The Updated Odds On Participants of the BCS Title Game

November 12, 2013 at 1:11p    by DJ Byrnes    
33 Comments
The Oracle from The Matrix

Via Paul Bessire of predictionmachine.com, there's are the odds of the most-likely BCS title games:

  • Alabama vs. Florida State, 42.7%
  • Baylor vs. Florida State, 8.4%
  • Alabama vs. Baylor, 8.3%
  • Florida State vs. Ohio State, 7%
  • Alabama vs. Ohio State, 6.8%

For a starting point with Bessire's work, here's his dossier on Ohio State:

Current Power Rank: 5
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 80
Undefeated Chances: 48.4%
Closest Remaining Game: B1G Championship Game
Teams that would be favored over Ohio State on a neutral field: Oregon, Alabama, Florida State, Texas A&M, Baylor
Estimated Chances of Going 13-0 and Playing in BCS Title Game: 21.9% (if Ohio State wins out and two of Alabama, Florida State and Baylor lose, OSU should be in) ... If Ohio State just needs Alabama or Florida State to lose to get in, it has a 29.2% chance

So you're saying there's a chance!?


33 Comments

Comments

razrback16's picture

At this point I'm just trying not to worry about it. Completely out of our control, and this farce of a system will be replaced after this season as it is. Just hope we win 'em all. Again. Go Bucks!

Buckeye-in-DC's picture

i agree.
that said, and for what it's worth, anyone else bothered by the fact that per those stats, baylor has a better shot of playing for the title than osu?

I_Run_The_Dave's picture

It appears as though the assumption is that Baylor winning out = jumping OSU in the BCS.  This is probably a valid assumption given their upcoming schedule.  But I seriously doubt that they are going to win out.
I believe he made a note saying that Ohio State's chances are somewhat higher if you don't assume Baylor jumps OSU if they win out, and you just look at OSU, FSU, and Alabama's probabilities at this point.

Buckeye-in-DC's picture

makes sense. 
i too assumed there was no way Baylor was going to win out.  but, i thought they looked pretty legit in dismantling then-#10 (but overrated) oklahoma...

d5k's picture

I don't think you can assume 100% either way for undefeated Baylor jumping undefeated OSU as it will be close and determined by the polls which can swing in unexpected ways.  I think Baylor might have a tiny lead in the computers by the end so OSU would have to maintain a slight lead in the polls to stay above them.
I can't see the link at work, but I'm guessing the odds for Baylor vs OSU are non-trivial as well.

Buckeye-in-DC's picture

BTW, i wasn't assuming Baylor jumping the Bucks - I was just commenting on the odds that Baylor wins out, which I assumed were pretty low until they throttled Oklahoma...

mr.green's picture

farce of a system will be replaced by another farce of a system. Need 8 to make it legit. 

wojodta's picture

Just 4 is fine by me.

Toilrt Paper's picture

Wont happen for at least 12 years as there currently is a 12 year contract between the NCAA and the Networks televising the games.
In the current BCS 2 team system there has never been more than one team with an argument why they should have been 1 of the 2. In a 4 team playoff there will be 2 or 3 schools with an argument why they should have been 1 of the 4. In an 8 school playoff there would be pandemonium since there will be many schools with an argument why they should have gotten 1 of the 8 spots.

bcarp87's picture

How are odds of going undefeated less than 50%?

buckguy10's picture

Probability. If I am remembering by Stats class correctly from college, even if you said OSU had a 90% chance to win each game remaining, the probability of winning all 4 of those games is 66% (.9 x .9 x .9 x .9= .656). I would say the more realistic estimate would be Illinois - 90% chance of winning, Indiana - 90%, Michigan - 80%, MSU - 70%. This would mean the probability of winning all four games is 45.4%.

dwcbuckeye's picture

Math may be accurate, but per game percentages are low.  I would say:
Illinois - 99%
Indiana - 99%
Michigan - 90%
Michigan State - 80%
equals 71% likelihood of going undefeated. 
But I might be biased
 

Run_Fido_Run's picture

Split the difference:
ILL: 0.93
IND: 0.94
MICH: 0.83
BTCG: 0.76
= 0.551

Vabuck213's picture

Im sorry but A&M a favorite? I just gotta believe our offense would put about a 100 (read: a lot) points on that swiss cheese D. I can see the arguments for the other teams but a 2 loss A&M team a favorite over an undefeated OSU team? what is going on?

