11W Sneak Peek: Purdue
Danny Hope brings a new sense of excitement.We’re counting down the weeks until kickoff by profiling a different Big Ten team each week. We decided to switch up the order to reflect 11W’s predicted finish for the upcoming season, which can be found here and we also reached out to fellow bloggers for their inside opinion on important matters.
This week the new regime of Purdue is up and the fellas at Boiled Sports were kind enough to answer a few questions.
With only 12 returning starters from last year’s 4-8 squad, it should come as no surprise that Purdue is picked to finish near the bottom of the conference standings. However, they have 49 returning lettermen, mostly on defense and with a new coach, there is reason for optimism within the Purdue circles.
COACHING: Hope was named coach in waiting before 2008, after spending 5 years as head coach of Eastern Kentucky, where he went 35-22. Tiller obviously brought a certain style of football to the gridiron and Boiled Sports think Hope will approach things a bit differently.
Yes, we expect some changes, mainly being able to move the ball. Everyone still refers to Purdue as “basketball on grass” even though that term was last used on campus probably close to a decade ago. Danny Hope is a defensive minded guy and that’s good, because the defense is the key this season. It’s experienced and actually pretty good — it had to be last year, as the Boilermakers could not move the football for good portions of the season. What will change, most likely, is that we won’t just be a spread offense with a traditional drop-back passer under center (such as Curtis Painter, Kyle Orton, etc.). Joey Elliot will likely be the starter and he is kind of an unknown, but supposedly a “coach on the field” type. We think you’ll see more multi-back formations and the usual assortment of sneaky tricks that Purdue’s offenses have seemed to have in the bag over the years.
OFFENSE: With the spring dismissal of Justin Siller, the aforementioned Joey Elliot should win the starting job as a senior. He has barely played in his previous 3 seasons, throwing just 49 passes, but he created some buzz with his play coming out of spring practice and will have the benefit of a veteran offensive line.
Purdue also has the services of Jaycen Taylor, who is returning from a knee injury that cost him last season. In the previous 2 seasons before that, Taylor ran 1237 yards on 220 carries and scored 8 touchdowns. There isn’t any proven talent behind him, but Boiled Sports tells us to look out for Ralph Bolden, a sophomore who stepped up this spring and is ready to become a horse this year and beyond.
The receivers will be lead by junior Keith Smith, a converted safety, who caught 49 balls last year for 486 yards and could have an All Big Ten season. Behind him is a wide open race, as the Boilermakers lost 5 of their top 7 receivers from last year, but JUCO transfer Aaron Valentin could be a name to remember once the conference season rolls around.
The offensive line should be the strength of this unit, as they return 4 players with starting experience, including sophomore LT Dennis Kelly and senior RT Zach Jones, who each have a chance at All Conference honors. Danny Hope was the OL coach for Purdue from ‘97-’01, but they have only averaged better than 4.4 YPC once since the ‘02 season.
DEFENSE: This unit returns 7 starters from last year and is expected to be the strength of this team. Although they lost their top tackler in Anthony Heygood, Purdue brings back 8 of their top 10 tacklers from the ‘08 season and will get senior linebacker Jason Werner back, who was injured last season.
The line will be lead by Mike Neal and Ryan Kerrigan, who combined for 12.5 sacks last season. They will be joined by DT Kawaan Short, a 6′4″ 310 lbs redshirt freshman, whom Boiled Sports thinks will be the newcomer of the year for Purdue on defense.
The linebackers will be lead by a couple of sophomores, Chris Carlino (true) and Joe Holland (redshirt), who both saw significant time as freshmen, combining for 112 tackles. The secondary has the potential to be one of the B10’s best, with senior returning starters Brandon King and David Pender at corner. Pender had 12 PBU’s in ‘08, while King had 9 of his own, to go along with 48 stops, leading the Boilers in giving up just 183 yards passing per game. At safety, Torri Williams was granted a 6th year by the NCAA and will be joined by senior Dwight McLean, who played in all 12 games last year, registering 2 picks and 36 stops.
KEY GAME: At Oregon, September 12th. Even though it is early in the season, a victory in Eugene would kick start Hope’s career at Purdue. The Boilers open up against Toledo, go to Oregon and then play 5 of their next 6 at home. A win out west could set them up for a potential 4-1 start.
