with the pizza boy Dave Brandon. I always knew there was a reason that Dominoes Pizza was so terrible

buckguyfan1's picture

Remember when both programs regardless of records had coaches that commanded respect?  The Woody/Bo years were awesome.  Fortunate to have captured some that as a young Buckeye.  I certainly respect Urbz, I wonder how the other side feels. No, I think I already know.   

BrewstersMillions's picture

I hope not. I am really starting to love his Ray Small-esque ability to generate a ton of hype (Gets it! Recruits! Ohio!) and then sort of not really do anything. I don't want Michigan to be bad. I'd love for them to be great and lose to OSU every year but since that won't be happening under Brady, I'm content with Michigan living in College football purgatory each and every season.

He gets it though....

Do I come off as arrogant? Shame on me, I was hoping it would more obvious.

BeijingBucks's picture

Ha.  michigan... only two things making them relevant right now.  The fact they lost to App State (so glorious!!) and the fact we deign to call them our main rival.  if Hoke was at any other B1G school we wouldn't even give him a second thought.  I'm actually glad he came up with 'Ohio' cause he has added nothing else to the rivalry I can think of.

You doubt me?  Quick, who is the coach at Maryland? At Indiana?  Of course you know... but there is that momentary pause where you have to think about it.

 

 

None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. ~ John Milton

+3 HS
Eph97's picture

Don't see UM getting either Harbaugh brother. A successful NFL coach never goes to the college ranks; I can't think of one. Failures at the NFL level go to college all the time. Why would a Superbowl winning coach who doesn't have to deal with the hassles of recruiting step down to the college level? Also, if it comes down to $ the Ravens or the Niners can match $ that any college team can throw at them.

 

+3 HS
buckeyedude's picture

 

What if Hoke loses like say, 60lbs? Would Brandon still keep him?

What if, on the other hand, TTUN loses to Appy State again?

 

 

 

+1 HS
IH8UOFM's picture

Playing Devil's Advocate with Hoke's weight? Not even once...

southernstatesbuckeye's picture

In a close analysis of the Brady Hoke hot seat picture in the article, it is obvious that the only one who has a boner for Hoke is that blue dummy to the left.

Jpfbuck's picture

if you look at Hoke compared to where UM would "want" to be then no he has not succeeded and still needs to prove he is the man for the job

however, if viewed in context to what he took over and the previous regime he has done a reasonable job of steadying the ship and getting turned partially back the way they want it.

Rich Rod went 15-22 overall in 3 years, 6-18 in conference and 4-10 away from home and 11-11 at home

by comparison Hoke has shown significant improvement

he is 26-13 overall, 15-9 in conference, 6-9 away from home and 19-2 at home with both losses being last year by a total of 5 points

so yeah that aren't where they want to be and the trend is down, but they are significantly better than what he inherited and he has made playing in Ann Arbor tough again

I do think that is MSU and OSU both run them by relatively large margins (say 17+), he will need to otherwise run the table to save his job.

If he is competitive and wins 8-9 ie improvement over last year then maybe he gets 1 more.

blueinsconsin's picture

As a Michigan fan I'm giving him through the 2015 season.  The way he started off his Michigan head coaching career was great winning the Sugar Bowl and while the last few season have been disappointing, I am willing to give him through next season when his recruiting classes become upperclassmen.  If Michigan is still hitting the 7-8 win max, he's gone.  I think the only way he gets canned in 2014 is if they really tank and become a 3 win team.  Another 7-8 win season in 2014 and he'll probably be back in 2015, but with a very hot seat.

Not here to troll...Go Blue

Rogabone's picture

TSUN will lose at least 3 games this fall at a minimum IMHO. OSU, ND, MSU and possibly more. If they played WI and NEB they would lose those too for sure. Just don't offer Tom Herman a job after Hoke gets booted. (Fickel is fair play, though).

"Who is that madman?" the new arrival asked St. Peter.

"That's God," St. Peter replied. "But he thinks he's Woody Hayes."

blueinsconsin's picture

If Hoke gets booted, I'm guessing Nussmeier would be the #1 candidate

Not here to troll...Go Blue