Last Call: Final Predictions, Thoughts, Questions and Players to Watch in Ohio State’s In-State Bout with Toledo

By 11W Staff on September 17, 2022 at 7:30 am
Ronnie Hickman and Tanner McCalister
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For the second time in three weeks, Ohio State will play under the lights at Ohio Stadium tonight.

The Buckeyes’ second home night game of the year will also serve as its non-conference finale, as Ohio State plays its third and final non-conference game against Toledo on Saturday night in the Shoe. Ohio State is favored to win by more than four touchdowns, but both teams enter the game with 2-0 records this season.

What are we thinking about how tonight’s game could play out, what questions need to be answered tonight before the Buckeyes begin conference play and which players will they be counting on to step up against the Rockets? We share some pregame thoughts on all of that below.

Final Thoughts

Ohio State’s defense will finally record a takeaway

This might not qualify as a bold prediction, but it would be a notable moment nonetheless. As successful as the Buckeyes’ defense was in its first two games of the season, it didn’t intercept a pass or recover a fumble in either one. The Buckeyes have come close to several takeaways, though, so I’ll be surprised if the turnover-forcing drought doesn’t end tonight. I won’t be surprised if the first takeaway breaks open the dam and leads to a second or third before the night is over.

– Dan Hope

Toledo keeps it close, if only for a half

I'm higher on Toledo than most, so maybe this will be considered an overreaction to some, but it's not to me. The Rockets, namely quarterback Dequan Finn, will offer the Buckeyes some problems in the first half, moving the ball around on the defense and putting together a touchdown-scoring drive or two. It will be the second half when Ohio State pulls away and makes this game a blowout, similar to how it was last week against Arkansas State.

You heard it here first – don't be surprised if Toledo hangs around for a while but falls away late as Ryan Day's squad proves they are the better team in the final 30 minutes of action.

Chase Brown

OSU has its final opportunity to experiment before Big Ten play starts

While no disrespect is intended for Toledo, a very solid Group of Five team, Ohio State should win comfortably this week to conclude its non-conference slate undefeated. 

Next weekend's matchup with Wisconsin might have lost some luster because of the Badgers' loss to Washington State a week ago, but Wisconsin is still a quality team capable of giving the Buckeyes some fits. 

So Saturday is an opportunity to continue to see which personnel works in what places both offensively and defensively with relatively low-pressure stakes before OSU begins its quest for a Big Ten title next weekend. 

- Garrick Hodge

Questions

Will Henderson snap his sub-100-yard rushing streak?

TreVeyon Henderson has quietly failed to crack 100 rushing yards in each of his past seven performances in a Buckeye uniform. The preseason AP All-American hasn’t hit the century mark on the ground since last October, when he ran for 152 yards and a touchdown against Penn State. In fact, Henderson only has three 100-yard rushing performances in 15 career games thus far. Of course, Henderson’s only just begun his true sophomore season, but expectations have been sky-high ever since his record-setting 270-yard effort against Tulsa early last year.

Henderson’s career average of 6.9 yards per carry suggests it’s only been a relative lack of touches that’s kept him from topping 100 yards in a number of games, and that’s been true the last two weeks as he’s received just 25 total carries. Toledo gave up 205 yards on the ground against UMass in its last game, albeit on 54 attempts by the Minutemen, and Henderson is due for a monster game. Saturday might just be the stage for a showcase from the second-year rusher.

– Griffin Strom

Will another freshman have a breakout performance?

Caden Curry became the first member of this year’s freshman class to truly make a name for himself as a Buckeye with his impressive four tackles in just 12 snaps last week. Depending on if and when the Buckeyes can ultimately pull away from Toledo, this week could be another opportunity – perhaps one of the best opportunities for the remainder of the season – for some freshmen to make their mark. One I’ll have my eye on particularly is Dallan Hayden, who flashed in limited action last weekend as the Buckeyes’ No. 3 running back.

– Dan Hope

Players to Watch

Denzel Burke

No Buckeye drew more scrutiny after the Arkansas State game than Burke, who was pulled from the lineup for part of the game after giving up a 58-yard catch and committing two pass interference penalties. With the spotlight on him tonight after a shaky start to the season, I think Burke bounces back and reminds everyone why he was a Freshman All-American. If he doesn’t, Ohio State will have a cornerback concern entering conference play.

– Dan Hope

Julian Fleming

Jaxon Smith-Njigba will likely receive more eyeballs (and targets) if both Buckeye wideouts return from injury this weekend, but I’m a bit more interested in what Fleming will look like in his 2022 debut. All we’ve heard from Ohio State coaches over the past few months is that the five-star recruit had his best offseason ever, which gave many fans hope that Fleming could finally put it all together in year three. Injuries haven’t let him show the strides he’s taken this season just yet, but perhaps Saturday could be his moment to do so, even if Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. have gained undeniable momentum over the past two weeks.

– Griffin Strom

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Griffin mentioned it in his first sentence, but all eyes will be on Jaxon Smith-Njigba if he returns from injury. In his absence, Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. have stepped up to the plate with fantastic performances against Notre Dame and Arkansas State, respectively. With Smith-Njigba coming back into the fold, I will be watching closely at how much attention C.J. Stroud pays to the star wideout. Will Stroud force-feed him the ball, or will he find him only when he's open? Will Stroud have Smith-Njigba as his No. 1 option, or will he look to Egbuka and Harrison more frequently? I expect Stroud to spread the wealth, which makes me wonder what the receiving stats will look like when the game is all said and done.

- Chase Brown

Emeka Egbuka

Assuming Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Julian Fleming are cleared to play in this game, and Ryan Day said he expects them to be, it'll be incredibly interesting to see how Egbuka is deployed. 

Egbuka has been one of the highlights offensively for Ohio State, and it would be hard-pressed to take him off the field after back-to-back successful weeks, even though Fleming, Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. are all highly touted wideouts. Will Egbuka continue to emerge as a go-to option in the passing game? Or will he see fewer snaps this week with reinforcements seemingly on the way? 

- Garrick Hodge

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