BEST-CASE: For this one, we go back to Boiled Sports.
Everyone — and we do mean everyone — has the Boilermakers pegged to be near the bottom of the Big Ten. We even saw an OSU site [Ed: That would be us] doing team-by-team previews and when they got to IU, they conceded them only three wins, with one coming over Purdue. And that’s really all fine. We absolutely LOVE the direction of our program, new coach Danny Hope and the recruits he’s bringing in. It honestly feels a lot like the beginning of the Tiller era in that nothing at all is expected of the team and so even banging out five wins will make everyone happy. It’s really early to be making predictions but you did just ask for a “best case” scenario. Now, mind you, we don’t necessarily think this is gonna happen, BUT, in an absolute best-case season, we’d see the offense score a reasonable number of points and the defense live up to what it’s clearly capable of, ultimately resulting in a 7-5 regular season. Again, best case.
WORST-CASE: Even though they play 6 of their first 8 at home, those games include Notre Dame, Northwestern, Illinois and Ohio State. They also play 3 of their last 4 on the road, including games in Madison and Ann Arbor. The defense maybe the strength, but I think it is going to take some time for the new offense to kick in and by that time, the D may be wearing down. If Purdue loses at Oregon, then at home against ND, Zooker, and OSU, they are probably looking at another 4-8 or 5-7 season.
The Boilermakers haven’t averaged less than 358 YPG on defense over the last 4 years, leading to just 25 victories over that span and it will probably take another season before the new coaching staff has their plan in place. They miss Iowa and Penn State this year, but their OOC schedule is considered one of the best in the B10, so it will be difficult to gain bowl eligibility, but Hope is here and it will be interesting to see if he can return Purdue to the top tier of the conference.
Good post and good insight. I agree with your order so far, although either Indiana or Purdue could finish last this year. Opening the season at home against Toledo will be a very good gauge of where this team stands. Purdue’s strength will be their DEF and will definitely need it against a very good Toledo team with what I think will have the better OFF of the two. I can easily see Toledo, one of my favorites to win the MAC this year, winning this game. When the odds come out, Purdue will be favored just because but I don’t think it will be by more than 7. I’ll take Toledo. Unfortunately for Purdue, who won’t be able to rely on the type of OFF firepower they’ve enjoyed in the past, that leaves two other games they need to win, at home against N. ILL and at IN to finish the season (although WISC may be very similar to last year lacking a surefire QB and could easily blow this game). That amounts to a very ugly 2-10 season. But, it’s an obvious rebuilding year and the start of a new era. Still hope you win all your OOC games Purdue.
I’m not a big MAC guy but didn’t Toledo have only 3 wins last season? How can you go from 2-6 in conference to MAC Champs?
I guess it’s impossible then. Is this going to be a theme with you Alex? Every post I make you’re going to look to discredit what I’m saying? It’s the MAC and the MAC’s OOC schedule is often from the BCS conferences, whereas the BCS conferences, like the BIG10, play the MAC. MAC teams aren’t going to go undefeated, although Ball ST came close last year. You may not be a MAC guy, but I follow all of CFB and scout all 120 teams every year so that I can wager accordingly. Subsequently, I watch a lot of football as well because W/L don’t tell the whole story. This year in the MAC, Toledo, W. Mich & C. Mich all have a shot as well as a 2nd tier of OH, Akron, BUF & even Kent St have the potential to surprise. So, yes I believe that they not only have a shot at a MAC championship THIS YEAR, but I also believe they will beat Purdue.
Relax run! I was simply asking how? As in I don’t know! Were they a young team? Did they suffer injuries? How will they parlay those things to beat a team like Purdue? Don’t take it personal!
Alright, I’m sorry. I’ve been under terrible stress lately. lol (Anybody know what movie that’s from?) Here’s a good article of a scouting report for Toledo:
http://cfn.scout.com/2/863335.html
Collegefootballnews.com is a good source for decent scouting reports on all 120 teams. Unfortunately they’re mostly written by Pete Fiutak, which you may already know has a serious bias for the SEC and seems to hate on the Buckeyes, which is why it’s only one of the sites where I do my research.
Just to be clear, I love Big10 football and want nothing more than to see Purdue and every other team in it succeed (accept against us, of course). But, you just can’t be overly optimistic with every team or it will add up to more wins than possible.