Run_Fido_Run's picture

Exactly. I'd like to wager on a regular basis with anyone who would give me points if Ohio State faced Texas AM, Oregon, or Baylor.

Hovenaut's picture

PredictMachine?

NOPE. Neo = my social awkwardness. Bullets = words on their way out of my mouth.

Hate Week runneth over

AndyVance's picture

That Baylor would be favored on a neutral field is what chaps my ass about this assessment. That is simply ridiculous, and based solely on the "oh look, shiny things" mentality prevalent in sports today.

Poison nuts's picture

Well, you know, they beat Buffalo worse than OSU did, do obviously they would beat OSU. Every TV talking head worth his salt knows this...Duh!!!

"Do not pass me, just slow down - I can move right through you" Superchunk - Precision Auto.

Run_Fido_Run's picture

But Baylor won by 29 points over Big Game Bob.
("pssst . . . never mind that it's Bob's worst team at Oklahoma since his inaugural 1999 season and that Oklahoma had lost their best offensive player right before the Baylor game).

Phillips.449's picture

I have not given up by any means, but at this point I  am going to enjoy this run. I am going to consider going to the MNC icing on the cake.  At the very least I will enjoy the fact that I will spend another offseason being able to say Urban is undefeated.  (Assuming we take care of our business of course!)

albinomosquito's picture

Let's just take care of our business first.  We need to win out.  If we do that and get left out of the NCG, we would still end up in Pasadena in a pretty respectable bowl where we would have the opportunity to "wipe the floor" with whatever PAC12 powerhouse they throw our way.  It's really a win-win... Though I would love to add to our crystal football collection, there's nothing wrong with beating a good PAC12 team in the Rose Bowl.

ChazBuckeye's picture

So you're telling me there's a chance...

 
 

Some people think we’re the hunted.I don’t feel that way at all.We’re the hunter.Everybody wants an angry football team.Everybody wants a team on edge and a hungry team.If you’re a hunter,that usually equates to being hungry.

IBleedSandG's picture

Neutral field underdog to aTm? That's the Manziel hype machine working right there. They play zero defense. Zero. They are 103rd in total defense. Bracket coverage on Mike Evans, spy John Pigskin with RDS, double digit Ohio State win. 

"You pick up the rifle and go as hard as you can possibly go."
-UFM

ATXbucknut's picture

Why not OSU?

unholy bucknut's picture

This right here is what i'm talking about. Why does the ACC get a pass?

Oyster's picture

Because they are not OSU.

harleymanjax's picture

"Because I couldn't go for 3"

AllDay028's picture

Interesting that the team everyone wants to anoint as better than us is Stanford but they wouldn't be favored over us while A&M and Baylor would.

acBuckeye's picture

Baylor and A&M neutral field favorites?????
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA!!!!!!!!!! That's a good joke right there. Good laugh.

gobucks5413's picture

While I obviously understand the schedule argument, isn't the point of the polls to rank the BEST teams? Not to rank teams on how great their schedule is??
Thats absurd that A&M, Baylor and Oregon would be favorites, I'd take those bets in a heartbeat

acBuckeye's picture

Pollsters should vote based on a balance of how good a team is AND where a team deserves to be. The problem is that voters generally suck at doing this, and lean heavily on one or the other, and sometimes neither.

BoFuquel's picture

Just win. Next year gonna be much worser. These are the good ol' days. GO BUCKS!

I wish I didn't know now what I didn't know then.