It’s the MAC and all it takes is decent QB play and a few good players in key areas, ask Ball State.
Good work Corey/11W… and sorry I referred to “an OSU site” and didn’t connect that it was you guys! My bad. (And really, I should have known… are there any other OSU sites out there?)
Nice, thorough job here. I like my sponge baths the same way.
And I’d take 4-8 as a “worst case” right now.
No worries on the “OSU site” the Hoosier fans have called us much worse.
I really like the way your schedule is set up to start the season, especially with a new coach. After reading up on Purdue, they have the chance to surprise everyone, it not like Oregon, OSU, Iowa and PSU blew them out last year.
i am disappointed you didn’t go with the groan worthy obvious pun with danny hope’s name. you can make it up in the future once purdue’s turn on the schedule comes around.
you sure about that? hover your mouse over the picture of danny hope ;-)
oh those tricky boys of 11W
New coaches often inspire a pretty good performance from their teams during their first year. They bring new looks, new plays, they look at their guys more from a “what can this guy do right NOW” instead of, “I told this guy last year that he’s moving to TE, so I need to make good on that.”
Watch for Purdue to surprise. They should have beaten Oregon last year. Up 20-3 after a 4-yard gain on their own 45 with 1 min left in the half, Tiller calls for another pass play that got intercepted…STUPID. Oregon drives and kicks a field goal 20-6. It went to OT and Purdue lost.
Their defense held Ohio State’s offense to zero TDs, and Penn State’s spread HD to just 20. And like it’s mentioned above, they’re returning 8 of their top 10 tacklers. That alone might be good enough to beat their weaker nonconference foes…wouldn’t count them out.
Purdue might have simply suffered from “round-hole/square-peg syndrome” that guys like Tiller and DickRod think wins football games. If Hope has any ounce of real coaching ability, this team could potentially get to 6 or 7 wins. It’s a team everyone’s counting out, but Northwestern is REALLY the team that will bottom-out the Big Ten this year.
I know everyone’s tired of hearing about Florida speed, but I believe Purdue signed 14 players from the Sunshine state. May not mean a whole lot, but they produce some good talent down there, and with 14 guys they’re bound to strike gold at least once.
Not to mention the anticipation of transfer Robert Marve.
“will be joined by DT Kawaan Short, a 6?4? 310 lbs redshirt freshman, whom Boiled Sports thinks will be the newcomer of the year for Purdue on defense.” – why cant OSU get a guy like this, seriously, do we have a DT over 280?
More hate, read the bottom…
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4302839&name=feldman_bruce&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fentryID%3d4302839%26name%3dfeldman_bruce
I am waiting for ESPN to blame tOSU for the economy
Dude, man up. We’re not winning the big games. We DO look like idiots out there, and we looked like fucking idiots in that game against Florida, and we didn’t score any TDs against Penn State or against Texas until the 4th fucking quarter of the 2nd game. In the world of sports, it’s put-up or shut-up. I’m tired of our fucking fans putting links to this shit up here being all whiny.
Quit posting the hate. We know it’s out there.
Our boys need to score TDs, and they need to score lots of them to win. That’s not hate. That’s fucking reality.
Put up. Or shut up. End of story.
I agree with you, bucksfan. it’s time to stop complaining about espn and the media. yes, they suck……big, hairy balls……however, osu has not given me any reason (im talking mostly about last season where i gave up on tressel and his staff) to defend them. ok, beating northwestern by 40+ points isn’t wooing anybody…..it is imperative that osu defeats usc. they need to play like every drive matters and they need to stop the chess match bullshit. not every game has to be won in “holy buckeye” fashion. not every game has to hinge on that last final drive (wisconsin), and not every game has to come down to one critical turnover (penn state). if you need evidence of this, then go ahead and re-watch the florida game and the usc game. they (florida and usc) made a statement. now either osu makes a statement or they continue to stall out. if osu keeps blowing opportunities, then i will just have to consider ohio an athletically challenged state (because let’s face it, other than the columbus crew, there really isn’t any other ohio team, college or professional that is worth its salt at this point…..don’t give me the cavaliers….no championship yet). i can live with runner-up, but not consecutively….and i can live with losing to teams like usc……but i can’t live with 0-7. make a fucking statement, osu.
I don’t let it get to me, I just think it’s comical at this point.